• Alabama Special Election Senate Thread - Dec. 12, 2017. - DOUG JONES WINS -
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[QUOTE=Riller;52971307]A third of [I]precincts[/I], not a third of voters. Almost none of the dense, urban precincts have reported yet. Those are the classic democratic areas.[/QUOTE] This is a spitball guesstimate with a lot of pessimism behind it. Not to mention that the south is unpredictable.
NYT live predictions are now at 76% for Jones, 4.7 point margin. ... are things finally going right for once?
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52971317]This is a spitball guesstimate with a lot of pessimism behind it. Not to mention that the south is unpredictable.[/QUOTE] It's just waaay too early to call it for Moore when only 0.5% of Mobile's votes are counted, and that city currently has a 67% Jones bias. Only a quarter of Birmingham is counted, and it stands at 83% Jones. Cities tip the scales waaay more than dozens of bumfuck-nowhere rural republican counties that know how to count fast 'cause they only got 87 ballots to count.
[QUOTE=gman003-main;52971323]NYT live predictions are now at 76% for Jones, 4.7 point margin. ... are things finally going right for once?[/QUOTE] Honest to goodness I wonder how they're calculating it
[QUOTE=gman003-main;52971323]NYT live predictions are now at 76% for Jones, 4.7 point margin. ... are things finally going right for once?[/QUOTE] It looked that way for Hillary too right up until it swung the other direction. I'm hedging my bets until at LEAST 70% of precincts are reporting in.
The predictions, I mean [editline]12th December 2017[/editline] Merge, fuk [editline]12th December 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Riller;52971324]It's just waaay too early to call it for Moore when only 0.5% of Mobile's votes are counted, and that city currently has a 67% Jones bias. Only a quarter of Birmingham is counted, and it stands at 83% Jones. Cities tip the scales waaay more than dozens of bumfuck-nowhere rural republican counties that know how to count fast 'cause they only got 87 ballots to count.[/QUOTE] I guess I'm used to the weird electoral system which, obviously, doesn't apply here.
That Upshot swing is because Russell County just closed with a huge unexpected lead for Jones, so big that their editor is unsure if it's legit or an error [media]https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940767040603815936[/media] If it's real then it's quite possibly gg rip Roy Moore
Always with the democratic preference in the predictions, oh man, if Trump showed us anything. We have to see I guess.
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52971325]Honest to goodness I wonder how they're calculating it[/QUOTE] From what it looks like, they took a map of last election results, skewed it to a 50/50 result (since the polls were basically even), then used that as priors for a basic Bayesian statistical engine. So if one candidate outperforms expectations in early results, that updates probabilities for districts that haven't reported yet. Moore seems to be underperforming in general. Turnout seems low in heavy-red districts and blue districts are voting bluer than expected. Too early to call it, though I remain hopeful.
Don't count your chickens till they hatch
[QUOTE=Bob The Knob;52971334]That Upshot swing is because Russell County just closed with a huge unexpected lead for Jones, so big that their editor is unsure if it's legit or an error [media]https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940767040603815936[/media] If it's real then it's quite possibly gg rip Roy Moore[/QUOTE] too bad they cant recount to see if its legit
I feel pretty optimistic, honestly. Don't want to jinx it ofc, but many of the big city centers are nowhere near done reporting and as it's been said before, they vote heavy, heavy Dem, especially Bham and Huntsville. Obviously it's too early to call it one way, but my entire family is from this state, I've spent a good portion of my life here and I know that there are quite a lot of stereotype-defying, good, honest, critical-thinking people in this state who won't stand for this trash any longer. I really, really want to believe that. Let's hope they prove me right.
[QUOTE=gman003-main;52971323]NYT live predictions are now at 76% for Jones, 4.7 point margin. ... are things finally going right for once?[/QUOTE] don't get your hopes up, it ain't over until its over
Upshot is now at 90% Jones Is It Really Happening
From NYT [IMG]https://i.imgur.com/qd0a3nr.png[/IMG]
Bear in mind major population centers in Alabama have yet to report, Jones should run up his scores in these key areas.
