UK General Election Day and Results: 'Parliament is Well Hung.' - Polidicks

I don't trust polls at all after 2015/Brexit. Wait for the exit polls.

This election is basically May trying to play Russian roulette to win a bet while thinking the gun isn't loaded at all, when there's actually five bullets in there. [editline]1st June 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=ElectronicG19;52299301]I don't trust polls at all after 2015/Brexit. Wait for the exit polls.[/QUOTE] Difference between this and Brexit and Trump is that both of those were always within the margin of error. Remain and Leave swapped places so many times, and Hillary's greatest lead was like eight at any time, it was usually like two. Polls in America did not fail, they predicted a 2 point Hillary lead and she won the popular vote by two points. Brexit was well within the margin of error, it's just people interpreting them without factoring that margin in.

Panelbase [media]https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000[/media]

Apparently that still gives the Tories a majority

[QUOTE=Pissfuck;52299271]regardless of what happens, the Conservative party as we know it is pretty fucked. i wouldnt be surprised if they vote No Confidence over May if she loses seats.[/QUOTE] I doubt they would vote no confidence, who do the Conservatives have that can take over? Are they going to trot out Boris Johnson next? Also, they would never actually admit they are doing a shit job by having a no confidence vote when they are in power

Yeah I get the impression that the conservatives have already scraped the bottom of the barrel clean when they ended up with May. If they were to lose, It's not like they have anyone else dumb enough to step into the firing line after another disastrous voting gamble.

Brexit... Trump... Corbyn? Could this be the 3rd surprise?

[QUOTE=fulgrim;52299618]If they were to lose, It's not like they have anyone else dumb enough to step into the firing line after another disastrous voting gamble.[/QUOTE] Boris Johnson

[QUOTE=fulgrim;52299618]Yeah I get the impression that the conservatives have already scraped the bottom of the barrel clean when they ended up with May. If they were to lose, It's not like they have [B]anyone else dumb enough to step into the firing line [/B]after another disastrous voting gamble.[/QUOTE] [img]http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/pictures/462xAny/1/4/5/20145_Boris-Johnson-wins-seat-MP.jpg[/img]

[QUOTE=Chrisordie;52299512]Apparently that still gives the Tories a majority[/QUOTE] Of course it does, the Conservatives have a majority now and if they poll 8% above Labour they'll increase their majority. In order for Labour to win they need to poll ahead of the Conservatives and win seats from them - something that looks very unlikely. I mean even the best polls for Labour show a hung parliament - noone is predicting a Labour majority or Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister (except through a coalition). At this point in the campaign in 2015 there were polls showing a Labour majority, and it still lead to a Con Majority. At no point in this campaign have Labour been ahead of the Tories. Don't buy into the #JC4PM stuff, it'll lead to disappointment on the 9th June.

[QUOTE=Chrisordie;52299630]Boris Johnson[/QUOTE] Didn't he already side-step being prime-minister, among others, after their Brexit grandstanding? leaving the position for May?.

I only said 'Apparently' as I was unsure of the exact number from that poll (Either 50/60 if I read that correctly). Again, I'd like to be optimistic about this, I will still be voting Labour as there is still a chance they could win the constituency I am in.

[QUOTE=Chrisordie;52299743]I only said 'Apparently' as I was unsure of the exact number from that poll (Either 50/60 if I read that correctly). Again, I'd like to be optimistic about this, I will still be voting Labour as there is still a chance they could win the constituency I am in.[/QUOTE] Ah sorry if I came across as angry or w/e, I probably should have worded it a bit better. Focusing on your constituency is the best thing to do - if you can make a difference do it! I live in a constituency where the local Tory MP got over 50% of the vote last time, and UKIP were in second place so my vote counts for very little.

Even if Tories end up with 1 seat less than before, it's still a win imo. Simply because May called this election thinking she would massively increase her majority.

[QUOTE=Anteep;52299625]Brexit... Trump... Corbyn? Could this be the 3rd surprise?[/QUOTE] [thumb]http://i.imgur.com/O3SUdOB.jpg[/thumb] actual Tory leaflet lol oh and this one: [thumb]http://i.imgur.com/O7JnUAI.jpg[/thumb] she REALLY knows how to get down with the plebs

[QUOTE=MissZoey;52299807][thumb]http://i.imgur.com/O3SUdOB.jpg[/thumb] actual Tory leaflet lol oh and this one: [thumb]http://i.imgur.com/O7JnUAI.jpg[/thumb] she REALLY knows how to get down with the plebs[/QUOTE] Haha love it

[QUOTE=Mythman;52299768]Ah sorry if I came across as angry or w/e, I probably should have worded it a bit better. Focusing on your constituency is the best thing to do - if you can make a difference do it! I live in a constituency where the local Tory MP got over 50% of the vote last time, and UKIP were in second place so my vote counts for very little.[/QUOTE] Its fine. I am not terribly keen on poll like this as I have said in the past it often feels like people counting their chickens before they hatch. All I hope is that it dose not make people too complacent and see this as a done deal by any accounts.

