Crimean Parliament votes to join Russian Federation - Polidicks

When is this tension going to cease?

[QUOTE=Explosions;44149388]What are the chances of the Ukrainian army restoring order to Crimea?[/QUOTE] By themselves - zero.

[QUOTE=sloppy_joes;44149264]What does that even mean? [B]Crimea is its own country within a state, much like the UK. Does Scotland not deserve a right to succeed?[/B] You might not agree with the motivations behind the succession, but there are clear boundaries and if the people of a local region want to split, why not let them? "The land is owned by everyone," no it's not, it's clearly divided by ethnic, political and economic ideological boundaries.[/QUOTE] Yeah, after a fair and free referendum recognized by both sides of the issue. Not a rushed referendum being made while the territory in question is occupied by another nation. I'd like to think we've moved past the point where nations could just strong-arm other nations into land cessations. I couldn't care less whether or not the Crimea legitimately wants to join the Russian Federation, but I sure as hell care when it's Moscow who's deciding when that will occur and not Kiev.

[QUOTE=sloppy_joes;44148138]The fact that territories can't hold votes to succeed. If the area is mostly ethnic Russians and they want to join the Russian federation then why is there a problem? Just because people think Russia will fix the vote?[/QUOTE]Many places have it stated that no portion of a country can vote to secede on their own, it must be put up to a national vote. In fact, I'd imagine most countries are like this in some form. It's not backwards.

I'm all for self determination and stuff but it has gotta be done properly, you cannot swear in a new parliament during an armed siege of a parliament building and then decide to separate. Especially not when there is an invasion in progress. IMO If the people of Crimea really wanted independence or union with Russia they would have gone with the flow in Kiev and gone about it "properly" once the dust settles. It just looks like a land grab at the moment. [QUOTE=gudman;44146844]That's gonna be fun. I wonder how many countries will recognize this kind of referendum. One, or would Nauru strike again?[/QUOTE] I'm guessing pretty much none.

[QUOTE=Doctor Zedacon;44149647]Many places have it stated that no portion of a country can vote to secede on their own, it must be put up to a national vote. In fact, I'd imagine most countries are like this in some form. It's not backwards.[/QUOTE] A moot point if the governments legitimacy is in question. It's a fact that the interim government did not gain power democratically.

What does Russia seek to gain from claiming Crimea as their own?

[QUOTE=BCell;44150093]What does Russia seek to gain from claiming Crimea as their own?[/QUOTE] The Russian Black Sea Fleet is stationed there, apparently it's really important for Russia

This situation is great example of modern politics. Revolt supported by one power is against revolt supported by another power. Also, for those who about occupation and shit. Ya know, Russian Black Sea Fleet was STATIONED in Crimea, soo why everyone was amased by amount of military poping up there? If you would be leader who saw revolution in nearby country who also happens to have your military stationed in friendly region, would you not take a turn on events? It's CIV V game all over again chaps.

[QUOTE=karimatrix;44150275]Also, for those who about occupation and shit. Ya know, Russian Black Sea Fleet was STATIONED in Crimea, soo why everyone was amased by amount of military poping up there? [/QUOTE] Well our military isn't supposed to run around the Crimea far from their bases. They took over everything and blocked Ukrainian military from leaving their bases. Dunno how would you call it man, but for all intents and purposes it's occupation executed by the numbers.

[QUOTE=karimatrix;44150275]If you would be leader who saw revolution in nearby country who also happens to have your military stationed in friendly region, would you not take a turn on events? It's CIV V game all over again chaps.[/QUOTE] How in the world does this wibbly-wobbly explanation excuse anything the RF has done so far? The interim goverment so far has not directly threatened in any way the Russian Federation, so from the worlds point of view its just blatant aggression.

