• Japan: Abe calls snap election
    59 replies, posted
[QUOTE=MedicWine;52715951]I mean YOMI would have to back me up on this, but isn't like.. a known thing that Japan is very difficult to emigrate to?[/QUOTE] Exceedingly. You basically have to have a degree, be fluent in Japanese and have a job offer from a company just to get your visa.
[QUOTE=F.X Clampazzo;52715969]Exceedingly. You basically have to have a degree, be fluent in Japanese and have a job offer from a company just to get your visa.[/QUOTE] Wow you have to actually speak the language and have a job so that you aren't a leach on their social programs? Wow very unreasonable. Japan has a shrinking population but it still has a very very high population density and isn't in danger of going extinct. A shrinking population is better than an indefniently increasing population. This is an economic, not an immigration problem if anything. [editline]25th September 2017[/editline] I should note I've had maybe 4-5 Japan offers with passable conversational Japanese with no certifications fresh out of university. The problem is the highest offer was less than half my current salary. Hard to bring in professionals when you can't compete economically.
[QUOTE=Mr_Razzums;52716076][B]Wow you have to actually speak the language[/B] and have a job so that you aren't a leach on their social programs? Wow very unreasonable. Japan has a shrinking population but it still has a very very high population density and isn't in danger of going extinct. A shrinking population is better than an indefniently increasing population. This is an economic, not an immigration problem if anything. [editline]25th September 2017[/editline] I should note I've had maybe 4-5 Japan offers with passable conversational Japanese with no certifications fresh out of university. The problem is the highest offer was less than half my current salary. Hard to bring in professionals when you can't compete economically.[/QUOTE] This is funny from my POV because, without getting into to much detail, most of the jobs I've had are from immigrants that don't even speak English. So from my perspective the Italians and Mexicans that immigrated, but didn't integrate, are the only reason I get paid. (I have stretched ears and dreads and stuff and immigrant employers tend to only care about work ethic, hospitality, and character) That's what seems so backwards about Japan. I could never in my life dream of emigrating to Japan running a small restaurant or something, because of it's exclusivity. But at the same time I sit here in America and only eat because of people who did exactly that and speak less English than I do Japanese. Bonus/tangent content: I once trolled the boss man by answering the phone "Ay whadup widdit?" and he responded by telling me to fuck myself in English and then in (loose) Italian asked me to confirm that I understood the intent of the message and was offended. :v:
Backwards is relative.
[QUOTE=F.X Clampazzo;52715969]Exceedingly. You basically have to have a degree, be fluent in Japanese and have a job offer from a company just to get your visa.[/QUOTE] If you're not being sarcastic, that sounds on par with most countries. Having a 4 year degree, several years of work experience, speaking fluent English, and being in the highest scoring age bracket group wasn't enough to qualify me for a Canadian visa without a written offer of employment.
It is partly true that immigration may wind up not being a perfect long-term solution, the same population trends are encroaching upon third world countries too as they develop. In the worst possible case, we'd have countries like Japan, the US, etc. begging for people to come while other countries ban their citizens from leaving. That's quite a long while into the future though, and it's only a possibility. For now, immigration will be better than jamming another few hundred billion into the economy and wondering why its not working.
[QUOTE=YOMIURA;52715867]hahahahahaha Look, look hard, and you will see the 30 years of doing everything but fix our immigration draws has done absolutely NOTHING. The token efforts you see are LDP Self-congratulation to do what you are saying: say that immigration is not working red herring, make half attempt on your other solutions, then fygm. Go ahead please, lay some plan of how to execute a combination of your alternate solution than immigration draws, then I can say just how badly it has already worked. We've tried, and too many too proud to consider the simplest option with even a brick to fall on our face. You people remember 2012 no?[/QUOTE] well think about it this way, how are you going to manage the actual logistics of it? where are all of these immigrants actually going to come from? china? korea? russia? europe? all places with their own demographic issues? i don't think you realise that much of the world is also aging and short on labour. china has a shrinking workforce, as does south korea and many other nations. like, how is immigration even going to be remotely feasible when loads and loads of countries will be likely competing for immigrants as the demographic crisis worsens and Japan itself would need to bring in hundreds of thousands of people every year? and if immigrants settle down, what about the existing low birthrates which will mean you'll have to keep bringing in immigrants? what about the unsustainable and massive debt bubble and the fact the country has been in decline for decades? even assuming japan sets up loads of programs for fast tracking immigrants, sets up japanese language classes, work placements, etc, why are they going to want to go to japan when there are many other countries that are just as (if not moreso attractive)?
