• Toyota could abandon hydrogen in favor of EVs
    44 replies, posted
[QUOTE]The company has always said that electric vehicles are great for shorter journeys, but highway warriors will want more. Toyota's official line is that batteries are expensive, resource-intensive and have long recharge times that make it unsuitable for long commutes. By comparison, filling your car with hydrogen would mirror the experience of the gas pump, and it claims that fuel cells are greener, cheaper and go for longer. But there are plenty of objections to Toyota's argument, including the fact that the cost of replacing all gas pumps with hydrogen stations would be astronomical. Not to mention that sourcing hydrogen isn't as efficient as charging a battery, since you need to expend power (via electrolysis) to produce it in the first place. Alternatively, generating hydrogen through steam reforming still produces greenhouse gases like methane and CO2. [/QUOTE] [url=https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/07/toyota-could-abandon-hydrogen-in-favor-of-evs/?sr_source=Facebook]Source[/url] [url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-electric-cars-idUSKBN13204D?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=581ff53c04d3011ff6328b4a&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter]More detailed source[/url] I don't know if it's because it's where the potential money is or what, but it is surprising considering how well Toyota was doing with their hydrogen development. they arguably were leading the field in that development. But, if it causes the least amount of pain in transition, maybe that is the appeal to the company. I mean no matter what, most of of these alternatives are drastic, and somebody has to take some kind of hit unfortunately.
Shame, hydrogen would actually be pretty kickass if the storage problems were resolved
[quote]including the fact that the cost of replacing all gas pumps with hydrogen stations would be astronomical[/quote] Pumps need to be replaced every decade or so anyway. Bringing in pumps isn't exactly expensive compared to the status quo. Efficiency issues can also be solved with high-temperature nuclear or high-temperature solar thermal. Both can produce hydrogen with a very high efficiency.
I am entirely fine with this, it's been pretty clear for years the pure electric is going to take the industry standard as internal combustion is slowly phased out, so I'm happy to see Toyota going with this flow instead of splitting it in two with hydrogen as a third option.
[QUOTE=download;51322802]Pumps need to be replaced every decade or so anyway. Bringing in pumps isn't exactly expensive compared to the status quo. Efficiency issues can also be solved with high-temperature nuclear or high-temperature solar thermal. Both can produce hydrogen with a very high efficiency.[/QUOTE] If you have a grid run off nuclear then why not just drive EV's? Hydrogen adds unnecessary complexity to an easy problem.
You're all ignoring how dangerous hydrogen is, and that Toyota's flagship hydrogen car basically uses bomb proof fuel tank. Retrofitting gas stations with the proper equipment will [I]never[/I] be cost effective. The proposed transition to hydrogen is actually laughably impossible, and I actually can't believe Toyota gave up their marketed position as the leader in "eco" cars (Prius) to chase an unrealistic pipe dream.
[QUOTE=antair;51322837]I actually can't believe Toyota gave up their marketed position as the leader in "eco" cars (Prius) to chase an unrealistic pipe dream.[/QUOTE] It makes decent sense. It was either gonna be electric or hydrogen. Back when it was time to place your bets if you wanted to be the new leader of the pack, electric was just as nonviable as hydrogen was. It just so happened that electric managed to solve a lot of its' early problems fairly quickly while they still exist in hydrogen. Hydrogen lost out. Toyota put their money on the wrong horse, and they're cutting their losses now; but making the bet wasn't a bad decision. Imagine [I]if[/I] hydrogen had had the kind of breakthroughs electric got during the last decade. Everyone would be going all-in on hydrogen, and anyone who would still be working on electric would be seen as fools.
Does anyone know how lithium supply can keep up if majority of cars moves to electric? At some point the price has to rise.
at some point wouldn't it just be easier to use ICE powered by hydrogen instead if we solved the distribution and storage issues. FCs are still crazy expensive and or too delicate for your average consumer [editline]7th November 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=Vlevs;51322849]Does anyone know how lithium supply can keep up if majority of cars moves to electric? At some point the price has to rise.[/QUOTE] better battery chemistries are already on their way that don't use lithium at all, its just a matter of time and development. If the whole world switched to EVs then the imperative to bring non-lithium batteries to market would be even greater, hopefully speeding up their development. off the top of my head, sulfur appears to be the next big thing because its so abundant we would never run out and its non-volatile compared to lithium ion
[QUOTE=Sableye;51322857]better battery chemistries are already on their way that don't use lithium at all, its just a matter of time and development. If the whole world switched to EVs then the imperative to bring non-lithium batteries to market would be even greater, hopefully speeding up their development. off the top of my head, sulfur appears to be the next big thing because its so abundant we would never run out and its non-volatile compared to lithium ion[/QUOTE] Neat. I understand the biggest hurdle in mainstream EVs was battery technology and more specifically cost of lithium. Can you tell me more about new battery technologies?
