He's not saying its impossible; he saying he has to step up his game. Howver, we're early in the primaries.
During the mid period it looked like Clinton was going to clinch the elections during 08 but she got snubbed at the last moment with the rest of the primaries.
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;49709223]lol I'm not trying to "bring down your spirits," I'm just analyzing the political situation. I am also a Bernie supporter, I'm just a realistic one. I think it's great that he took New Hampshire, sure. If nothing else, the fact that he made it far enough in this race to not only make it [I]to[/I] the primaries, but to actually take a state? That's incredible! I never would have predicted that a year ago. It does not, however, mean that he has the momentum necessary to take the nomination.[/QUOTE]
Never say never when it comes to Bernie. If you want him to win and support him, go rally for him. Donate, do whatever it takes. Don't go "We'll I like the guy but ya know good run!". It's not over till it's over.
[QUOTE=Swilly;49709218]Iowa wasn't one of his strongest states though?[/QUOTE]
In what sense? Every political analyst and statistician I've seen placed Iowa as one of the top 5 states where Bernie stood the greatest fighting chance.
[editline]9th February 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=The Rifleman;49709239]Never say never when it comes to Bernie. If you want him to win and support him, go rally for him. Donate, do whatever it takes. Don't go "We'll I like the guy but ya know good run!". It's not over till it's over.[/QUOTE]
I already have donated, and I will be voting for him come the Missouri primaries. I'm only saying that Sanders needs to generate a ton of momentum if he's going to overcome, because he's well short of where he needs to be.
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;49709241]In what sense? Every political analyst and statistician I've seen placed Iowa as one of the top 5 states where Bernie stood the greatest fighting chance.
[/QUOTE]
I heard the exact opposite; I wasn't expecting Bernie to win Iowa. That's why I was so excited to see how fucking close it came.
I still can't find a specific source on Trump officially winning yet.
[QUOTE=Govna;49708974]Doesn't matter; she didn't even try to put up a fight. That's the headline here, and that's what we need to run with.[/QUOTE]
There [I]is[/I] such a thing as 'picking one's battles'.
Why pour money and resources into a state that is going to be a predicted loss in any respect.
If Bernie wins the nomination, will he be called weak for not pouring millions in resources into trying to win Alabama in November?
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49709297]There [I]is[/I] such a thing as 'picking one's battles'.
Why pour money and resources into a state that is going to be a predicted loss in any respect.
If Bernie wins the nomination, will he be called weak for not pouring millions in resources into trying to win Alabama in November?[/QUOTE]
He'll have won the nomination. That's not the problem; we're currently at the start of primary season and she appears to not be fighting.
No matter how untrue or wise that is, to the undecided portion of the public, that may appear weak.
[QUOTE=Bradyns;49709273]I still can't find a specific source on Trump officially winning yet.[/QUOTE]
You mean the NH primary?
The votes are 25% counted. He has a 18% lead over Kasich. Do you honestly expect that he won't win?
Sure it's not officialy 100% confirmed, but the probability of Trump NOT winning is really low right now.
[QUOTE=Swilly;49709315]He'll have won the nomination. That's not the problem; we're currently at the start of primary season and she appears to not be fighting.
No matter how untrue or wise that is, to the undecided portion of the public, that may appear weak.[/QUOTE]
My point flew over your head by miles.
I'm excited to see Sanders win like this but I'm wondering if maybe an american who understands the finer details of the primary could explain this:
[thumb]http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r160/Elspin/delegates20160209_zpsxrdgl54c.png[/thumb]
When you search for the primary results in general you get this insane picture of something called a "super delegate" completely dwarfing Sanders despite the current delegate count from the actual primary results I've seen being overall pretty tied. How does this work?
Watching Hillary live now.. I just don't believe a word coming from her mouth. :words:
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;49709223]lol I'm not trying to "bring down your spirits," I'm just analyzing the political situation. I am also a Bernie supporter, I'm just a realistic one. I think it's great that he took New Hampshire, sure. If nothing else, the fact that he made it far enough in this race to not only make it [I]to[/I] the primaries, but to actually take a state? That's incredible! I never would have predicted that a year ago. It does not, however, mean that he has the momentum necessary to take the nomination.[/QUOTE]
Sanders did 5.7% better than the [URL="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html"]poll averages[/URL] before Iowa said he would do. I call that a win. Remember, winner does not take all in Iowa.
[QUOTE=Elspin;49709353]I'm excited to see Sanders win like this but I'm wondering if maybe an american who understands the finer details of the primary could explain this:
[thumb]http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r160/Elspin/delegates20160209_zpsxrdgl54c.png[/thumb]
When you search for the primary results in general you get this insane picture of something called a "super delegate" completely dwarfing Sanders despite the current delegate count from the actual primary results I've seen being overall pretty tied. How does this work?[/QUOTE]
Super delegates are the delegates controlled by the main party when it comes to the end of the primary, just as normal delegates are the ones actually holding the votes at the end of the election.
[QUOTE=Elspin;49709353]I'm excited to see Sanders win like this but I'm wondering if maybe an american who understands the finer details of the primary could explain this:
[thumb]http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r160/Elspin/delegates20160209_zpsxrdgl54c.png[/thumb]
When you search for the primary results in general you get this insane picture of something called a "super delegate" completely dwarfing Sanders despite the current delegate count from the actual primary results I've seen being overall pretty tied. How does this work?[/QUOTE]
Super delegates are those outside the electoral process, important party members, former major politicians, those sorts of thing. Basically they exist to insure the establishment always has an edge.