[QUOTE=Hammerz;44150355]How in the world does this wibbly-wobbly explanation excuse anything the RF has done so far? The interim goverment so far has not directly threatened in any way the Russian Federation, so from the worlds point of view its just blatant aggression.[/QUOTE] Judging by how world reacts to any kind of political move nowadays, from Iraq invasion, Kosovo, Georgia or any other, the logic is quite simple -[B] in the end nobody give a damn[/B] cause something more discussion worthy pops up and hypetrain moves on.

[QUOTE=karimatrix;44150275]This situation is great example of modern politics. Revolt supported by one power is against revolt supported by another power. Also, for those who about occupation and shit. Ya know, Russian Black Sea Fleet was STATIONED in Crimea, soo why everyone was amased by amount of military poping up there? If you would be leader who saw revolution in nearby country who also happens to have your military stationed in friendly region, would you not take a turn on events? It's CIV V game all over again chaps.[/QUOTE] Why would the scuttle a ship to block a naval station and occupy an airport? Doesn't seem like self defense.

[QUOTE=BCell;44150093]What does Russia seek to gain from claiming Crimea as their own?[/QUOTE] Land

Isn't this bullshit to the extreme due to Russia flooding the area with Russians in order to claim that it's Russian? Or was it just giving the people there Russian passports to achieve the same result?

[QUOTE=pkhzor;44151173]Isn't this bullshit to the extreme due to Russia flooding the area with Russians in order to claim that it's Russian? Or was it just giving the people there Russian passports to achieve the same result?[/QUOTE] Ethnic Russians live there, up to 70% of the population (Sevastopol). "Flooding the area with Russians" :v:

I do love how everyone thinks that Russia won't get its way. In every scenario, it will. Ukraine gets almost all of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford to break ties with Russia. The European Union gets 40% or so of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford sanctions against Russia. The United States gets a fair percentage of its oil from Russia. While in a better position for sanctions, it still cannot afford it. Ukraine could get financial support from Western powers. Where does most of that money go? To pay off outstanding debts to Russia. Even then, they will have massive interest to pay off. In any situation, Ukraine loses because it must keep ties with Russia for gas, but now gas prices in Ukraine will be higher. In any situation, Russia wins.

[QUOTE=PolarEventide;44151490]I do love how everyone thinks that Russia won't get its way. In every scenario, it will. Ukraine gets almost all of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford to break ties with Russia. The European Union gets 40% or so of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford sanctions against Russia. The United States gets a fair percentage of its oil from Russia. While in a better position for sanctions, it still cannot afford it. Ukraine could get financial support from Western powers. Where does most of that money go? To pay off outstanding debts to Russia. Even then, they will have massive interest to pay off. In any situation, Ukraine loses because it must keep ties with Russia for gas, but now gas prices in Ukraine will be higher. In any situation, Russia wins.[/QUOTE] Ukraine will never break ties with Russia, the country will always have to paddle between the East and West, for the best interests of everybody, even the Ukrainian people.(Even the countrys name bears witness to this fact) What we have witnessed these past few months is a shift towards the West and the crumbling of Putins dream of joining Ukraine to the Eurasian Union. The shit that currently is going down in Crimea is directly the result of Putin not wanting to let go without a fight. The best thing Ukraines allies can do now is to harshly react to the occupation of Crimea and prevent the whole mess turning into a frozen conflict. (like Transnistria for example) From the idealist point of view, yes, Russia wins, because Ukraine will probably never join NATO or EU and its economy is in ruins, but objectively looking at it, the Russian Federation didnt reach its ambitions in Ukraine and with the new government Ukraine gained more sovereignty. (I will still note that the biggest losers in this case are the people living in Ukraine)

[QUOTE=Electrocuter;44147108]No, it isn't, what's hard to believe is that this referendum is even legit anymore.[/QUOTE] So uh why do you think a referendum in one piece of Ukraine is any less legit than a referendum in all of Ukraine

