French election: Marine Le Pen could still become France's next president, new analysis finds - Polidicks

[QUOTE=Judas;52161879]wow! if every single person who intends to vote for Macron has an aneurysm on the way to the voting booth, Le Pen can pull through![/QUOTE] Hey it happens in Russia all the time, you never know.

Even if Le Pen wins the presidency, her PM must be approved by the parliament, right? They wouldn't approve her candidate, right, so we can see a PM from another party, limiting her influence anyway.

If she wins, does that mean the voting system is broken in France this time, also?

[QUOTE=ph:lxyz;52165090]If she wins, does that mean the voting system is broken in France this time, also?[/QUOTE] It's better than FPTP crap, but it's not perfect either.

[QUOTE=ph:lxyz;52165090]If she wins, does that mean the voting system is broken in France this time, also?[/QUOTE] It's easy to see why France's system is better than US', but not perfect. As there is no ranked choice voting, it's possible that neither Macron nor Le Pen is the [I]preferred[/I] choice for the country as a whole - but [I]at the very least[/I] the one that wins is the preference for a majority of the voting population compared to the other. It's obviously problematic that two others candidates came within spitting distance of Le Pen and Macron without going to the second round (which ranked choice voting would fix) - it's entirely likely that either Melenchon or Fillon could be a preferable choice for a majority of the population compared to, say Le Pen, but Le Pen simply has more of a core voter base that got her through the first round. Also possible with Macron, but afaik he's the highest polling candidate for the second round between the four, so it seems unlikely. Can't find much in the way of second round polling for the other two candidates against Le Pen, though, Google has a habit of burying that below more recent, more "relevant" results. To wrap things up, if Le Pen wins, it almost certainly won't be because of the voting system is flawed, as was partly the case in the US - but the second round match-up may still not be the most representative case of France's preferred candidates. But whoever wins, they're probably preferred by a majority of the electorate compared to the other. Won't stop me from criticising people if they choose Le Pen, though that's probably not gonna happen. I can assure you that I'll stand by this post (with the disclaimer that I may have misunderstood France's electoral system) even in the case of Le Pen win - the people will have spoken, but obviously they will have made a shitty choice.

[QUOTE=ph:lxyz;52165090]If she wins, does that mean the voting system is broken in France this time, also?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=_Axel;52165127]It's better than FPTP crap, but it's not perfect either.[/QUOTE] Yea the runoff voting or two round system that French FP users talking about it's ok by best, only thing when is flawed is mostly 'Lesser of evil' thinking start appearing in second round. And people who vote two prefer candidates or accept the system (like most all plurality-based voting systems) goes this paranoiac bully-like mentality to soft or extreme harsher death threats on people who aren't emotionally weak. This will go two or three ways 1. Accepting it because you had vote two candidates approved by voters and system 2. Refused voted, get either so-called "rational" death threats until Election Day or try avoid them best you can 3. Try ignoring all together and cause them become apolitical for rest of election

[QUOTE=Trebgarta;52165422]'Lesser of evil' thinking is called being a realist. Not voting doesn't send any messages.[/QUOTE] It sends the message of the people not having faith in the system and therefore not voting.

[QUOTE=Trebgarta;52165422]'Lesser of evil' thinking is called being a realist. Not voting doesn't send any messages.[/QUOTE] That narrative driven arrogant bully-like snark will make people choose 2 and 3 as result in FPTP and only 3 in this case. "congratulations"

[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;52165255]text[/QUOTE] I can confirm, you understood well. I'll just add that the polls made before the elections showed MLP would loose by at least 15% to any other candidate, no matter what. [QUOTE=Trebgarta;52165422]'Lesser of evil' thinking is called being a realist. Not voting doesn't send any messages.[/QUOTE] The job of the "Lesser evil" is to prove to other he actually is the lesser evil. You do that by making compromise, show that you're open to discussion, give in on some of your policies. You don't do that by shitting all over people that choose to play the waiting game. BTW it looks like there's around 30% of both Melenchon and Fillon voters that will not vote on the 2nd turn. That's a good chunk of people Macron should try to talk to.

[QUOTE=NapyDaWise;52165586]I can confirm, you understood well. I'll just add that the polls made before the elections showed MLP would loose by at least 15% to any other candidate, no matter what. The job of the "Lesser evil" is to prove to other he actually is the lesser evil. You do that by making compromise, show that you're open to discussion, give in on some of your policies. You don't do that by shitting all over people that choose to play the waiting game.[/QUOTE] Actually to prove yourself to be the lesser evil you just have to have better policies and character than the opposition. That stuff can help you win but it doesn't make you not the lesser evil if you don't do it.