[QUOTE=Mr_Razzums;52716215]Backwards is relative.[/QUOTE] I can't agree rating here but yea I agree. In this case however I really just meant 'ironic'.
[QUOTE=MedicWine;52716208]This is funny from my POV because, without getting into to much detail, most of the jobs I've had are from immigrants that don't even speak English. So from my perspective the Italians and Mexicans that immigrated, but didn't integrate, are the only reason I get paid. (I have stretched ears and dreads and stuff and immigrant employers tend to only care about work ethic, hospitality, and character) That's what seems so backwards about Japan. I could never in my life dream of emigrating to Japan running a small restaurant or something, because of it's exclusivity. But at the same time I sit here in America and only eat because of people who did exactly that and speak less English than I do Japanese. Bonus/tangent content: I once trolled the boss man by answering the phone "Ay whadup widdit?" and he responded by telling me to fuck myself in English and then in (loose) Italian asked me to confirm that I understood the intent of the message and was offended. :v:[/QUOTE] I'm not sure if that's true. Most countries immigration policies from what I've seen make exceptions if you have the capital and plans to open a business. For westerners people over-hype how difficult it is to get into Japan. You do need a degree, (which isn't unusual) but a lot of people get in by teaching English and then once they have more long-term residency permits they branch out into other things. We aren't talking about westerners immigrating, otherwise the US wouldn't have an immigration problem either, it's more the South East Asian unskilled labor types.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52715616]spending money on infrastructure doesn't necessarily mean you'll have decent infrastructure. not all of japan is as well-off and well-presented as Tokyo is[/QUOTE] I thought Japan's infrastructure was generally pretty good because it has to be. It's an island nation in the middle of 3 tectonic faults
I've actually written a paper about Japan and its problem concerning the labor shortage it has maintained (for a relatively dynamic period of time) sometime ago in college. "Labor shortage" can be defined in two aspects: the fall of employment as a result of a concurrent effect in which an aging population remains a large part of the country (around 33% of the population is over the age of 60, compared to the United States' 14%) and that the deficit of labor market entries (pertaining to exits) as a result of declining population. A combined effort can be seen by the ridiciously-large wage gap and employment between men and women, and the lack of immigration by most Western nations' standards. In this manner, there's both "demographic labor shortages", as well as "labor market shortages". The construction industry in Japan, for instance, is in an incredible stagnation, relating to a downward trend due to the increasing median age of Japanese construction workers, leading to a marginal ratio between labor demand and supply to be staggering (a ratio of 7:1 job offerings to seekers in 2016). [QUOTE]As a result, the multiplier of public expenditure has already decreased to almost one, and an unprecedented number of government orders of public works are not accepted by the construction companies. [URL="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mwakatabe/2014/12/12/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-abenomics/#1e130b2a20cd"]Masazumi Wakatabe, Forbes[/URL][/QUOTE] Pertaining to the "demographic" labor shortage of notions, there are two scenarios: [B]Scenario A:[/B] This is the "negative" outlook, in which the real economic growth rate is exceedingly near 0%, and the participation in the labor market will decline from 59.6% (2010's percentage) to 54.3% in 2030. The labor force is expected to decrease from 66.3m to 54.5m. [B]Scenario B:[/B] This is the "positive" outlook, where the real growth rate is estimated to be around 2%, and the labor participation increases to 60.1% (by 2030). In this instance, however, the Japanese labor force will still decrease to 62.9m. [IMG]https://i.imgur.com/yPcFfDz.png[/IMG] (Basically, Japan's labor markets are very unstable and almost all point toward a marginal to fast decline in labor vacancy and entry shortfall). There's a [I]lot more[/I] within the paper (if you PM me, I'll try to find a copy of it if you're interested). But essentially, the significance (multitude of policy options that can alleviate labor shortage) is: [QUOTE]- The attraction of domestic workers by a steady increase of wages - The attraction of less-represented demographics within the population (women in specie) - A re-allocation of investment away from already over-saturated industries (ex: the medical sphere) and a greater focus in declining markets (the service sector in specie) - A decreasing vacancy rate (essentially labor shortages being measured by a narrower view of the markets) by the utilization of foreign labor supply[/QUOTE]
The problem with raising wages (despite being good for this situation) is that it's incredibly hard to achieve, [i]especially[/i] so for Japan's case. Simply raising minimum wage won't do it, and wages are supposed to increase over time especially when labor markets tighten up, but Japan's wages have been stagnant for so long despite this. I noticed how your 'good' outlook still predicts a labor decline, does that also include immigration measures or just domestic ones? I'd love to read your paper!
