[QUOTE=ChadMcGoatMan;52238203]I little good news that Labours and Conservatives are steadily increasing as Liberal Democrats and UKIP are steadily decreasing in current polls.
[IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png/1024px-Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png[/IMG][/QUOTE]
The tories still have a 10%+ lead over labour in almost every poll, which pretty much means guaranteed loss for labour.
I don't think I can even be bothered voting this year though since all the parties are actually grim. This labour manifesto is such a joke, the price of renationalising these industries would remove any benefit from doing so, assuming they could even get the companies to be sold to them. It'd cost billions to do the stuff he wants to do. And believe it or not you can't just borrow infinite amounts of cash with zero repercussions. The only reasonable one is renationalisation of the trains which can be done fairly cheaply since we still own the actual rails, we just rent them out to companies so we wouldn't need to buy anyone out.
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239078]The tories still have a 10%+ lead over labour in almost every poll, which pretty much means guaranteed loss for labour.
I don't think I can even be bothered voting this year though since all the parties are actually grim. This labour manifesto is such a joke, the price of renationalising these industries would remove any benefit from doing so, assuming they could even get the companies to be sold to them. It'd cost billions to do the stuff he wants to do. And believe it or not you can't just borrow infinite amounts of cash with zero repercussions. The only reasonable one is renationalisation of the trains which can be done fairly cheaply since we still own the actual rails, we just rent them out to companies so we wouldn't need to buy anyone out.[/QUOTE]
Who wants to borrow infinite amounts of cash with zero repercussions?
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52239415]Who wants to borrow infinite amounts of cash with zero repercussions?[/QUOTE]
Corbyn apparently.
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239462]Corbyn apparently.[/QUOTE]
How so?
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52239695]How so?[/QUOTE]
he won't tell you, carcar runs into every corbyn thread shouting 'magic money tree!' then runs for the hills when you give him some facts and figures.
[QUOTE=Crumpet;52239709]he won't tell you, carcar runs into every corbyn thread shouting 'magic money tree!' then runs for the hills when you give him some facts and figures.[/QUOTE]
It's funny. The UK is trapped underneath so much private debt, like pretty much every major economy. If anything Corbyn isn't extreme enough with the 'magic money tree'
[QUOTE=Crumpet;52239709]he won't tell you, carcar runs into every corbyn thread shouting 'magic money tree!' then runs for the hills when you give him some facts and figures.[/QUOTE]
The manifesto literally says he wants to spend £250 billion, where he's going to get this from nobody knows.
His entire plan seems to be built around borrowing and taxing the rich, both of which are horribly naive plans. The rich won't let you tax them, they'll either leave the country or dodge it somehow. His plans would pretty much kill investment in the country. Oh and of course the Tax on private schools will simply cause private schools to shift the fees onto parents, meaning less people will be able to afford to go to private schools which means more kids going to state schools which of course means it'll actually cost the state more in the long run.
It's all poorly thought out socialist crap, there's a reason Britain nearly fell apart in the 1970's and it was because of people who thought like Corbyn
I hate the attitude that we need to bend over and be rimmed by these rich people and companies who choose to take all the benefits of our society and give none in return. Grow a spine.
If you think all these Companies and people would just up and out after reversing tax cuts you're just wrong. Guess they'll all just up and leave to Hungary where they have 9% corporation tax. Wonder why they havent already? The supposition that our market will just be abandoned at the sight of Keynesianism (which is working fine and dandy in parts of Europe) is absurd. It's also not Socialism, at all, it's classic centre left capitalism and there is nothing extreme about it.
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239797]The manifesto literally says he wants to spend £250 billion, where he's going to get this from nobody knows.[/QUOTE]
Well gee, I wonder where the inventor of the pound will get the pounds from
[QUOTE=Crumpet;52239806]Actually, it's the attitude that we need to bend over and be rimmed by these rich people and companies who choose to take all the benefits of our society and give none in return. Grow a spine. Also if you think all these Companies and people would just up and out after reversing tax cuts you're just wrong. Guess they'll all just up and leave to Hungary where they have 9% corporation tax. Wonder why they havent already? The supposition that our market will just be abandoned at the sight of Keynesianism (which is working fine and dandy in many parts of Europe) is absurd. It's also not Socialism, at all.[/QUOTE]
Keynesianism doesn't work in a globalised world, capital is too mobile and international economies too interlinked. Obama attempted a Keynesian approach while he was in office and it did absolutely nothing.