I hope a loss doesn't dissuade the Dems from trying as hard as Doug Jones. He's been on the ground holding multiple events every day, getting people to be politically active, connecting with his voters. Some people say he's another uninspiring Hillary-esque politician, but really? What ridiculous standards do we have for inspiration at that point? I feel like that's a judgement people only make if they can't look past how, compared to Roy Moore, Doug Jones is a lot less "colorful" - and thank god for that
ABC still has Moore 54-45
Jesus corpsefucking Christ, an eight point win would be ridiculous. It's already swung back a bit but I'd be ecstatic with any victory, it doesn't [I]need[/I] to be a landslide.
[QUOTE=Wii60;52971356]From NYT [IMG]https://i.imgur.com/qd0a3nr.png[/IMG][/QUOTE] [t]https://prod01-cdn07.cdn.firstlook.org/wp-uploads/sites/1/2016/11/nytchances-1000x495.png[/t] please guys, be reasonable here I dont wanna be a huge pessimist but save your party hats until its been called for good
[QUOTE=The Rifleman;52971363]ABC still has Moore 54-45[/QUOTE] Again, [I]does not fucking matter[/I] as long as the big cities haven't reported yet. So far, it's pretty much exclusively a polling of Christian suburbs and rural cousin-fuckers because big, urban areas take [I]hours[/I] to count and report.
[QUOTE=Zukriuchen;52971361]I hope a loss doesn't dissuade the Dems from trying as hard as Doug Jones. He's been on the ground holding multiple events every day, getting people to be politically active, connecting with his voters. Some people say he's another uninspiring Hillary-esque politician, but really? What ridiculous standards do we have for inspiration at that point? I feel like that's a judgement people only make if they can't look past how, compared to Roy Moore, Doug Jones is a lot less "colorful" - and thank god for that[/QUOTE] That, and it [I]is[/I] Alabama...
So is the voter suppression ever going to be addressed?
[QUOTE=Wii60;52971356]From NYT [IMG]https://i.imgur.com/qd0a3nr.png[/IMG][/QUOTE] As of now, it is 72% for Jones
Hell, that Moore isn't at 75% right here before cities report is a huge indication that Jones is probably gonna win.
Just wait. People are already going hysterical saying one candidate is winning over the other. The votes are still rolling in. Wait until most of them have gotten in.
[QUOTE=AbioFlesh;52971377]So is the voter suppression ever going to be addressed?[/QUOTE] Probably not.
[QUOTE=The Rifleman;52971382]Probably not.[/QUOTE] Even if Jones were to win, it wouldnt be.
[QUOTE=Judas;52971367][t]https://prod01-cdn07.cdn.firstlook.org/wp-uploads/sites/1/2016/11/nytchances-1000x495.png[/t] please guys, be reasonable here I dont wanna be a huge pessimist but save your party hats until its been called for good[/QUOTE] Clinton actually won the popular vote, it's just that Trump won the Presidency because of the technicalities of the electoral college; winning more states than Clinton even though those states he won had smaller populations. This is a direct election, so the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the election. But yes Moore still has a chance of winning; just like how Trump always had a chance of winning the Presidential election.
[QUOTE=Riller;52971307]A third of [I]precincts[/I], not a third of voters. Almost none of the dense, urban precincts have reported yet. Those are the classic democratic areas.[/QUOTE] AT the time of my typing this post, according to the NYT live map, BHam is 81.7% Jones with 63 precincts in, and Huntsville is 34/73 reporting in and 57.3% Jones. Mobile is 11/190 and already showing a landslide 77.5% for Jones. I'll be shocked if Jones doesn't obliterate Moore in the dense urban areas. NYT map shows it at 53/46 right now in favor of Moore. Those urban votes will cause a huge Jones swing, hopefully it's big enough.
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