Bitcoin virtual currency hits (ALL-TIME) record high after exchange deal - Polidicks

[QUOTE=Zerohe;39773057]I did some more research on the ASICs, and apparently it all boils down to: "During a gold rush, you want to be the one selling the shovels." Only the first few people with ASICs are going to get any benefit from them. After a period of maybe 2 or 3 weeks, I believe ASICs will be outputting a hashrate relative to what high-end GPUs can come up with now. Magnitudes higher than what we have now, but what matters is how much your machine can do relative to the rest of the network. For example, I think I read somewhere yesterday (maybe it was in this thread, actually?) that 1.2 TH/s is around 5% hashing power of all current mining. Butterfly Labs (smart motherfuckers) are offering a 1.5 TH/s ASIC for $29,899 USD. Based on current mining difficulty, that will yield around 172.7 BTC on the first day, but will decrease every day. The more ASICs being used, the more that will decrease. I'm assuming Butterfly Labs has a metric fucktonne of pre-orders, but all of those people are stupid. They are being shipped to the people who put their pre-orders in first, and if you're not at the very top of the list, you've just wasted hundreds or even thousands of dollars. You can't even really use these machines for anything else once the mining difficulty proves too much for them. To conclude, Butterfly Labs and those Avalon(?) fellows are the smart ones. Anyone who is purchasing these ASICs is wasting their money, unless you are literally in the top few dozen people to receive your order. Even then, you won't be getting near as much BTC per day as these mining calculators show you. In the meantime, these few companies selling them will be making treasure from the wannabe miners who aren't skeptical enough. Once again, "During a gold rush, you want to be the one selling the shovels." [editline]2nd March 2013[/editline] Also, think there is enough interest in BTC for a Bitcoin thread in General Discussion? I'm still skeptical as to what the future of the currency will be, but I like Bitcoin and I know others here do too. Even the ones who hate it to be cool.[/QUOTE] Your understanding is pretty good, much better than most. However, there's two things I want to bring up: • Your miner's earnings in bitcoin won't decrease every day. They will decrease every 2 weeks, assuming the network power only increases, because that's how often the nodes re-adjust the difficulty to compensate for changes in total hashing speed. • The difficulty will never "prove too much for them." They'll just take longer and longer to pay themselves off. Even if the total network speed suddenly doubled, that just means you have a 2-week break-even point instead of 1-week. Not quite as fast, but still certainly (eventually) profitable if you're serious enough about it to be considering buying specialized gear in the first place. The total network speed would have to increase by about 200-fold before the BFL ASICs (if they are real) would start earning as little as they cost in power to operate.

[QUOTE=mblunk;39773174]Your understanding is pretty good, much better than most. However, there's two things I want to bring up: • Your miner's earnings in bitcoin won't decrease every day. They will decrease every 2 weeks, assuming the network power only increases, because that's how often the nodes re-adjust the difficulty to compensate for changes in total hashing speed. • The difficulty will never "prove too much for them." They'll just take longer and longer to pay themselves off. Even if the total network speed suddenly doubled, that just means you have a 2-week break-even point instead of 1-week. Not quite as fast, but still certainly (eventually) profitable if you're serious enough about it to be considering buying specialized gear in the first place. The total network speed would have to increase by about 200-fold before the BFL ASICs (if they are real) would start earning as little as they cost in power to operate.[/QUOTE] That makes sense, thanks for correcting me. Is there any hard data anywhere of expected pre-orders from Butterfly Labs and co? Also, how much would these orders affect the difficulty? As you said, I like to think I have a bit better understanding of the BTC infrastructure than most, but I was always one for concepts rather than the important details (which is kind of a bad thing haha). The difficulty leaped yesterday or something too, didn't it? Was this a large leap, historically?