[editline]17th May 2017[/editline]
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52239813]Well gee, I wonder where the inventor of the pound will get the pounds from[/QUOTE]
Oh yes, lets just print money! What could go wrong with that!
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239816]Oh yes, lets just print money! What could go wrong with that![/QUOTE]
Oh, I dunno. Judging by the growth in money supply caused by private banks creating deposits when they extend loans, what could go wrong indeed?
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52239824]Oh, I dunno. Judging by the growth in money supply caused by private banks creating deposits when they extend loans, what could go wrong indeed?[/QUOTE]
Other than horribly devaluing the currency and evaporating everyones savings?
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239816]Keynesianism doesn't work in a globalised world, capital is too mobile and international economies too interlinked. Obama attempted a Keynesian approach while he was in office and it did absolutely nothing.[/QUOTE]
Keynesianism doesn't work in a globalised world says man, ignorant of Keynesianism working great in a globalised world. FYI the US stimulus boosted growth by up to 4.5%. The Keynesian revival did measurable good for the world and made it right for the neolibs to go at the economy again. We've been in freefall with the Tories. Next recession when?
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239816]Oh yes, lets just print money! What could go wrong with that![/QUOTE]
I wonder where the Tories got their 750bn. Wasn't the deficit meant to be under control by 2015?
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239833]Other than horribly devaluing the currency and evaporating everyones savings?[/QUOTE]
So why hasn't the large amounts of money created by your banking system horribly davalued the currency and evaporated everyone's savings?
Could it be that if you boil the economy down to MV = PY, V and Y are not constants?
[QUOTE=Fr3ddi3;52235298]Ultimately, i's not what Labour says it wants to do that matters. It's weither you 'trust' them, under Corbyn, to deliver.[/QUOTE]
Hey, at least when the tories talk about their intentions to fucking gut every public service that should matter to us, at least they're true to their word
i'm probably gonna vote labour
what would you rather have, someone possibly completely incompetent but trying to do some good, or someone who is possibly very competent who has made it clear they just want to take a bat to your legs
not really a choice to me
tories controlling the debt is laughable since they've been in power 7 years and have maintained a massive deficit in all that time. our national debt keeps on growing (in fact its doubled under the tories) and there's no end in sight to the massive deficit that is slowly undermining the british economy
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52240007]tories controlling the debt is laughable since they've been in power 7 years and have maintained a massive deficit in all that time.[/QUOTE]
Not massive enough. You're still drowning under private debt.
[QUOTE] our national debt keeps on growing (in fact its doubled under the tories) and there's no end in sight to the massive deficit that is slowly undermining the british economy[/QUOTE]
how is adding financial assets to the economy undermining it when your economy is in a slump?
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52240029]how is adding financial assets to the economy undermining it when your economy is in a slump?[/QUOTE]
because we're being put into an increasingly fragile position. the debt to GDP ratio is growing (in a time of peace!) steadily. despite "cuts", they have had little impact on the deficit (if anything, they made it worse).
the problem is that if the past 7 years of tory rule has seen a steadily growing debt and deficit concurrent with stagnant wages and rising prices, we are going to become much worse off and our economy will be far less capable of handling black swan events
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52240038]because we're being put into an increasingly fragile position. the debt to GDP ratio is growing (in a time of peace!) steadily.[/QUOTE]
The only way you're going to clear your massive private debt to GDP ratio is by public spending. As it was with the great depression.
[QUOTE]despite "cuts", they have had little impact on the deficit (if anything, they made it worse).[/QUOTE]
They've definitely made it worse. Cutting government spending during a demand slump to try and curb rising public debt is a lot like trying to avoid bandages in order to stop blood loss. (edit: also with counter-stabilisers like welfare imagine there is a robot following you around that will forcefully bandage you if it detects unattended blood loss)
[QUOTE]the problem is that if the past 7 years of tory rule has seen a steadily growing debt and deficit concurrent with stagnant wages and rising prices, we are going to become much worse off and our economy will be far less capable of handling black swan events[/QUOTE]
Why would public debt make you far less capable of handling black swan events?