[QUOTE=thelurker1234;52165657]Actually to prove yourself to be the lesser evil you just have to have better policies and character than the opposition. That stuff can help you win but it doesn't make you not the lesser evil if you don't do it.[/QUOTE] Lesser evil is on a case by case basis tho. For Trump voters, he's the lesser evil, for Hillary voters, she's the lesser evil. It's not an universal thing. What about people that see both of them as evil? Not the same kind, but they'll end up fucked no matter what. Le Pen understood it, and is fighting really hard to get us. She's playing smart. Macron on the other side try to bash us into submission, like if he doesn't understand that he won. And he's asking for a vote of confidence, as in if we vote for him we agree with everything he'll do. He's being an asshole, instead of trying to unite he's playing into Le Pen's hand. I'm really open to the idea to vote for him, but I won't bend over, and if he's not gonna show he's capable to talk like an adult, I can't even imagine what he'll do during his presidency. This is exactly why you hear so much about Melenchon voters saying they won't vote. We're still fighting for whatever we can scavenge. But don't worry, if it looks like there's a slight chance of MLP winning we'll vote against her. We're hesitating between Macron and not voting, MLP isn't an option here. There's also campaigns to make MLP voters abstain, which, while not voting for Macron, show we're still fighting against racism. There's also vote trading happening. We give our procuration to a Macron voter, giving them 2 votes for the 2nd turn, while getting their procuration for the legislative election. So yeah, it's not because we choose to abstain that we aren't doing anything to fight MLP.

[QUOTE=NapyDaWise;52165730]Lesser evil is on a case by case basis tho. For Trump voters, he's the lesser evil, for Hillary voters, she's the lesser evil. It's not an universal thing. What about people that see both of them as evil? Not the same kind, but they'll end up fucked no matter what. Le Pen understood it, and is fighting really hard to get us. She's playing smart. Macron on the other side try to bash us into submission, like if he doesn't understand that he won. And he's asking for a vote of confidence, as in if we vote for him we agree with everything he'll do. He's being an asshole, instead of trying to unite he's playing into Le Pen's hand. I'm really open to the idea to vote for him, but I won't bend over, and if he's not gonna show he's capable to talk like an adult, I can't even imagine what he'll do during his presidency. This is exactly why you hear so much about Melenchon voters saying they won't vote. We're still fighting for whatever we can scavenge. But don't worry, if it looks like there's a slight chance of MLP winning we'll vote against her. We're hesitating between Macron and not voting, MLP isn't an option here. There's also campaigns to make MLP voters abstain, which, while not voting for Macron, show we're still fighting against racism. There's also vote trading happening. We give our procuration to a Macron voter, giving them 2 votes for the 2nd turn, while getting their procuration for the legislative election. So yeah, it's not because we choose to abstain that we aren't doing anything to fight MLP.[/QUOTE] Can you exactly say that you all are going to vote for her if her victory looks possible. Hell, about half as many that plan on abstaining according to polls plan on voting le pen too. As for it being on a case-by-case basis, emotionally yes. But there's more to it than that and the claims of both candidates are not equally accurate or cogent empirically.

[QUOTE=NapyDaWise;52165730] So yeah, it's not because we choose to abstain that we aren't doing anything to fight MLP.[/QUOTE] The more effective way to defeat the extreme right is transcend the left right divide or re create it into a new dichotomy. The one thing ive noticed is the same on both left and right is narcissism.

[QUOTE=thelurker1234;52165764]Can you exactly say that you all are going to vote for her if her victory looks possible.[/QUOTE] I assume you mean we'll vote for him, not her :v: Because while Macron still is an option, MLP isn't for abstainers. You're hearing about it a lot because Melenchon did what he said he would before the campaign : He will not tell us what to vote, and let us decide by ourselves. There's currently a vote running on the official website to have a look at what people want for the second turn : Macron, White vote, or astain. MLP isn't listed as an option. [QUOTE=thelurker1234;52165764]Hell, about half as many that plan on abstaining according to polls plan on voting le pen too.[/QUOTE] Of course there are, and theses are the people we're working on to ask them to abstain. But it's the same for every party that didn't win, nothing unusual here. But we shouldn't dismiss theses people's votes, they are mostly voting against finance, and in their eyes MLP is the lesser evil (mostly because she doesn't have a majority and could be more or less controlled). By dismissing them as racists, they're just doing a Trump all over again. [QUOTE=thelurker1234;52165764]As for it being on a case-by-case basis, emotionally yes. But there's more to it than that and the claims of both candidates are not equally accurate or cogent empirically.[/QUOTE] Well it's not like people vote with their brain :v: Speaking about that, there's a poll made by Liberation (left leaning french paper) that showed that Macron's politics don't really convince that much : [url=http://md1.libe.com/photo/1016531-sondage-viavoice-la-nature-du-vote-infographie-big.png?modified_at=1493145554&width=750]around 80% of each candidate voters voted for them by conviction, that number goes down to 58% for Macron.[/url] He's not see as a good candidate, he's seen as a candidate by default. He's got nothing to back his claims yet he still bashes undecided voters instead of convincing them. Again, there's a point in playing the waiting game. There's still a week left, and if claiming that there'll be mass abstention might get us something, why not do it? It's already working with the vote trading, and more votes in the legislative election while preventing MLP to win is way better than just accepting to vote for the lesser evil in my eyes.

i really hope le pen wins just so we can see this self-assured douchebag get the shit eating grin wiped off his face, much like what happened with clinton.

[QUOTE=Mitchd247;52166367]i really hope le pen wins just so we can see this self-assured douchebag get the shit eating grin wiped off his face, much like what happened with clinton.[/QUOTE] This is exactly why the world is fucked.