[QUOTE=Zerohe;39773298]That makes sense, thanks for correcting me. Is there any hard data anywhere of expected pre-orders from Butterfly Labs and co? Also, how much would these orders affect the difficulty? As you said, I like to think I have a bit better understanding of the BTC infrastructure than most, but I was always one for concepts rather than the important details (which is kind of a bad thing haha). The difficulty leaped yesterday or something too, didn't it? Was this a large leap, historically?[/QUOTE] I haven't found any hard preorder figures, but if I had to I'd ballpark it somewhere within 2,000-8,000. The current total network hash rate is about 35 TH/s, so if 4,000 orders shipped with an average rate of, say, 10 GH/s each, that would add up to 40 TH/s of capability and the overall network speed would double, therefore the chance of any given person mining a block gets halved. However, I really, really doubt they'd sit still and wait until they had a batch of 4,000 to begin shipping, maybe closer to 100-500, and then spending months fulfilling the rest of the preorders and orders that start coming in afterwards. It's not something that's going to happen overnight by any means. The hash rate has already been doubling every ~6-8 months, so ASICs might cut that down to every 3-4 months. GPU mining will almost certainly be unprofitable to people paying for the own electricity by the end of the year, unless the exchange rate continues to rise anywhere near as fast as it is today. [editline]2nd March 2013[/editline] [img]https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-9ghXEgEmAfA/UTJMSt-jKsI/AAAAAAAAI6k/yi0UbpA0s6Y/s0/speed-lin.png[/img] [editline]2nd March 2013[/editline] Info sources: [url]http://blockchain.info/charts[/url] [url]http://blockchain.info/stats[/url] [url]http://blockexplorer.com/q[/url] [url]http://bitcoindifficulty.com/[/url]

[QUOTE=mblunk;39772963]There currently are no ASIC products shipping to customers. The one with the $150 5W 4.5 GH/s box (Butterfly Labs or BFL) has been claiming to ship "soon" for so long that many are getting refunds or accusing them of being a fraud. That's why I'm personally holding off on any ASIC orders until I can go to the bitcointalk forums/subreddit and see pages full of regular people posting their gear and performance.[/QUOTE] Seems like a chinese company has shipped their models: [url]https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140099.0[/url] [url]http://bitcoinmagazine.com/working-avalon-asic-confirmed/[/url]

[QUOTE=Van-man;39773665]Seems like a chinese company has shipped their models: [url]https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140099.0[/url] [url]http://bitcoinmagazine.com/working-avalon-asic-confirmed/[/url][/QUOTE] True, but that's the only one, right? I'm talking about lots of people confirming on a large scale. It's definitely good to actually see one in the flesh and performing as advertised though. [editline]2nd March 2013[/editline] Ah, further in the thread it's mentioned that there were 50 shipping by the end of January.

[QUOTE=Zerohe;39773057]I did some more research on the ASICs, and apparently it all boils down to: "During a gold rush, you want to be the one selling the shovels." Only the first few people with ASICs are going to get any benefit from them. After a period of maybe 2 or 3 weeks, I believe ASICs will be outputting a hashrate relative to what high-end GPUs can come up with now. Magnitudes higher than what we have now, but what matters is how much your machine can do relative to the rest of the network. For example, I think I read somewhere yesterday (maybe it was in this thread, actually?) that 1.2 TH/s is around 5% hashing power of all current mining. Butterfly Labs (smart motherfuckers) are offering a 1.5 TH/s ASIC for $29,899 USD. Based on current mining difficulty, that will yield around 172.7 BTC on the first day, but will decrease every day. The more ASICs being used, the more that will decrease. I'm assuming Butterfly Labs has a metric fucktonne of pre-orders, but all of those people are stupid. They are being shipped to the people who put their pre-orders in first, and if you're not at the very top of the list, you've just wasted hundreds or even thousands of dollars. You can't even really use these machines for anything else once the mining difficulty proves too much for them. To conclude, Butterfly Labs and those Avalon(?) fellows are the smart ones. Anyone who is purchasing these ASICs is wasting their money, unless you are literally in the top few dozen people to receive your order. Even then, you won't be getting near as much BTC per day as these mining calculators show you. In the meantime, these few companies selling them will be making treasure from the wannabe miners who aren't skeptical enough. Once again, "During a gold rush, you want to be the one selling the shovels." [editline]2nd March 2013[/editline] Also, think there is enough interest in BTC for a Bitcoin thread in General Discussion? I'm still skeptical as to what the future of the currency will be, but I like Bitcoin and I know others here do too. Even the ones who hate it to be cool.[/QUOTE] Whoever controls 50% of the mining power controls the bitcoin though (technically), if the above chart is correct you'd only need 10 of those machines to gain partial control over what transactions go through

[QUOTE=Tobba;39773792]Whoever controls 50% of the mining power controls the bitcoin though (technically), if the above chart is correct you'd only need 10 of those machines to gain partial control over what transactions go through[/QUOTE] Like there isn't a goldrush going on in order to get a couple of those machines already :rolleyes:

No matter how many times I read about bit coins and watch that same instructional video I am still utterly mystified by them

[QUOTE=EmperorKabuto;39774174]No matter how many times I read about bit coins and watch that same instructional video I am still utterly mystified by them[/QUOTE] I would suggest the Wikipedia article, but it's mostly written and maintained by someone named "Neoconfederate" who, unsurprisingly, wrote the thing in a way that runs through all of the technical details without explaining it in a way that any random person could understand and realize the importance of its benefits. I've been thinking about re-writing it myself but I'd have to make sure it's pretty much flawless before putting it up, otherwise it'll just get reverted.