[QUOTE=PolarEventide;44151490]I do love how everyone thinks that Russia won't get its way. In every scenario, it will. Ukraine gets almost all of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford to break ties with Russia. The European Union gets 40% or so of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford sanctions against Russia. The United States gets a fair percentage of its oil from Russia. While in a better position for sanctions, it still cannot afford it. Ukraine could get financial support from Western powers. Where does most of that money go? To pay off outstanding debts to Russia. Even then, they will have massive interest to pay off. In any situation, Ukraine loses because it must keep ties with Russia for gas, but now gas prices in Ukraine will be higher. In any situation, Russia wins.[/QUOTE] We lose in the long run. Putin's great tactician, but he sucks at strategy and perspective. After "getting our way", we get lots of dead weight: Crimea will be a money sink. Infrastructure there is all fucking bust, requires assloads of maintenance, then we have people. Loads of people, and a lot of them are going to be quite unhappy about the whole thing and still unwilling to move out. The economy of Crimean republic will have to be rebuilt and switched to rouble, which is a lot of pain on it's own accord because rouble-hryvnia is unstable and 'fluent' as fuck, that is if we don't account the fact that region's economy is built around tourism (that will take a massive hit) and Russian naval bases. Then we have international resonance, [b]even if[/b] no sanctions will be placed, EU has already stopped all negotiations on points of lifting/simplifying visa regime, and those negotiations ate quite a lot of time and effort on our part, it's all wasted now. Diplomatic relations are going to get a hit as well, we're even less likely to achieve results in our favor for quite some time after this whole affair settles one way or the other. After the war in Georgia, we already had Europe seeking to jump off of our oil and gas "needles", now the process is going to go twice as fast, that's if we're lucky. Nobody likes being completely out of leverages. Investments - well the climate was already quite fucked, now it's FUBAR and won't ever improve until Putin's in power. Stock market - you can support the somewhat 'positive', if not neutral climate there with Central Bank's stabilization efforts only for so long. Rouble to dollar and euro rates are getting god awful, and if it continues to fall we might face extremely steep devaluation. Oh and by the way, did I mention that the whole affair with occupation/intervention w/e you like to call it, costs us quite a lot of money as it is? Because it does. Military maneuvers are expensive. Put alongside with recent wide military exercises, ongoing rearmament, Kerch Strait Bridge building, various other big projects like the new cosmodrome etc. etc. etc., all of it most likely already overblew the yearly budget to cover all of the expences that came crushing down on us in just two months! That's terrible for economy. We'll survive, sure, but we'd be lucky if by the end of it our quality of life won't sink really noticeably. And don't forget please, all of it is [b]if[/b] no trade sanctions are imposed. In an unfortunate* event of sanctions actually getting imposed and enforced, we're going to be absolutely [b]fucked[/b]. *Yes I really did say [i]un[/i]fortunate, because I'm on the recieving end of it all and can't side with everyone else on this one here, I'm Russian and have no intention of leaving no matter what, because for what it's worth, I love my country. Take it at face value.

[QUOTE=PolarEventide;44151490]I do love how everyone thinks that Russia won't get its way. In every scenario, it will. Ukraine gets almost all of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford to break ties with Russia. The European Union gets 40% or so of its oil from Russia. It cannot afford sanctions against Russia. The United States gets a fair percentage of its oil from Russia. While in a better position for sanctions, it still cannot afford it. Ukraine could get financial support from Western powers. Where does most of that money go? To pay off outstanding debts to Russia. Even then, they will have massive interest to pay off. In any situation, Ukraine loses because it must keep ties with Russia for gas, but now gas prices in Ukraine will be higher. In any situation, Russia wins.[/QUOTE] 4% ain't much [img]http://321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey070908c.jpg[/img] EU on the other hand... [img]http://www.palantirsolutions.com/getattachment/9ad5c144-f896-4be5-8c61-cc4bc5179989/sands.png[/img]