[QUOTE=ForgottenKane;52715608] I know you hate immigrants Sobotnik, but how do you suggest to fix the taxpayer problem? Create them out of thin air? Please.[/QUOTE] Sobotnik is himself an immigrant. Don't be a cock.
[QUOTE=ForgottenKane;52717592] I noticed how your 'good' outlook still predicts a labor decline, does that also include immigration measures or just domestic ones? I'd love to read your paper![/QUOTE] Short answer: Both. Long answer: Both, but there's a reason for the decline. The "positive" outlook denotes a labor [I]force[/I] decrease, not labor participation. This regards that the older generation within Japan is dying off, but the changes made by checked immigration increase and effective policies have not made their full impact quite yet (but the vacancy rate is decreasing by a population basis). It will take around 30 years (perhaps more) of steady economic work for Japan to be on the path of a general increase in labor market growth and reach of equilibrium. This is added more by the fact that Japan pays quite a bit less on active labor policies than other first-world/advanced countries, and it takes a lot more time for stagnant governmental activity in the economy to begin to "accelerate". They also maintain the second-lowest immigration countries within OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, only behind Mexico. This process can be made faster through more radical policy change and immigration control, but obviously, there comes setbacks.
[QUOTE=Chris Morris;52717616]Sobotnik is himself an immigrant. Don't be a cock.[/QUOTE] I'm not going to comment on Sobotnik one way or another but there is absolutely fucking nothing that says that immigrants can't be anti-immigrant. Hell, it is often immigrant communities (second generation generally) that tend to be the most vociferously anti-immigrant. There was an interesting breakdown of it around the Brexit vote, for instance.
[QUOTE=download;52715909]Japan's record low unemployment rate is evidence that the Japanese population is aging and they don't have enough people to fill jobs.[/QUOTE] Yes, which is hardly the fault of attempting to keep the economy running in a healthy state. [QUOTE]Japan's growth is also not "stable", it's completely stagnant and lags greatly behind pretty much every other first world nation.[/QUOTE] Stagnant growth? I'm going off of articles like this from last month: [url]https://www.ft.com/content/848dad38-809e-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff[/url] Also I was referring to growth in real wages, but admittedly I can't actually find any corroborating analysis except for one random unsourced chart from a professor's blog on the topoc
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52718168]Yes, which is hardly the fault of attempting to keep the economy running in a healthy state. Stagnant growth? I'm going off of articles like this from last month: [url]https://www.ft.com/content/848dad38-809e-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff[/url] Also I was referring to growth in real wages, but admittedly I can't actually find any corroborating analysis except for one random unsourced chart from a professor's blog on the topoc[/QUOTE] A "streak" means nothing, their growth rate is far below everyone else.
