Scientific Polls All Show Hillary as Clear Winner of First Presidential Debate. - Polidicks

[QUOTE=Hanso;51127135]This is really weird to me, I wonder what their reasons are for thinking Trump did better.[/QUOTE] They were probably upset with the stupid shit she pulled trying to get off sick zingers on him. She just ended up stooping to his level.

[QUOTE=Hanso;51127135]This is really weird to me, I wonder what their reasons are for thinking Trump did better.[/QUOTE] Something worth considering in all polling is that at the really low percentages, you will always find some supporters, regardless of how ridiculous the position may seem: [url]http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/[/url] Call it the 'Lizardman Constant' (of around 4 - 5%), at which percentages below become very unreliable. The proposed solution is interesting as well: [QUOTE][B]Beware of Phantom Lizardmen[/B] I have only done a little bit of social science research, but it was enough to make me hate people. One study I helped with analyzed whether people from different countries had different answers on a certain psychological test. So we put up a website where people answered some questions about themselves (like “what country are you from?”) and then took the psychological test. And so of course people screwed it up in every conceivable way. There were the merely dumb, like the guy who put “male” as his nationality and “American” as his gender. But there were also the actively malicious or at least annoying, like the people (yes, more than one) who wrote in “Martian”. I think we all probably know someone like this, maybe a couple people like this. I also think most of us don’t know someone who believes reptilian aliens in human form control all the major nations of Earth. Public Policy Polling’s recent poll on conspiracy theories mostly showed up on my Facebook feed as “Four percent of Americans believe lizardmen are running the Earth”. (of note, an additional 7% of Americans are “not sure” whether lizardmen are running the Earth or not.) Imagine the situation. You’re at home, eating dinner. You get a call from someone who says “Hello, this is Public Policy Polling. Would you mind answering some questions for us?” You say “Sure”. An extremely dignified sounding voice says – and this is the exact wording of the question – “Do you believe that shape-shifting reptilian people control our world by taking on human form and gaining political power to manipulate our society, or not?” Then it urges you to press 1 if yes, press 2 if no, press 3 if not sure. So first we get the people who think “Wait, was 1 the one for if I did believe in lizardmen, or if I didn’t? I’ll just press 1 and move on to the next question.” Then we get the people who are like “I never heard it before, but if this nice pollster thinks it’s true, I might as well go along with them.” Then we get the people who are all “F#&k you, polling company, I don’t want people calling me when I’m at dinner. You screw with me, I tell you what I’m going to do. I’m going to tell you I believe lizard people are running the planet.” And then we get the people who put “Martian” as their nationality in psychology experiments. Because some men just want to watch the world burn. Do these three groups total 4% of the US population? Seems plausible. I really wish polls like these would include a control question, something utterly implausible even by lizard-people standards, something like “Do you believe Barack Obama is a hippopotamus?” Whatever percent of people answer yes to the hippo question get subtracted out from the other questions[/QUOTE]

Most of the time people in America are more interested in sick zingers than substances in a national debate.

It's interesting how Trump's campaign seems to have have split Fox News. Some hosts like Sean Hannity appear to be fully onboard the Trump Train, but then you get stuff like this: [media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbvmjMnCj8k[/media]

[QUOTE=Hanso;51127135]This is really weird to me, I wonder what their reasons are for thinking Trump did better.[/QUOTE] NAFTA. Seriously, I've seen a few Hillary supporters on reddit who think Trump won due to bringing up NAFTA, so on that alone winning on domestic economy issues. It's bizzare.

[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;51126872][url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trust-us-politicians-keep-most-of-their-promises/[/url] [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/lWKTBm4.png[/IMG][/QUOTE] Thank you!

Nah you don't understand, Drudge Report said Trump won ergo the lamestream media is lying.

[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;51126872][url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trust-us-politicians-keep-most-of-their-promises/[/url] -chart-[/QUOTE] Reagan held office from 81-89 and is often cited as one of the most favorably viewed presidents in modern times, but if that chart is anything to go by he upheld the least promises of any president in the modern era proportionally. Weird.

[QUOTE=1legmidget;51130368]Reagan held office from 81-89 and is often cited as one of the most favorably viewed presidents in modern times, but if that chart is anything to go by he upheld the least promises of any president in the modern era proportionally. Weird.[/QUOTE] It's all about cult of personality, and Reagan was one of the most charismatic presidents we've ever had even when he had to tell everyone live that he had lied about giving weapons to our enemies for hostages.

[QUOTE=shadow_oap;51130658]It's all about cult of personality, and Reagan was one of the most charismatic presidents we've ever had even when he had to tell everyone live that he had lied about giving weapons to our enemies for hostages.[/QUOTE] And that's what Trump is doing, imitating Ronald Reagan and building his own cult of personality.

[QUOTE=Sonic Fan;51123102]Funny you mention that. :v: [video]https://twitter.com/jerryspringer/status/780601736327208960[/video][/QUOTE] Wow that is a lot of retweets

[QUOTE=Megadave;51127014]Honestly I want Jill, I'm just waiting for her to get on the Indiana ballot, which looks unlikely considering Indiana reasons.[/QUOTE] Jill Stein is a recognized write in candidate in Indiana. [url=http://www.jill2016.com/ballot_access]Her national ballot map is here.[/url]

In other news, 538 now has Clinton up at 67% in their Polls-only. Let's hope it keeps climbing and that Donald doesn't somehow dig himself out of the mess he made.

[QUOTE=smurfy;51126522]Debate fallout is starting to work its way into the 538 model thanks to some new state polls from PPP. Left: Immediately before the debate Right: Now [t]http://i.imgur.com/EVMfMfH.png[/t] [t]http://i.imgur.com/z1htUil.png[/t][/QUOTE] [t]http://i.imgur.com/fnTHIY2.png[/t] I swear, every time I refresh the page, Clinton's up another tenth of a percentage point.