[QUOTE=Vlevs;51322873]Neat. I understand the biggest hurdle in mainstream EVs was battery technology and more specifically cost of lithium. Can you tell me more about new battery technologies?[/QUOTE] basically Na-S batteries get more efficient as they are scaled up and they offer a chemistry that is made using extremely abundant materials. The current problem is that they require an opperating temperature of a couple hundred degrees celcius to keep the sodium liquid. Lets just say that using all sorts of clever tricks involving chemistry, nanoparticles, physics and more , they've constructed cells that remain liquid at room temperature which would allow for use in just about everything. There are other chemistries as well being explored such as lithium-oxygen batteries where the lithium uses oxygen instead of lithium ions for a cathode and it also greatly improves energy density. The same sort of bleeding edge material science research has developed cells that store oxygen in microparticles that regenerate.
I'm not sure what sort of car you are driving that could fit a Na-s battery in it? Maybe if we all start driving semis. Lithium isn't a big problem, it's fairly common. Just need new ways to extract it.
[QUOTE=OvB;51322823]If you have a grid run off nuclear then why not just drive EV's? Hydrogen adds unnecessary complexity to an easy problem.[/QUOTE] Energy storage, hydrogen can store far more energy in a cheaper energy cell. EV is the future though...
[QUOTE=Vlevs;51322849]Does anyone know how lithium supply can keep up if majority of cars moves to electric? At some point the price has to rise.[/QUOTE] lithium is abundant. Its very common, although lithium batteries themselves are horrible for the environment, but a neccesary evil until we develop better batteries.
[QUOTE=OvB;51322823]If you have a grid run off nuclear then why not just drive EV's? Hydrogen adds unnecessary complexity to an easy problem.[/QUOTE] Energy drnsity issues of batteries. By the time batteries even approach the energy density of liquid fuel you'll be driving around with a ver powerful bomb in the back of your car.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51323000]I'm not sure what sort of car you are driving that could fit a Na-s battery in it? Maybe if we all start driving semis. Lithium isn't a big problem, it's fairly common. Just need new ways to extract it.[/QUOTE] Na-S doesn't explode for one, also like i said, SMALL batteries, not the huge ones for powerplant use that they've planned
[QUOTE=Matthew0505;51325513]Lithium batteries have around the same energy density of compressed hydrogen, except batteries don't require compressing one of the smallest molecules to hundreds of atmospheres.[/QUOTE] That statement is demonstrably false. Tesla's latest battery has an energy density of 0.9MJ/kg, while the Toyota Mirai which Toyota haven't spent anywhere near as much as Tesla refining has fuel tanks that weigh 87kg with a 5kg hydrogen capacity for an effective energy density of 7.7 MJ/kg. Even if you fed that into an internal combustion engine instead of a fuel cell you'd get a better energy density than batteries. It also avoid the problem of batteries which effectively contain their own oxidiser being incredibly dangerous as their energy density increases.
Tesla's P100D already beats the range of the Mirai. It's not like it's because they are struggling with the tech either. They reuse a ton of stuff from the Prius. The only way to increase the energy density of the hydrogen further is to increase the pressure in the fuel tank, which requires all the pumps to be able to output at a higher pressure. Hydrogen has extremely limited use cases over an EV. It costs more to run, it's more complex and thus more likely to break, and it preserves the unnecessary fueling culture. The Mirai was only intended to keep ZEVs from taking over and make a case against them.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51327184]it preserves the unnecessary fueling culture.[/QUOTE] uh excuse me for picking that out of everything you said but what do you mean by this? several places such as apartment complexes you can't like walk up and plug in your car besides isn't that basically the exact same thing as refueling but for a longer period of time?