[QUOTE=download;52718242]A "streak" means nothing, their growth rate is far below everyone else.[/QUOTE] I guess a better question is: what exactly is your definition of stagnant? Its growth is similar to Australia's as far as I can tell, and New Zealand's, and we're generally regarded as enviable economies.
While sobotnik here seems arbitrarily contrarian or even reactionary; his points, however contraversial, have merit. Sub zero replenishment decline theory says that the "rise and fall" pattern of civilizations is explained by first success and surplus(rise) leasing to increased centralization (lower tolerance to change), urbanisation and lower infant mortality. People on urban cultures have less kids due to the lower mortality and the high population density lead to lower labido and lower fertility. The population having less kids leads to an aging population which can no longer support itself (fall) John calhoun explored this in his[URL="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/"] rat paradise[/URL] experiment. The changes are intergenerational (epigenetic). Immigration is a temporary fix and deurbanisation (according to the theory) is a long term fix. Both would be neccissary since it would take a long ass time to fix.
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52718290]I guess a better question is: what exactly is your definition of stagnant? Its growth is similar to Australia's as far as I can tell, and New Zealand's, and we're generally regarded as enviable economies.[/QUOTE] I presume you pulled that out of your ass? [img]https://i.imgur.com/Ix37Z10.png[/img] [url]https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2016&locations=AU-JP&start=2000[/url]
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52718290]I guess a better question is: what exactly is your definition of stagnant? Its growth is similar to Australia's as far as I can tell, and New Zealand's, and we're generally regarded as enviable economies.[/QUOTE] I hope you realize a difference of two percent when it comes to GDP growth is absolutely massive. Like, a growth rate of 4% is incredible, and a growth rate of 2% is decent-to-good. Japan's 1% is [i]awful[/i] compared to other countries. If Japan's growth was at 0%, that's not just stagnant, that would be catastrophic. So don't talk out of your ass. Take a basic economic course and try to understand what you're saying before posting about this like you know about it. [editline]26th September 2017[/editline] Like, China has some of the most incredible GDP growth on the planet and it's at nearly 7%, and we already assume a large part of that number is fudged. Despite that, it's insane. And mind you, as a country becomes more developed, it's growth rate slows down a lot. So when we talk about GDP growth we talk about it with developed vs undeveloped countries in mind, and Japan is a developed country and it's peers all have ~2% or higher GDP growth and that's considered good. By comparison, Japan's 1% is stagnant and on the verge of regressing at any moment if things go bad.
[QUOTE=MedicWine;52716208]This is funny from my POV because, without getting into to much detail, most of the jobs I've had are from immigrants that don't even speak English. So from my perspective the Italians and Mexicans that immigrated, but didn't integrate, are the only reason I get paid. [/QUOTE] The United States is strong because of its rich history of immigration. It's part of our culture. Japan is [I]not[/I] the same. At all. They were not built on the same foundation we were. Also, it's important to note that while the US does not have an official language, Japan does.