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52240038]despite "cuts", they have had little impact on the deficit (if anything, they made it worse).[/QUOTE]
You know what the argument will be: "True austerity hasn't been tried"
[QUOTE=NeonpieDFTBA;52235214]The free market works pretty well when it comes to things like cars and phones, and it seems like people then assume it's going to work in areas where there isn't really the same room for innovation and/or competition just isn't as effective (i.e. healthcare where you aren't going to go to a different hospital when you're in an ambulance because they've got 2 for 1 on transplants).
The funny thing is while it's being painted as pretty much communism in the media, in mainland Europe it'd all be considered standard[/QUOTE]
Germany has been privatising too much lately (in terms of hospitals and base infrastructure) and every single time it turned out really badly (pretty much always degrading service for a higher price, and often even [I]directly[/I] costing the state money, since politicians seem to be extremely bad at negotiating contracts).
Some places bought back (some of) their infrastructure and are seeing great returns on that investment though.
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52239078]
I don't think I can even be bothered voting this year though since all the parties are actually grim. This labour manifesto is such a joke,[/QUOTE]
or just get off yer arse and vote for someone who has views that align with yours. to quote Seuss: "Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing's going to get better."
[QUOTE=Cloak Raider;52239867]i'm probably gonna vote labour
what would you rather have, someone possibly completely incompetent but trying to do some good, or someone who is possibly very competent who has made it clear they just want to take a bat to your legs
not really a choice to me[/QUOTE]
Basically this.
Whatever you think about their ability- one of these parties has spent the last few years gutting our public services and wasting money victimising the poor and the disabled for [i]purely ideological reasons[/i].
So when people warn me that money might get wasted trying to make my life better- how is that supposed to put me off voting labour when the current government is already wasting money actively trying to make my life worse?.
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52240068]The only way you're going to clear your massive private debt to GDP ratio is by public spending. As it was with the great depression.[/quote]
but the public debt to GDP ratio is still growing rapidly in spite of the conservative governments promises to "get the deficit under control". it's been seven years at this point and there has been absolutely no improvement, they kept postponing the target until abandoning it completely.
[quote]Why would public debt make you far less capable of handling black swan events?[/QUOTE]
having the ability to borrow or keep a lot of money in reserve is a redundancy measure that helps protect you from the impact of black swan events
with the debt to gdp ratio and the total sum of public debt steadily rising (in a time of peace when our economy is weak at best with underemployment and declining real wages) this makes your ability to withstand them much worse. if we continue along this path we won't be prepared for the next such one.
the conservative government has failed in their goals and continued to fail. I'm tired of them
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52240326]but the public debt to GDP ratio is still growing rapidly in spite of the conservative governments promises to "get the deficit under control". it's been seven years at this point and there has been absolutely no improvement, they kept postponing the target until abandoning it completely.
having the ability to borrow or keep a lot of money in reserve is a redundancy measure that helps protect you from the impact of black swan events
with the debt to gdp ratio and the total sum of public debt steadily rising (in a time of peace when our economy is weak at best with underemployment and declining real wages) this makes your ability to withstand them much worse. if we continue along this path we won't be prepared for the next such one.
the conservative government has failed in their goals and continued to fail. I'm tired of them[/QUOTE]
What would you like to happen and do you think any of the parties reflect this with their current proposals?
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52240326]but the public debt to GDP ratio is still growing rapidly in spite of the conservative governments promises to "get the deficit under control". it's been seven years at this point and there has been absolutely no improvement, they kept postponing the target until abandoning it completely.[/QUOTE]
As I've said, efforts to "get the deficit under control" are counterproductive.
[QUOTE]having the ability to borrow or keep a lot of money in reserve is a redundancy measure that helps protect you from the impact of black swan events[/QUOTE]
nothing about public debt impacts your ability to borrow. Not to mention that keeping money in reserve is pretty much a meaningless term for a monetary system where the sovereign has to hold debt for the system to function.