After Corbyn's interview on Woman's Hour, May is sending Justine Greening instead. [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_y_xLVPsS8[/media]

[QUOTE=fulgrim;52299618]Yeah I get the impression that the conservatives have already scraped the bottom of the barrel clean when they ended up with May. If they were to lose, It's not like they have anyone else dumb enough to step into the firing line after another disastrous voting gamble.[/QUOTE] Actually the Tories have a whole wealth of political talent waiting in the wings. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Savid Javid, Stephen Crabb, Amber Rudd and George Osborne, just to name a handful. It's Labour, whose talent is so absolutely moribund that Corbyn was able to win their leadership twice. Whilst any potential statesmen within the party such as Hilary Benn, or Dan Jarvis are vilified by the membership as "Blairites".

[QUOTE=MissZoey;52299807][thumb]http://i.imgur.com/O3SUdOB.jpg[/thumb] actual Tory leaflet lol oh and this one: [thumb]http://i.imgur.com/O7JnUAI.jpg[/thumb] she REALLY knows how to get down with the plebs[/QUOTE] Don't the Conservatives like Brexit and aren't they alright with Trump? Seems they like chaos. [editline]1st June 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=The mouse;52300004]Actually the Tories have a whole wealth of political talent waiting in the wings. [B]Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Savid Javid, Stephen Crabb, Amber Rudd and George Osborne[/B], just to name a handful.[/QUOTE] I may be outside looking in but... if any of those were Irish politicians, I'd rate them fairly useless and talentless. :v:

[QUOTE=The mouse;52300004]Actually the Tories have a whole wealth of political talent waiting in the wings. [i] Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Savid Javid, Stephen Crabb, Amber Rudd and George Osborne,[/i] just to name a handful. [/QUOTE] Hahahaha Oh man I hope this joke was an intentional one.

[QUOTE=Grizz;52299907]After Corbyn's interview on Woman's Hour, May is sending Justine Greening instead. [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_y_xLVPsS8[/media][/QUOTE] I almost admire this tbh, she recognised the attack on her and takes him down confidently but she is so vague about everything, "we need a strong economy" doesn't answer "how are you [i]actually[/i] planning to fund the NHS" at all and that's why I don't trust her, she's getting pretty good at dodging questions though

[QUOTE=Tacooo;52300090]she's getting pretty good at dodging questions though[/QUOTE] Exactly why reporters need to go after her on it.

Wow Tim Farron just had a complete car crash interview with Andrew Neil. He has gone from 'witty' to disaster in less than 24 hours, still not more impressive than Theresa May losing her lead by 20 points.

[QUOTE=Shadow801;52300329]Wow Tim Farron just had a complete car crash interview with Andrew Neil. He has gone from 'witty' to disaster in less than 24 hours, still not more impressive than Theresa May losing her lead by 20 points.[/QUOTE] I was half expecting Andrew Neil to lamp him at any given moment.

[QUOTE=Chrisordie;52300334]I was half expecting Andrew Neil to lamp him at any given moment.[/QUOTE] I really want to know what he said at the end when the sound was muted. He muttered something to him and I bet it was nothing nice, Farron laughed if it off.

-snip- wrong thread

In a roundabout way these polls could backfire on Labour, a lot of tory voters could have been complacent because it was a predicted landslide, now the turnout for the tories might be higher. The bbc explain the prediction model used by yougov is complicated, it sounds more like a lottery to me. Other pollsters have the gap at 10%. [url]http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-39856354[/url] [QUOTE] YouGov themselves have indicated that their projection is subject to quite a lot of uncertainty. [/QUOTE] lol

It is a distinct possibility, got to bare in mind that these polls are only taken looking at a small sample of the population and those probably going to be the more politically active ones anyway. The 'Quiet Conservative' who could make or break the election for the Tories dose not cross my mind as being the type who would dive onto these polling lists in addition to the first time voters or those who have not voted in a while.

[QUOTE=Chrisordie;52300527]It is a distinct possibility, got to bare in mind that these polls are only taken looking at a small sample of the population and those probably going to be the more politically active ones anyway. The 'Quiet Conservative' who could make or break the election for the Tories dose not cross my mind as being the type who would dive onto these polling lists in addition to the first time voters or those who have not voted in a while.[/QUOTE] Equally a lot of previous non-voters see an avenue for change in Corbyn and the Labour manifesto. I'm not getting my hopes up for anything beyond an uncomfortable tory majority, but don't count anything out. A lot of people are suffering under austerity.