[QUOTE=lNloruzenchi;51327195]uh excuse me for picking that out of everything you said but what do you mean by this? several places such as apartment complexes you can't like walk up and plug in your car besides isn't that basically the exact same thing as refueling but for a longer period of time?[/QUOTE] That would change if needed though like for example I know in scandinavian countries pretty much every single apartment parking space already has outlets for people to plug-in their block heaters
[QUOTE=lNloruzenchi;51327195]uh excuse me for picking that out of everything you said but what do you mean by this? several places such as apartment complexes you can't like walk up and plug in your car besides isn't that basically the exact same thing as refueling but for a longer period of time?[/QUOTE] As said that will change over time. It's not the same as refueling. You don't have to go somewhere to fuel up and wait around. You just plug it in like a phone when you get home and then come back when your ready to go and oh look a full tank of fuel.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51327225]As said that will change over time. It's not the same as refueling. You don't have to go somewhere to fuel up and wait around. You just plug it in like a phone when you get home and then come back when your ready to go and oh look a full tank of fuel.[/QUOTE] i uh often forget to charge my phone even if its like nagging me softly at the 10% mark lets hope evs stay just as annoying as regular cars for that
[QUOTE=lNloruzenchi;51327256]i uh often forget to charge my phone even if its like nagging me softly at the 10% mark lets hope evs stay just as annoying as regular cars for that[/QUOTE] Well since ranges are getting up into the couple hundred of miles you should be okay if you forget it for a couple nights if all you've been doing is driving to work. And with phones you keep using them when you get home usually, just plug the car in when you park at home since you won't be needing to use it.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51327184]Tesla's P100D already beats the range of the Mirai. It's not like it's because they are struggling with the tech either. They reuse a ton of stuff from the Prius. The only way to increase the energy density of the hydrogen further is to increase the pressure in the fuel tank, which requires all the pumps to be able to output at a higher pressure. Hydrogen has extremely limited use cases over an EV. It costs more to run, it's more complex and thus more likely to break, and it preserves the unnecessary fueling culture. The Mirai was only intended to keep ZEVs from taking over and make a case against them.[/QUOTE] Except the battery in the Tesla weights 550kg, while the Mirai's fuel tank weighs 87kg. Toyota could easily add another fuel tank (it's small enough for it) and double the range. Reduced weights in the vehicle means better city mileage. Batteries are also seeing diminishing returns on energy density compared to R&D dollars spent while few companies are spending money on hydrogen leaving tonnes of room for improvement. And I lol'ed at the "unnecessary fuelling culture". I guess you'll just replace big oil with big electricity, eh? [editline]8th November 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=Morgen;51327225]As said that will change over time. It's not the same as refueling. You don't have to go somewhere to fuel up and wait around. You just plug it in like a phone when you get home and then come back when your ready to go and oh look a full tank of fuel.[/QUOTE] It takes 2 minutes to refuel a car and much longer to charge a huge batter (and that will be greatly limited by the electricity capacity people have in their homes and business). I think you seriously underestimate how many people will find the charge time a very serious inconvenience.
[QUOTE=thelurker1234;51322788]Shame, hydrogen would actually be pretty kickass if the storage problems were resolved[/QUOTE] Hydrogen cars aren't that effective at converting the fuel to energy to begin with there are much better ways that can do it that have a greater yield but still use Hydrogen.
[QUOTE=download;51327378]Except the battery in the Tesla weights 550kg, while the Mirai's fuel tank weighs 87kg. Toyota could easily add another fuel tank (it's small enough for it) and double the range. Reduced weights in the vehicle means better city mileage. Batteries are also seeing diminishing returns on energy density compared to R&D dollars spent while few companies are spending money on hydrogen leaving tonnes of room for improvement. And I lol'ed at the "unnecessary fuelling culture". I guess you'll just replace big oil with big electricity, eh? [editline]8th November 2016[/editline] It takes 2 minutes to refuel a car and much longer to charge a huge batter (and that will be greatly limited by the electricity capacity people have in their homes and business). I think you seriously underestimate how many people will find the charge time a very serious inconvenience.[/QUOTE] The fuel tank isn't that small though. It's not like there's tons of free space on the Mirai. They can't just slap another tank in without incurring other penalties. The Mirai also lacks in other areas compared to a Model S. The P100D is bigger, [I]ludicrously[/I] quicker, faster, and significantly cheaper to run. Of course the P100D is a lot not expensive but even the base Model S which is only slightly more expensive than a base Mirai has all of the above benefits except range. I expect the Model 3 will have a battery option that would change that though and still cost less. No one's spending money on hydrogen vehicles because they are dumb when you can just so EVs. The charging is really not an issue (at least with Tesla's) in the vast majority of Europe and the US. To improve the charging situation governments should focus on legislation to force landlords and HOAs to allow residents to install home chargers IMO. Tesla is seeing more demand than ever before for EVs. If Toyota was actually serious about the Mirai they would have made a good car. The selling point of the Model S isn't that it's electric, it's that it's a damn good car with tons of groundbreaking features, and has amazing performance. Just happens to be electric. With the Mirai you would only buy it because it's hydrogen, it has no other benefits over other cars in it's price range.