[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;50097485]The rumors are from Hillary supporters, They know that she might lose New York because Bernie was invited by the pope, and New York is a catholic state.[/QUOTE]
Hillary has a 99% chance of winning New York according to FiveThirtyEight, the only issue is by how much she wins.
Bernie looks so old I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped dead in a couple of months.
[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;50111911]Hillary has a 99% chance of winning New York according to FiveThirtyEight, the only issue is by how much she wins.[/QUOTE]
I would imagine having a 99% chance implies she wins by a relatively large margin.
[QUOTE=Aztec;50093372]Kasich is only staying in the race to steal delegates to help force a brokered convention in which it will more than likely go in favor of Ted Cruz, he's just playing the game like everyone else.[/QUOTE]
I am aware of this but kasich's shot at getting the presidency is zero, they can stomach denying Trump through two ballots, but they can't really say they would skip over 45% and 40% of the vote to give it to a guy who's won a state
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;50111945]I would imagine having a 99% chance implies she wins by a relatively large margin.[/QUOTE]
Yes, but Bernie could feasibly reduce the margins, but can't feasibly take so much that he can actually win.
What's the most bare minimum number of delegates and % Bernie needs from New York to feasibly continue on the campaign? If it's less than a "win for the state" then this could be a hard blow.
[editline]11th April 2016[/editline]
IIRC, New York is second only to California in the sheer number of delegates in the Democratic primaries.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;50112077]What's the most bare minimum number of delegates and % Bernie needs from New York to feasibly continue on the campaign? If it's less than a "win for the state" then this could be a hard blow.
[editline]11th April 2016[/editline]
IIRC, New York is second only to California in the sheer number of delegates in the Democratic primaries.[/QUOTE]
I would say he would need aboout 56 or 57% if he wanted a substantial boost in delegates. If he gets less than that then it really is up to california.
And I'm pretty sure he's gonna get less than that unless a miracle happens.
[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;50111967]Yes, but Bernie could feasibly reduce the margins, but can't feasibly take so much that he can actually win.[/QUOTE]
Reducing the margins but not winning really isn't helping him, he still is behind in the delegate count even without superdelegates. Sure, he'll get a lot of delegates from this state, but Clinton will still get some - and more importantly, more so than him.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;50112186]Reducing the margins but not winning really isn't helping him, he still is behind in the delegate count even without superdelegates. Sure, he'll get a lot of delegates from this state, but Clinton will still get some - and more importantly, more so than him.[/QUOTE]
He has a path to victory if he can secure 57% of the NY vote and get 144 delegates and then use his win from NY to skate wins across the country that are above 55% each, then, if he can use the momentum of winning consistently he can finish off the gap by winning California by above 58% (If he wins every single state before Cali then that is plausible but he is probably going to lose a few like NJ and Maryland).
That would get him more pledged delegates than Clinton but it's a long shot.
[QUOTE=Guardian218;50111944]Bernie looks so old I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped dead in a couple of months.[/QUOTE]Funnily enough, Sanders' health records look better and more optimistic than Hillary's who's on multiple medications and was hospitalized few years back.
[QUOTE=Aztec;50112256]He has a path to victory if he can secure 57% of the NY vote and get 144 delegates and then use his win from NY to skate wins across the country that are above 55% each, then, if he can use the momentum of winning consistently he can finish off the gap by winning California by above 58% (If he wins every single state before Cali then that is plausible but he is probably going to lose a few like NJ and Maryland).
That would get him more pledged delegates than Clinton but it's a long shot.[/QUOTE]
Sources? You're suggesting that he can only win if he wins every state from NY onward?
[url]http://www.pass.va/content/dam/scienzesociali/booklet/centesimus_annus.pdf[/url]
hes gonna speak on the 15th.
[QUOTE=Revenge282;50113015]Sources? You're suggesting that he can only win if he wins every state from NY onward?[/QUOTE]
Nah he needs to win NY as well.
Or well, technically he doesn't [I]have[/I] to win [I]every[/I] primary from now on, but then he needs to outperform his outperforming in other states.
[QUOTE=Revenge282;50113015]Sources? You're suggesting that he can only win if he wins every state from NY onward?[/QUOTE]
Five thirty-eight has been saying the math works out that he will need to win by 57% in every state to enter the convention with a lead
[QUOTE=Joz;50112402]Funnily enough, Sanders' health records look better and more optimistic than Hillary's who's on multiple medications and was hospitalized few years back.[/QUOTE]
Besides people said the same about McCain and he's still kicking after 8 years.
[QUOTE=Wii60;50113037][url]http://www.pass.va/content/dam/scienzesociali/booklet/centesimus_annus.pdf[/url]
hes gonna speak on the 15th.[/QUOTE]
"The Urgency of a Moral Economy: Reflections on the 25th Anniversary of Centesimus Annus -
Senator Bernie Sanders"
Interesting
[QUOTE=Revenge282;50113015]Sources? You're suggesting that he can only win if he wins every state from NY onward?[/QUOTE]
Sources are based on my own math, 538, and bernie's subreddit.
This is how I've been following the race. These numbers give him a delegate surplus in the case of him under performing, and he did indeed under perform (in wyoming).
[quote]
Wisconsin: 54 pledged delegates; ~62.8% of the vote [B]actual 48[/B]
Wyoming: 11 pledged delegates; ~78.6% of the vote [B]actual 7[/B]
New York: 141 pledged delegates; ~57.1% of the vote <---- If he manages a blowout here it could change the momentum of the entire race
Connecticut: 32 pledged delegates; ~58.2% of the vote
Delaware: 12 pledged delegates; ~57.1% of the vote
Maryland: 48 pledged delegates; ~50.5% of the vote <---- This is going to be tough even if it's only a .5% win since it's a state that largely favors Clinton
Pennsylvania: 108 pledged delegates; ~57.1% of the vote <---- If he loses NY then I think somewhere around here his momentum will fade away
Rhode Island: 15 pledged delegates; ~62.6% of the vote
Indiana: 50 pledged delegates; ~60.2% of the vote
Guam: 4 pledged delegates; ~57.1% of the vote
West Virginia: 20 pledged delegates; ~69% of the vote
Kentucky: 32 pledged delegates; ~58.2% of the vote
Oregon: 42 pledged delegates; ~68.9% of the vote
U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 delegates; ~57.1% of the vote
Puerto Rico: 34 pledged delegates; ~56.7% of the vote
California: 270 pledged delegates; ~56.8% of the vote
Montana: 15 pledged delegates; ~71.4% of the vote
New Jersey: 69 pledged delegates; 54.8% of the vote
New Mexico: 21 pledged delegates; 61.8% of the vote
South Dakota: 14 pledged delegates; 70% of the vote
North Dakota: 13 pledged delegates; 72.2% of the vote
District of Columbia: 9 pledged delegates; 45% of the vote [B]allotted slight loss[/B]
-------------------------------------------------------
Grand Total: 2,056 pledged delegates (2,026 needed to win)
[B]Actual potential with these numbers as of 4/9/16: 2,044[/B]
[/quote]
These numbers aren't absolute, but for every time he under performs, he has to make up that underperformance elsewhere. The more he underperforms the more he has to do very well in large states like NY and CA. Another thing to factor in is, if he only gains like, 1 or 2 more pledged delegates than Clinton, it could be an issue since she has a very good chance of having a much higher popular vote than him due to him dominating caucuses with lower voter turnout.
It is bleak, but it isn't impossible.