[QUOTE=Mitchd247;52166367]i really hope le pen wins just so we can see this self-assured douchebag get the shit eating grin wiped off his face, much like what happened with clinton.[/QUOTE] Does anything drive your worldview other than spite?

[QUOTE=Mitchd247;52166367]i really hope le pen wins just so we can see this self-assured douchebag get the shit eating grin wiped off his face, much like what happened with clinton.[/QUOTE] I have a feeling that your age and socioeconomic status would make this post incredibly hilarious

Not voting doesn't send "a message". It just means you can't be asked to vote, and you're letting other people choose for you.

[QUOTE=RB33;52165500]It sends the message of the people not having faith in the system and therefore not voting.[/QUOTE] And it also sends the message of "I am content with the worst possible outcome occurring because I chose to sit my on arse and let it happen". Politics is about compromise. You aren't going to get absolutely everything you want every time, you should aim to try and pick the candidate that best matches your views. Not "protest" vote for the worst possible candidate because your poster child lost, not abstain when there is a viable candidate for your views because they're not "perfect". Progress is a steady movement, for every tiny part of your political views that actually wins and becomes the new normal, progress is made. Making it all at once would be nice, but that's not quite how the world works.

[QUOTE=hexpunK;52167037]And it also sends the message of "I am content with the worst possible outcome occurring because I chose to sit my on arse and let it happen". Politics is about compromise. You aren't going to get absolutely everything you want every time, you should aim to try and pick the candidate that best matches your views. Not "protest" vote for the worst possible candidate because your poster child lost, not abstain when there is a viable candidate for your views because they're not "perfect". Progress is a steady movement, for every tiny part of your political views that actually wins and becomes the new normal, progress is made. Making it all at once would be nice, but that's not quite how the world works.[/QUOTE] If for example, you're far-left, your choice here is between a establishment banker and a nationalist. Neither is a good choice and doesn't further your views. Not taking part gives less legitimacy to the system, which will increase the need to reform it.

[QUOTE=RB33;52167111]Not taking part gives less legitimacy to the system, which will increase the need to reform it.[/QUOTE] By system, do you mean the voting system?

[QUOTE=ph:lxyz;52167154]By system, do you mean the voting system?[/QUOTE] Yes, voting for the president should use ranked voting and the parliament use proportional representation. If your candidate still loses, too bad. But at least your vote always counts.

France already somewhat uses a ranked voting system though ? You get to pick twice for a reason.

[QUOTE=Ganerumo;52167260]France already somewhat uses a ranked voting system though ? You get to pick twice for a reason.[/QUOTE] No, That's runoff or commonly as Two-round voting and it's a plurality voting system like FPTP. You have very likely mistaken to Instant runoff which is Ranked voting system where you have three or more rounds instead automatic two-rounds. [IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/98/TRS_ballot_papers.svg/325px-TRS_ballot_papers.svg.png[/IMG] This is Runoff/Two-round system [IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Preferential_ballot.svg/220px-Preferential_ballot.svg.png[/IMG] This is Instant Runoff/Ranked-Choice (US)/Alternative (UK) system

I hope Le Pen wins by a tiny margin purely because of abstention votes.

Le Pen over Macron, she is at least clear on what her plan is, he seems like a really big unknown.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;52167938]Le Pen over Macron, she is at least clear on what her plan is, he seems like a really big unknown.[/QUOTE] That's the catch though. People went and voted for him because he had no program. That's our democratic conjoncture, folks. Luckily from his time in government we can already tell he's going to drive us towards more of a police state and fuck up the hierarchy of norms in the work code. So he's a crock of shit alright, but on the other hand MLP will do the exact same shit, just worse, and is also a nazi. :hypeisnotreal: Still I'm so glad Fillon wrecked himself in turn one. Fuck this guy so much more than Macron.

[QUOTE=Scarabix;52168072]That's the catch though. People went and voted for him because he had no program. That's our democratic conjoncture, folks. Luckily from his time in government we can already tell he's going to drive us towards more of a police state and fuck up the hierarchy of norms in the work code. So he's a crock of shit alright, but on the other hand MLP will do the exact same shit, just worse, and is also a nazi. :hypeisnotreal: Still I'm so glad Fillon wrecked himself in turn one. Fuck this guy so much more than Macron.[/QUOTE] From my point of view I'd rather take Le Pen, because Macron seems like a guy who takes economics like its a rulebook especially in the area of deregulation which isn't exactly what economies need or what people want.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;52168141]From my point of view I'd rather take Le Pen, because Macron seems like a guy who takes economics like its a rulebook especially in the area of deregulation which isn't exactly what economies need or what people want.[/QUOTE] ...And Le Pen is at the helm of a literal scam organization. They prop up straw candidates in every elections just so they can get their "campaign" reimbursed by the state. They literally steal the money of European citizens to fund their own party. They have countless other fiscal schemes in place to suck as much money as they can from the taxpayer. If you believe the FN, once in power, won't sell their ass to those with the highest offer (ie corporations and billionaires), you're intentionally looking at reality with blinders.