[QUOTE=Doctor Zedacon;49709420]Super delegates are those outside the electoral process, important party members, former major politicians, those sorts of thing. Basically they exist to insure the establishment always has an edge.[/QUOTE]
The entire system is a hold out from before people actually voted. General elections became a thing of out ease of use in the United States.
[QUOTE=Bradyns;49709362]Watching Hillary live now.. I just don't believe a word coming from her mouth. :words:[/QUOTE]
what is the td;lr of it?
[QUOTE=theevilldeadII;49709442]what is the td;lr of it?[/QUOTE]
Pretty run of the mill speech, but it didn't feel like the things she said had any heart behind them.
[video=youtube;MmvfDE5a8Vg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmvfDE5a8Vg[/video]
Bernie is killing it.
Looks like any effort Hillary spent in NH to whittle down how much sanders was going to win by was wasted. Coming out of Iowa sanders was polling at 20 points above her and it looks like he is still going to win by 20 percentage points.
Everyone gets irritated if you point out that Bernie has a hard fight ahead, lol. But it seems those people aren't the ones trying to vote in the primaries for Bernie.
BDA has fair points, hiding your head in the sand doesn't help. Use this to fight harder, and grt out and help the Sanders campaign as you can! I'm a busy goddamn student, like many people here, but I'm trying to caucus for Sanders ad well. Although I bet Seattle is probably going to be a sweep victory for Sanders, though. And thanks to the fucked population distribution of our state, he only has to control this and a few other western counties
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;49709199]Iowa was one of his strongest states. Losing that, even by a close margin, is a serious blow to his campaign, and a damning sign of times to come as the primaries move on to states where he has less support. Winning Iowa, followed up by a strong lead in New Hampshire, was crucial to the effort of building momentum that could help carry him into the more embattled states, and he did not win. So, he fell short. It was a loss. There's isn't a "close, but no cigar!" prize in politics. It wasn't "pretty much a victory," it was a straight loss. If he could not overcome Hillary in Iowa, then he does not have the momentum to surpass her in his less popular states (barring some incredible unexpected event of some sort).[/QUOTE]
Iowa is a very important first state for the election, but his voter turnout [B]did[/B] exceed expectations. Many analysts had him down between 5-10%. Finishing within ~.25% was a pretty good outcome for him, especially considering Hillary was the [B]easy[/B] favorite up until June/July (with her margin of victory surpassing Bernie's in NH).
Winning Iowa would have been an important milestone (and would be easier to spin), but it is possible for his campaign to use that "virtual tie" to change public perception in battleground states. What matters now is Bernie's ground game in SC, and the rest of the south for Super Tuesday... he's gotta win over minorities and flip some Hillary votes to stand a chance. I think his chances are better than you're picturing, but it will be an uphill battle.
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;49709241]In what sense? Every political analyst and statistician I've seen placed Iowa as one of the top 5 states where Bernie stood the greatest fighting chance.
[editline]9th February 2016[/editline]
I already have donated, and I will be voting for him come the Missouri primaries. I'm only saying that Sanders needs to generate a ton of momentum if he's going to overcome, because he's well short of where he needs to be.[/QUOTE]
in the top 5, NH, Vermont and the north east in general are his strongest area, iowa is in the middle of nowhere and he only had recognition there because he had 6 months of primary time to build it
[QUOTE=Bradyns;49709465]Pretty run of the mill speech, but it didn't feel like the things she said had any heart behind them.
[video=youtube;MmvfDE5a8Vg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmvfDE5a8Vg[/video]
Bernie is killing it.[/QUOTE]
Aw, it's not the CNN version of Hillary's speech. They changed the camera to the crowd when they were raising their signs but a person or two were slow on the draw.
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/GkEzOxP.jpg[/IMG]
Let's hear it for LLARY!
Bernie won nh :D feel the Bern!
[QUOTE=Elspin;49709353]I'm excited to see Sanders win like this but I'm wondering if maybe an american who understands the finer details of the primary could explain this:
[thumb]http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r160/Elspin/delegates20160209_zpsxrdgl54c.png[/thumb]
When you search for the primary results in general you get this insane picture of something called a "super delegate" completely dwarfing Sanders despite the current delegate count from the actual primary results I've seen being overall pretty tied. How does this work?[/QUOTE]
1st off, the only count of the superdelagates was from last november/decemberish and so its not really accurate after the two primaries and the upcomming contests, basically superdelagates are party leaders that get a vote at the convention, right now they're behind clinton because she was the frontrunner, but they tend to even out as the primaries go along as they aren't committed to anything until the DNC in august
Here comes trump.
[video=youtube;3mq5hrUDoYo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mq5hrUDoYo[/video]
[QUOTE=Doctor Zedacon;49709420]Super delegates are those outside the electoral process, important party members, former major politicians, those sorts of thing. Basically they exist to insure the establishment always has an edge.[/QUOTE]
With the grim outlook in that chart then, is there any way he can win? Can/will any of those delegates switch sides?
[QUOTE=apierce1289;49709535]Bernie won nh :D feel the Bern![/QUOTE]
People are getting excited as if this state would be difficult for him, it being right next door to the state he hails from.
[QUOTE=Elspin;49709549]With the grim outlook in that chart then, is there any way he can win? Can/will any of those delegates switch sides?[/QUOTE]
Super-delegates can change their vote up until the election.
Plus too there are several thousand delegates of which only about 700 or so are super delegates.
Are you folks ready for trump 2016?
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