[QUOTE=download;52718504]I presume you pulled that out of your ass? [IMG]https://i.imgur.com/Ix37Z10.png[/IMG] [URL]https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2016&locations=AU-JP&start=2000[/URL][/QUOTE] Nope. Was looking at the charts on trading economics, which for some reason doesn't have such a huge difference. Go to [URL]https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth[/URL] Tell it to compare with Japan GDP Growth Rate and you get this [IMG]https://i.imgur.com/Th1f7Ul.png[/IMG] Since the hilarity that was the attempt at a sales tax, we haven't been too terribly different - Australia goes higher, but then goes lower [wait axises, derp] [QUOTE=ForgottenKane;52719518]I hope you realize a difference of two percent when it comes to GDP growth is absolutely massive. Like, a growth rate of 4% is incredible, and a growth rate of 2% is decent-to-good. Japan's 1% is [I]awful[/I] compared to other countries. If Japan's growth was at 0%, that's not just stagnant, that would be catastrophic. So don't talk out of your ass. Take a basic economic course and try to understand what you're saying before posting about this like you know about it. [editline]26th September 2017[/editline] Like, China has some of the most incredible GDP growth on the planet and it's at nearly 7%, and we already assume a large part of that number is fudged. Despite that, it's insane. And mind you, as a country becomes more developed, it's growth rate slows down a lot. So when we talk about GDP growth we talk about it with developed vs undeveloped countries in mind, and Japan is a developed country and it's peers all have ~2% or higher GDP growth and that's considered good. By comparison, Japan's 1% is stagnant and on the verge of regressing at any moment if things go bad.[/QUOTE] This is clearly due to a difference in which data we used, so settle down [actually it's because I can't read charts]
[QUOTE=phygon;52720409]The United States is strong because of its rich history of immigration. It's part of our culture. Japan is [I]not[/I] the same. At all. They were not built on the same foundation we were. Also, it's important to note that while the US does not have an official language, Japan does.[/QUOTE] Nah, you've got a boundless land with plentiful resources, Most initial immigrants were from powerful and early-industrialized, often competently colonial nations (starting from brit colonys pays off), and world war II was extremely profitable for the united states whilst all of Europe was in a struggle. You rode that wave into being the first tech giant, and now you're here. Even then I'm simplifying, but the point is that immigration isn't really [I]that[/I] important to your nation's history, and really the US has, in some form or another, been a cunt to immegrant minorities. The Irish have been hated, the germans have been lynched, people still have issues with blacks... Now, Japan has a history of being Japan. outsiders have either been fucked by them, or tried to fuck them. They're really splendid individuals, but they're one of the most hated countries in asia (and that isn't even just a wwII thing) and through their history white people have just been an utter nuisance. ...and yet, if they just got rid of their xenophobia, they'd be totes doing alright with migrants. an interesting note about japan is how much they export their culture. be it with cartoons, dress, business or goods. I do wonder sometimes if the Japanese are waiting on making everything else Japanese enough before they'll try and assimilation. if the Japanese could just pucker up and allow immigration, it'd solve a bunch. They're no different from anyone else. They're just people. There's no "well they don't have the history"because other countries don't do well with immigrants in spite of history. there's just pure, pragmatic need for others. Or they could just make robots do all the labour. Probably too right-wing for that.
sidestepping literally this entire discussion, I find it the concept of these "snap elections" to be somewhat ... undemocratic in nature? At least in terms of strong institutions. The clear incentive is for the party/individuals in power to use them in order to consolidate political power at the most advantageous time possible, sidestepping the natural ebb and flow of electoral politics which inherently has a temporal element related to natural expansion and contraction of a variety of factors (like economies, which seemingly do so naturally irrespective of who is in power).
[QUOTE=EcksDee;52715492]Birth rate decline and population getting older is a problem that Japan is experiencing more than most other countries. (Maybe even every other country) Immigration is good.[/QUOTE] i'd rather fix the underlying issues than put a plaster on it and say that's good, i think most people would too. opening immigration over there is like opening pandora's box, best they fix the core problems instead.
[QUOTE=Anteep;52723035]i'd rather fix the underlying issues than put a plaster on it and say that's good, i think most people would too. opening immigration over there is like opening pandora's box, best they fix the core problems instead.[/QUOTE] What Pandora's box?
[QUOTE=Anteep;52723035]i'd rather fix the underlying issues than put a plaster on it and say that's good, i think most people would too. opening immigration over there is like opening pandora's box, best they fix the core problems instead.[/QUOTE] its a generally accepted idea that immigration and immigrants keep birth rates up and larger birth rates drive larger consumer growth which boosts gdp not that all of japan's problems can be atributed to their birthrates, but successive governments there have gone to outrageous lengths to boost the birthrate amongst japanese people because its not an inconsiquential thing and it makes everything harder when you have a shrinking population i didn't even mean to make this thread all about immigration by one single post but good god they have a very simple math problem here, they need more people, lots of them, boosting domestic birthrates hasn't worked, so maybe addressing their social hangups on immigration might be the last shot they have and the knockon effects might just be a growth in consumption which if managed could finally lead to a growth surge
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