[url]http://www.ebay.com/itm/BitForce-Single-SC-60-GH-s-Bitcoin-Miner-/321081457879?pt=PCC_Video_TV_Cards&hash=item4ac1f23cd7[/url] Why are people willing to pay more than $5000 for something that costs $1300 from the mfgr :v:

[QUOTE=mblunk;39783370]I would suggest the Wikipedia article, but it's mostly written and maintained by someone named "Neoconfederate" who, unsurprisingly, wrote the thing in a way that runs through all of the technical details without explaining it in a way that any random person could understand and realize the importance of its benefits. I've been thinking about re-writing it myself but I'd have to make sure it's pretty much flawless before putting it up, otherwise it'll just get reverted.[/QUOTE] I think its in my best interests to just believe that everyone who uses bitcoins is a wizard and that magic is real after all

So would it be worth it to invest in a $600 30GH/s bitcoin mining machine (which claims it would pay off in about a week according to one calculator)?

[QUOTE=B!N4RY;39784661][url]http://www.ebay.com/itm/BitForce-Single-SC-60-GH-s-Bitcoin-Miner-/321081457879?pt=PCC_Video_TV_Cards&hash=item4ac1f23cd7[/url] Why are people willing to pay more than $5000 for something that costs $1300 from the mfgr :v:[/QUOTE] Because that was preordered earlier, so you'll get it sooner then if you preordered now. [editline]3rd March 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=WitheredGryphon;39784857]So would it be worth it to invest in a $600 30GH/s bitcoin mining machine (which claims it would pay off in about a week according to one calculator)?[/QUOTE] Its kind of too late now. By the time you actually have it in your hands it'll probably take a few months to pay off.

Too bad I spend all my bitcoins on drugs :[

Im going to ask again, do you guys think there is enough interest here on FP for a Bitcoin megathread? (Even with Garry's magical "megathreads are KINDA banned but not banned just actually sorta discouraged" rule) Every time a news article is posted on BTC, the thread seems to almost push into the double digits of page numbers. So if anyone thinks its a good idea, rate this "Agree."

[QUOTE=Zerohe;39787908] Every time a news article is posted on BTC, the thread seems to almost push into the double digits of page numbers. So if anyone thinks its a good idea, rate this "Agree."[/QUOTE] I think its a good idea. If you think it is, just make one. Can't hurt. I'd make one myself but I'm too lazy to think up a good OP.

[QUOTE=Zerohe;39787908]Im going to ask again, do you guys think there is enough interest here on FP for a Bitcoin megathread? (Even with Garry's magical "megathreads are KINDA banned but not banned just actually sorta discouraged" rule) Every time a news article is posted on BTC, the thread seems to almost push into the double digits of page numbers. So if anyone thinks its a good idea, rate this "Agree."[/QUOTE] There used to be one (under hardware and software), but it pretty much died a while ago and it's got over 50 pages, so it'll close as soon as it's bumped. You could make another, or I could maybe tomorrow... I'm gonna be busy tonight though. Should it be in GD or HW/SW?

[QUOTE=mblunk;39788258]There used to be one (under hardware and software), but it pretty much died a while ago and it's got over 50 pages, so it'll close as soon as it's bumped. You could make another, or I could maybe tomorrow... I'm gonna be busy tonight though. Should it be in GD or HW/SW?[/QUOTE] I can't make one tonight either, if I find time tomorrow I'll throw one together if I see you don't already have one made. I think it should be in GD just for the fact people need to start thinking of BTC mainly as a currency rather than whatever else people think of it as, (ie: technological showcase) and also because I think it'll get more viewing there.