[QUOTE]with the debt to gdp ratio and the total sum of public debt steadily rising (in a time of peace when our economy is weak at best with underemployment and declining real wages) this makes your ability to withstand them much worse. if we continue along this path we won't be prepared for the next such one.[/QUOTE]
This is in large part due to the UK being strangled by private debt like a lot of countries. The only way you're going to fix it is with a lot of public debt. Or you're just going to be plodding along like the rest of the countries that were relying on credit growth to fuel aggregate demand (and its corresponding effect on real output and GDP)
[QUOTE]the conservative government has failed in their goals and continued to fail. I'm tired of them[/QUOTE]
Yeah I don't live in the UK but I don't like them either. They seem like even bigger failures than the leading Australian right-wing party.
[QUOTE=Crumpet;52239839]Keynesianism doesn't work in a globalised world says man, ignorant of Keynesianism working great in a globalised world. FYI the US stimulus boosted growth by up to 4.5%. The Keynesian revival did measurable good for the world and made it right for the neolibs to go at the economy again. We've been in freefall with the Tories. Next recession when?
I wonder where the Tories got their 750bn. Wasn't the deficit meant to be under control by 2015?[/QUOTE]
4.5% is tiny when you consider how big of a stimulus it was. It's quite clear keynesianism isn't anywhere near as effective as it used to be.
and who cares if the tories didn't fix it, just because the tories are shit doesn't make Corbyn good.
[QUOTE=Goberfish;52240470]nothing about public debt impacts your ability to borrow. Not to mention that keeping money in reserve is pretty much a meaningless term for a monetary system where the sovereign has to hold debt for the system to function.[/quote]
how come there are countries with very low public debt then
[quote]This is in large part due to the UK being strangled by private debt like a lot of countries. The only way you're going to fix it is with a lot of public debt. Or you're just going to be plodding along like the rest of the countries that were relying on credit growth to fuel aggregate demand (and its corresponding effect on real output and GDP)[/QUOTE]
the japanese have been trying this for over 25 years and it has failed. all that happened is that their public debt to gdp ratio is twice the size of GDP and their economy has been stagnant or shrinking since the 1990s. a quarter of their government budget is spent on servicing their debt
britain has maintained a budget deficit for 7 years, in which time the national debt has not only continued to increase but the share of gdp allocated to servicing our debt (and the share of gdp that debt takes up) has increased.
given the conservatives present course i have no hope for the future of this country if they win another 5 years in power and (inevitably) fuck up their handling of brexit like they have the country
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;52240866]4.5% is tiny when you consider how big of a stimulus it was. It's quite clear keynesianism isn't anywhere near as effective as it used to be.[/QUOTE]
it's not tiny at all. Do you have any idea how much demand the stimulus had to make up for? The US economy was being almost entirely driven by broad money (and funnily enough was handling it, except for the bubble due to the nature of much of the money's liabilities) created by accelerating levels of private debt. And then when the GFC hit, that stopped.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52241075]how come there are countries with very low public debt then[/QUOTE]
Well in Australia, for instance, we've managed to avoid the need for larger public debt by enticing the private sector further and further into debt. Eventually we'll see a break like many countries did during the GFC, and we'll be in a similar situation to you guys if we don't do something serious to clear it.
[QUOTE]the japanese have been trying this for over 25 years and it has failed. all that happened is that their public debt to gdp ratio is twice the size of GDP and their economy has been stagnant or shrinking since the 1990s. a quarter of their government budget is spent on servicing their debt[/QUOTE]
They were absolutely drowning under private debt. It almost hit a ratio of 300% to GDP before their reliance on private debt growth bit them. They're still drowning at 220%.
Of course it's failed when it's still difficult for the private investment function of capitalism to work properly. But without the (inconsistent) attempts by the government to deal with the issue, they'd be even worse.
[QUOTE]britain has maintained a budget deficit for 7 years, in which time the national debt has not only continued to increase but the share of gdp allocated to servicing our debt (and the share of gdp that debt takes up) has increased.[/QUOTE]
Then it's not being used to effectively clear your glut of private debt, and is instead mostly servicing your current account deficit.
Keep in mind your economy's need for money growth was being met mostly by growth in private debt for a while. As your growth in private debt has stagnated, more money has had to be introduced somehow, and the only way that'll occur is through money matched by public debt.
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