Alabama Special Election Senate Thread - Dec. 12, 2017. - DOUG JONES WINS -
828 replies, posted
[QUOTE=Omilinon;52971381]Just wait. People are already going hysterical saying one candidate is winning over the other. The votes are still rolling in. Wait until most of them have gotten in.[/QUOTE]
More than half of the votes have now been counted
anyone else following the [url=https://www.politico.com/interactives/elections/2017/alabama/special-election/dec-12/]politico live report[/url], specifically the vote shift from 2016 (which for some reason is idiotically small)? weren't there counties that had shifted more republican that disappeared/swung the other way, just now?
[QUOTE=Bob The Knob;52971393]More than half of the votes have now been counted[/QUOTE]
More than half of the [I]precincts[/I] have now been counted. That does not mean half the votes.
[QUOTE=AbioFlesh;52971377]So is the voter suppression ever going to be addressed?[/QUOTE]
If Moore wins, no, it won't be. If Jones wins, the GOP are going to raise all manner of hell demanding recounts only to be fucked by their own dickery and, likely in a massive and hilarious display of short-sightedness, call for investigations into election cheating.
[QUOTE=Riller;52971397]More than half of the [I]precincts[/I] have now been counted. That does not mean half the votes.[/QUOTE]
According to the Upshot estimate, 56% of votes have been counted (it's at the bottom of the page)
Shall we gather on the politics FP discord and watch together?
<-link removed, it's over->
[QUOTE=Bob The Knob;52971401]According to the Upshot estimate, 56% of votes have been counted (it's at the bottom of the page)[/QUOTE]
Oh, you are correct, I'm sorry. I was looking at the 64 on the top of the page. Still, the half that has been counted only contains about 20% of the urban vote, if you look at Mobile, Jefferson, Shelby and Madison counties.
Jones' margin is shrinking but he still has the advantage. 65% chance of winning.
Even if Moore wins (still likely), he will barely have any mandate considering he almost lost to a Democrat in [i]Alabama[/i]
So I'm currently watching the satellite feeds from both HQs. The guy who just did the mic check at the Roy Moore HQ started eating while halfway through, you can hear his lips smack.
[video=youtube;LkZOlKlJJzo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkZOlKlJJzo[/video]
[QUOTE=marcoman99;52971411]So I'm currently watching the satellite feeds from both HQs. The guy who just did the mic check at the Roy Moore HQ started eating while halfway through, you can hear his lips smack.
[video=youtube;LkZOlKlJJzo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkZOlKlJJzo[/video][/QUOTE]
Also Roy Moore's election party is displaying the results page of the failing liberal fake news New York Times
holy shit
dougie might actually do this
[QUOTE=Judas;52971367][t]https://prod01-cdn07.cdn.firstlook.org/wp-uploads/sites/1/2016/11/nytchances-1000x495.png[/t]
please guys, be reasonable here
I dont wanna be a huge pessimist but save your party hats until its been called for good[/QUOTE]
While many primary poll analytic services made some pretty big leaps in their estimations, it's important to note that we're still just dealing with statistics and probabilities. As 538 repeatedly cautioned, paths to victory [I]did[/I] exist for Trump, they just relied on a few more ducks falling in a row than they did for Hillary. As it so happens, the exact conditions outlined for a Trump victory to occur actually came to pass. While Hillary may have swept the election in the popular vote, the decision came down to a few key states that Trump edged her out in due to favorable voter turnout among his demographics, with relatively little enthusiasm among Clinton's.
To wit, poll analytic services are still valuable, but never assume that a high probability of victory means that victory is assured.
[QUOTE=TheFishyG;52971416]holy shit
dougie might actually do this[/QUOTE]
"Sir, Roy Moore is gaining a lead in the polls, what should we do?"
"Call for help."
According to nate cohn (nytimes stat guy) the confidence is not going up. it's still very shaky.
[url]https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940775895001976833[/url]
The fucking vote difference between Jones and Moore on 538 is both hopeful and distressing at the same time.
Come on Jones!
[QUOTE=Riller;52971076]To be honest I didn't know you could swear on anything but the bible in the US. I mean, you guys have IN GOD WE TRUST on your god damn money, for fucks sake.[/QUOTE]
That's a fairly recent thing in our country's history. They had it on some of the early bills and coins, but it wasn't codified into law that it had to be on [B][I]all[/I][/B] of our money until 1956, the reasoning being none other than to separate our country from the "godless commies" over in Soviet Russia.
Nate Silver is predicting that the remaining vote should strongly be in favor of jones
[QUOTE=purvisdavid1;52971445]The fucking vote difference between Jones and Moore on 538 is both hopeful and distressing at the same time.
Come on Jones![/QUOTE]
I'm taking solace in the estimation that most of the remaining votes to be counted are in traditionally blue counties. Here's hopin!
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52971129]Polls closing soon.
Check [url=https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones]here[/url] for live results as they come in[/QUOTE]
I'm actually surprised they're predicting Doug Jones to win, even if by a thin margin. Wishful thinking perhaps? I sure hope not.
At the White House, the President stares pensively at his pro-Moore tweet as his thumb hovers over the delete button
NYT shows a .7% difference in votes with Moore leading by that tiny margin
what is going on
As of now, Moor has a 0.7% lead per NYT
I'm staring at that "projected vote margin" graph near the bottom of nytimes page.
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones[/url]
Chances of winning according NYT in favor of Jones is rising
Jones' chance of winning back up to 75%
Holy shit today is going to be a disaster for the Republicans
[QUOTE=Bob The Knob;52971453]At the White House, the President stares pensively at his pro-Moore tweet as his thumb hovers over the delete button[/QUOTE]
I'm expecting him to call the election 'RIGGED!' if Moore loses.
Holy fuck this is going to be close.
77% HAHA
Calling it. Jones wins.
[QUOTE=Chaitin;52971460]Chances of winning according NYT in favor of Jones is rising[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I checked about half an hour ago and moore had a sizable lead but that lead has disappeared, presumably as urban precincts are counted
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