[QUOTE=gudman;44151999]We lose in the long run. Putin's great tactician, but he sucks at strategy and perspective. After "getting our way", we get lots of dead weight: Crimea will be a money sink. Infrastructure there is all fucking bust, requires assloads of maintenance, then we have people. Loads of people, and a lot of them are going to be quite unhappy about the whole thing and still unwilling to move out. The economy of Crimean republic will have to be rebuilt and switched to rouble, which is a lot of pain on it's own accord because rouble-hryvnia is unstable and 'fluent' as fuck, that is if we don't account the fact that region's economy is built around tourism (that will take a massive hit) and Russian naval bases. Then we have international resonance, [b]even if[/b] no sanctions will be placed, EU has already stopped all negotiations on points of lifting/simplifying visa regime, and those negotiations ate quite a lot of time and effort on our part, it's all wasted now. Diplomatic relations are going to get a hit as well, we're even less likely to achieve results in our favor for quite some time after this whole affair settles one way or the other. After the war in Georgia, we already had Europe seeking to jump off of our oil and gas "needles", now the process is going to go twice as fast, that's if we're lucky. Nobody likes being completely out of leverages. Investments - well the climate was already quite fucked, now it's FUBAR and won't ever improve until Putin's in power. Stock market - you can support the somewhat 'positive', if not neutral climate there with Central Bank's stabilization efforts only for so long. Rouble to dollar and euro rates are getting god awful, and if it continues to fall we might face extremely steep devaluation. Oh and by the way, did I mention that the whole affair with occupation/intervention w/e you like to call it, costs us quite a lot of money as it is? Because it does. Military maneuvers are expensive. Put alongside with recent wide military exercises, ongoing rearmament, Kerch Strait Bridge building, various other big projects like the new cosmodrome etc. etc. etc., all of it most likely already overblew the yearly budget to cover all of the expences that came crushing down on us in just two months! That's terrible for economy. We'll survive, sure, but we'd be lucky if by the end of it our quality of life won't sink really noticeably. And don't forget please, all of it is [b]if[/b] no trade sanctions are imposed. In an unfortunate* event of sanctions actually getting imposed and enforced, we're going to be absolutely [b]fucked[/b]. *Yes I really did say [i]un[/i]fortunate, because I'm on the recieving end of it all and can't side with everyone else on this one here, I'm Russian and have no intention of leaving no matter what, because for what it's worth, I love my country. Take it at face value.[/QUOTE] 1) The value of Crimea to the Russian Federation is immense, and we must remember that historically, Crimea [i]is not[/i] Ukrainian. Crimea, previously an Ottoman territory, was annexed by the Russian Empire in 1783. It was only in 1954 that the Soviet Union released Crimea to Ukraine. Crimea is a integral port region for Russian commerce and naval power in the Black Sea because of its warm ports. 2) It is not as if the European Union can simply spawn enough oil to fill the gap for the two-fifths of necessary oil that they would be in deficit of if they ceased purchasing oil from the Russian Federation. 3) The Ukrainian economy, while far from being the worst in the post-Warsaw Pact states, is not very good. Crimea could benefit economically from being a part of the Russian Federation. 4) Military maneuvers are expensive, granted, but the Russian Federation would lose more money from a loss of influence in Crimea. I do not think that you really appreciate the importance of Crimea to the Russian economy. People have a tendency to misunderstand the situation in Ukraine, because people do not appreciate Vladimir Putin for the man he is. Western media loves to paint Vladimir Putin as a warmongering, power-hungry tyrant. Vladimir Putin is far from being this. Putin is a tenacious, aggressive, calculated, and incredibly intelligent leader who cares only about furthering his country. He only becomes involved in international affairs when it directly affects his nation, and all of his moves are, without doubt, pondered over extensively, and I would imagine that he considers all of his options. People tend to blow off Vladimir Putin, because they rarely ever bother to stop and contemplate what his real intentions are. The man is not stupid. Stupid men do not rise to the rank of lieutenant colonel in the KGB, nor do they amass the amount of political influence that Vladimir Putin truly has. The Western powers can pout all they want about the situation in Ukraine, but there is very little of true value that the West can afford to do.