[QUOTE=mblunk;39768082]I identify with libertarians in some ways, and it's just a neat idea to be able to not have to rely on any overbearing entity to be able to send and receive value. It's really just on principle. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE=mblunk;39768295]Ah yeah, too true. I know people asking for refunds from BFL only get refunded the USD equivalent, so as the value rises, they get less coins back.[/QUOTE] see just in these posts you answered why you can't rely on it. the coins are worthless at the moment unless they're backed by a real currency, ie usd. i do like bitcoins, i've bought and sold many but to think of it anymore as a quick fad would be silly. It could go big, more likely it'll go bust eventually. nobody seems to have any sense of direction, they're impractical, hard to use for newbies and easily stolen. there's phone apps that allow you to send money instantly. why would btc ever catch on in the general public?

[QUOTE=joe588;39789651]see just in these posts you answered why you can't rely on it. the coins are worthless at the moment unless they're backed by a real currency, ie usd. i do like bitcoins, i've bought and sold many but to think of it anymore as a quick fad would be silly. It could go big, more likely it'll go bust eventually. nobody seems to have any sense of direction, they're impractical, hard to use for newbies and easily stolen. there's phone apps that allow you to send money instantly. why would btc ever catch on in the general public?[/QUOTE] I think the problem is that this is one of the only times in human history where an economy has been created from scratch, and not only that, but the first time an economy has been created from scratch based around a currency that is virtually nothing. I'm kinda like you, I like BTC, I've traded a few here and there, and I'm still a bit skeptical as to what the economy will result in. However, I think if enough effort is put into letting BTC mimic a "real" economy, I honestly believe it will do well. Some aspects might go against the whole "anarchocapitalistic" ideologies tied to the coin, but you can't have everything. In my opinion, if the interest of Wall Street is captured somehow, we'll see BTC become more of a currency than a commodity. [editline]3rd March 2013[/editline] Then again, of course with Wall St. it may only reinforce the "commodity" part, but still. I think getting big financial names into Bitcoin somehow will prove good for BTC. The main goal for the coin is for it to become more popular and widely used, I think Wall Street, or at least some more key player recognition, is a path to this goal.

But that's the point, there is no economy so to speak, just people buying and selling for profit they'll keep in USD. Sure a few sites accept it. There's some that believe it'll blow up and they'll be rich and those that think (wrongly) that it's an effective money laundering system. Unless those people who have the coins form some sort of community between themselves and only use bitcoins, they're still useless.

I'm still considering getting one of those 30GH models. It's performance per watt is high enough that I won't be really losing money, it will just take a while to pay off. I might as well.

didnt bitcoins get hacked like a year ago and some guys made off with like 1 million btc which caused their prices to crash?

Except drugs, but i bet the dealers just buy more drugs with the profits. Either to support their own usage or to sell on in real life, how are you ever going to cash them easily without meeting people for cash? Suppose you could swap for prepaid visas and whatever but you still lose anonymity. [editline]4th March 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=Sableye;39789998]didnt bitcoins get hacked like a year ago and some guys made off with like 1 million btc which caused their prices to crash?[/QUOTE] No mtgox got hacked and coupled with trolling efforts on the mostly retarded bitcoin forums, everyone tried to sell up causing the market to crash.

[QUOTE=Dog;39746448]oh god i have 0.00002 btc i'm rich fuckers[/QUOTE] get on my level scrub 0.00239427 BTC (currently worth $0.08)

[QUOTE=Sableye;39789998]didnt bitcoins get hacked like a year ago and some guys made off with like 1 million btc which caused their prices to crash?[/QUOTE] A major exchange (mtgox) was hacked and people lost faith. Bitcoins themselves cannot be hacked, or well, it would take like trillions of years and a lot of luck to generate the same private key as someones bitcoin wallet.

[QUOTE=joe588;39789956]But that's the point, there is no economy so to speak, just people buying and selling for profit they'll keep in USD. Sure a few sites accept it. There's some that believe it'll blow up and they'll be rich and those that think (wrongly) that it's an effective money laundering system. Unless those people who have the coins form some sort of community between themselves and only use bitcoins, they're still useless.[/QUOTE] The idea is appealing because they will literally be impossible to counterfeit, and no one individual or organization has the ability to inflate your wealth.

Just an update: It's $46/BTC right now.

up Up UP!!

fantastic news, I wonder if it will continue to rise My 0.98 btc I purchased in exchange for £4 in linden dollars (I had a Second Life University exercise thing to do, never played it seriously) are really paying off. Not planning on withdrawing it just yet, gonna wait and see what happens