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51328288]The fuel tank isn't that small though. It's not like there's tons of free space on the Mirai. They can't just slap another tank in without incurring other penalties. The Mirai also lacks in other areas compared to a Model S. The P100D is bigger, [I]ludicrously[/I] quicker, faster, and significantly cheaper to run. Of course the P100D is a lot not expensive but even the base Model S which is only slightly more expensive than a base Mirai has all of the above benefits except range. I expect the Model 3 will have a battery option that would change that though and still cost less. No one's spending money on hydrogen vehicles because they are dumb when you can just so EVs. The charging is really not an issue (at least with Tesla's) in the vast majority of Europe and the US. To improve the charging situation governments should focus on legislation to force landlords and HOAs to allow residents to install home chargers IMO. [/QUOTE] Citation needed for all that. You're also comparing a small four-door car to a luxury sedan/4-door sports car. To say the Tesla is quicker and use that as a major point is disingenuous. Tesla is selling because of fanboys like yourself. People like you who are willing to gloss over issues that are a no-sell for many people. [editline]9th November 2016[/editline] Costs between them are also completely different because of economies of scale and the fact this is the first serious hydrogen production car. Teslas were expensive when they first came out.
[QUOTE=download;51328337]Citation needed for all that. You're also comparing a small four-door car to a luxury sedan/4-door sports car. To say the Tesla is quicker and use that as a major point is disingenuous. Tesla is selling because of fanboys like yourself. People like you who are willing to gloss over issues that are a no-sell for many people. [editline]9th November 2016[/editline] Costs between them are also completely different because of economies of scale and the fact this is the first serious hydrogen production car. Teslas were expensive when they first came out.[/QUOTE] Economies of scale benefiting EVs is only a thing because Tesla bothered to invest to make it so. Toyota have more money than Tesla to throw around and could've done the same for the Mirai if they so wished. The Model S 60 launched at $59,500 back in the day. The Mirai had an MSRP of $57,500 and does 0 - 60 in just short of 10 seconds. But I guess comparing them isn't fair :weeb: I am fully aware of the issues with EV charging and acknowledge the need for fast charging. As long as you can charge at home it's pretty much good enough. Superchargers will charge the car up faster than most people can get ready. The charging thing is really a non issue once you have used an EV.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51328408]Economies of scale benefiting EVs is only a thing because Tesla bothered to invest to make it so. Toyota have more money than Tesla to throw around and could've done the same for the Mirai if they so wished. The Model S 60 launched at $59,500 back in the day. The Mirai had an MSRP of $57,500 and does 0 - 60 in just short of 10 seconds. But I guess comparing them isn't fair :weeb: I am fully aware of the issues with EV charging and acknowledge the need for fast charging. As long as you can charge at home it's pretty much good enough. Superchargers will charge the car up faster than most people can get ready. The charging thing is really a non issue once you have used an EV.[/QUOTE] Let me guess, it had a 50kWhr battery and a pathetic range for that price? You've also said it yourself that Toyota haven't spent anywhere near what Tesla have spent yet have a vehicle that beats theirs in range. You're not going to have superchargers that can charge a car in 10 or 20 minutes because the 200-400 kW electricity connections don't exist outside of factories. It means spending loads of money installing new transformers on power lines and new wiring everywhere.
[QUOTE=download;51328476]Let me guess, it had a 50kWhr battery and a pathetic range for that price? You've also said it yourself that Toyota haven't spent anywhere near what Tesla have spent yet have a vehicle that beats theirs in range. You're not going to have superchargers that can charge a car in 10 or 20 minutes because the 200-400 kW electricity connections don't exist outside of factories. It means spending loads of money installing new transformers on power lines and new wiring everywhere.[/QUOTE] A 60 kWh pack with only 100 miles less range than the Mirai. Tesla didn't have any kind of economies of scale built up then. Have you heard of the Supercharger network? It outputs 150 kW per two stalls. Connecting them to the grid isn't a problem or the limiting factor. In less than 5 years Tesla have built a massive network up from nothing. Toyota have done almost nothing and had to stop sales of the Mirai because the 5 hydrogen stations in California didn't work. They only expected to sell 300 this year even before they had to stop sales. Even Tesla delivered several thousand in their first year of selling the Model S.
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