[QUOTE=NotMeh;44148954]You know, at this point, I'm convinced there is no 'good side' in this conflict The interim government are a bunch of shitheads who fucked up their own revolution and now are demanding Crimea to abide by the constitution that they've broken multiple times. Don't even get me started on the Svoboda fraction of the Euromaidan. But Putin is also a massive shithead for obvious reasons, including repeatedly escalating tensions and fucking up his economy, which will mostly hit his people, who he apparently cares about OH SO MUCH.[/QUOTE] Rarely in any revolution is there a "good side" and "bad side". Reality, very much unlike story books, is not filled with heroes and villains. Only just people. And people are filled with hope, kindness, cruelty and hatred. There will never be a good/bad black & white view of anything in reality. [editline]6th March 2014[/editline] [QUOTE=LVL FACTORY;44150746]Land[/QUOTE] Russia has plenty of land. It has land coming out the ass. It doesn't need it. And Putin is a heartless bastard, he couldn't care less about "ethnic Russians" safety. What Russia wants isn't land but a crippled and submissive Ukraine. Absorbing, or at the very least detaching, Crimea from Ukraine will do just that. They don't even have to be successful, just create enough animosity between Crimea and Ukraine to cause a few decades of instability. Then Russia can turn Ukraine into a puppet state as Putin attempts to regain the lost countries from the collapse of the Russian Soviet Empire.

[QUOTE=gudman;44151999]w . And don't forget please, all of it is [b]if[/b] no trade sanctions are imposed. In an unfortunate* event of sanctions actually getting imposed and enforced, we're going to be absolutely [b]fucked[/b]. .[/QUOTE] wait what do you mean by sanction's what would happen exactly.?

[QUOTE=theevilldeadII;44153982]wait what do you mean by sanction's what would happen exactly.?[/QUOTE] Every day people in Russia will get poorer than they already are while the elites in government with Putin at the wheel will continue to ruin Russia by trading off possible wealth for supposed international political power.

[QUOTE=gudman;44146844]That's gonna be fun. I wonder how many countries will recognize this kind of referendum. One, or would Nauru strike again?[/QUOTE] UK will recognize it if they pass it....

[QUOTE=gudman;44146844]That's gonna be fun. I wonder how many countries will recognize this kind of referendum. One, or would Nauru strike again?[/QUOTE] Nauru?

[QUOTE=Glitchman;44152084]4% ain't much [img]http://321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey070908c.jpg[/img] EU on the other hand... [img]http://www.palantirsolutions.com/getattachment/9ad5c144-f896-4be5-8c61-cc4bc5179989/sands.png[/img][/QUOTE] So what you're saying is that the US and Canada should wage a joint invasion over the Bering Strait, annexing much of Eastern Russia so as to have a landed trade route. It would completely take advantage of Russia's inability to push a large-scale mobilization. I like the way you think. EDIT: Foolproof plan. [t]http://i.imgur.com/Np2ofWt.jpg[/t]

[QUOTE=Glitchman;44152084]4% ain't much [img]http://321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey070908c.jpg[/img] EU on the other hand... [img]http://www.palantirsolutions.com/getattachment/9ad5c144-f896-4be5-8c61-cc4bc5179989/sands.png[/img][/QUOTE] If iran opens up like it showed signs of it recently(in a way it has no other option, it's encircled left and right by nato occupied countries-iraq and afghanistan), europe can buy plenty from iran & co, via turk pipelines. To whom does the middle east&north africa sell its oil anyway?

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;44154134]Every day people in Russia will get poorer than they already are while the elites in government with Putin at the wheel will continue to ruin Russia by trading off possible wealth for supposed international political power.[/QUOTE] Uh we're not poor. But we're gonna be if the trade sanctions will be imposed yes. Purchasing power will hit the floor on most everything but necessity, food and necessary stuff are going to be supported by the state, no doubt. [QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;44154798]Nauru?[/QUOTE] Yes, they recognized the Abkhazia and South Ossetia for money. They have a history with that.