• UK to overtake France and become ‘most populous nation in Europe by 2050'
    52 replies, posted
what is going to make the UK the most attractive country in the EU if not prosperity? [editline]4th January 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=_Axel;51623366]Where do you gather that it is or will be the most attractive country?[/QUOTE] attractive for migration.
[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51623369]what is going to make the UK the most attractive country in the EU if not prosperity? [editline]4th January 2017[/editline] attractive for migration.[/QUOTE] And where does it say in the article that it will be the most attractive country for immigration in Europe?
Weird that they are comparing it first to France when Germany currently has 15 million more people than UK and France. Probably some UK vs France thing ? Also, they expect Germany to lose 6 million people in the next 30 years. That could cause some very serious issues for Germany.
[QUOTE=AntonioR;51623396]Weird that they are comparing it first to France when Germany currently has 15 million more people than UK and France. Probably some UK vs France thing ? Also, they expect Germany to lose 6 million people in the next 30 years. That could cause some very serious issues for Germany.[/QUOTE] Germany is predicted to have a population decrease soon enough; makes sense to compare the UK vs France.
[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51623421]Germany is predicted to have a population decrease soon enough; makes sense to compare the UK vs France.[/QUOTE] A population decrease of over 15 million in 20 years? That's not happening, lol.
[QUOTE=ben1066;51622977]I mean, increasing population doesn't have to cause issues with our services, would require our government to actually be investing in them which doesn't seem likely under a Conservative government.[/QUOTE] Pretty much. The systematic underfunding and defunding of all those things over the past few decades is to blame for them not being able to cope with an increasing population.
[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51623248] so what is going to make the UK with it's doomed economy so attractive for the next 30 odd years to anyone? [/QUOTE] What makes the US, a country with more gun crime than any other first world nation, horrible social inequality, judicial racism, etc... attractive to immigrants? probably something along the lines of "any step upward is better than none." Immigrants are drawn to countries by promises/chances of better lives, false promises or not. And tbh it's not that hard to look around your neighbourhood in a shanty town in the middle of shithole nowhere, where your neighbour died last week because he drank some bad water, or where a local warlord/cartel kills and kidnaps people for whatever reason and thinking, "hmm, maybe I'd rather like to take a chance somewhere else, anything must be better than this." Look at all the people who immigrated to the US early on just to face abject poverty and prejudice on promises of "The American Dream", and they didn't even come from the worst living conditions possible.
[QUOTE=JustExtreme;51623498]Pretty much. The systematic underfunding and defunding of all those things over the past few decades is to blame for them not being able to cope with an increasing population.[/QUOTE] Someone correct me if I'm being crazy here but I don't see how an increase in population would cause issues with services since there should also be an increase in services because of the increase in the population?
[QUOTE=MrJazzy;51623669]Someone correct me if I'm being crazy here but I don't see how an increase in population would cause issues with services since there should also be an increase in services because of the increase in the population?[/QUOTE] If it's because of immigration you have people coming into the country at various ages, and so their time as a working member of the society may be considerable shorter than someone born in the country and working their entire life, and thus they pay less into the pool through tax, and so when they go to collect benefits as they age, they are in a way not having to put in as much as they are getting out. Also with first generation immigrants they often use more social programs as well.
[QUOTE=MrJazzy;51623669]Someone correct me if I'm being crazy here but I don't see how an increase in population would cause issues with services since there should also be an increase in services because of the increase in the population?[/QUOTE] Not with no funding increases and a skills-gap for vital services and stuff it's like slowly watching your arm get gangrene and fall off.
[QUOTE=Ajacks;51623683]If it's because of immigration you have people coming into the country at various ages, and so their time as a working member of the society may be considerable shorter than someone born in the country and working their entire life, and thus they pay less into the pool through tax, and so when they go to collect benefits as they age, they are in a way not having to put in as much as they are getting out. Also with first generation immigrants they often use more social programs as well.[/QUOTE] I'd love some stats on this actually because I can see this being the case for older people, but someone being born and raised somewhere else and then coming to the UK to work, wouldn't they contribute more since they spent their time being "unproductive" elsewhere? [editline]5th January 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Thomo_UK;51623712]Not with no funding increases and a skills-gap for vital services and stuff it's like slowly watching your arm get gangrene and fall off.[/QUOTE] Sure, but that's assuming there are no funding increases and that the increase in the population is specifically less skilled in general compared to the population before the increase.
Jesus this whole thread was deliberately made in order to create arguments and cause brexit arguments. Thanks, Bohemian, thanks a bunch.
In other news: Britain has started researching technology in Japan.
[QUOTE=Thomo_UK;51622962]Not good for our housing situation, or jobs, or NHS, or anything really. We're listing starboard and the bulkheads aren't working captain.[/QUOTE] There's usually a bit of a decline for a bit, but increased birthrate tends to be good for a country's economy. Without youth to subsidize the elderly's living expenses, social programs tend to not do so well.
This country's well on its way down the shitter and I don't see that changing any time soon. I want out.
[QUOTE=F.X Clampazzo;51623558]What makes the US, a country with more gun crime than any other first world nation, horrible social inequality, judicial racism, etc... attractive to immigrants? probably something along the lines of "any step upward is better than none." Immigrants are drawn to countries by promises/chances of better lives, false promises or not. And tbh it's not that hard to look around your neighbourhood in a shanty town in the middle of shithole nowhere, where your neighbour died last week because he drank some bad water, or where a local warlord/cartel kills and kidnaps people for whatever reason and thinking, "hmm, maybe I'd rather like to take a chance somewhere else, anything must be better than this." Look at all the people who immigrated to the US early on just to face abject poverty and prejudice on promises of "The American Dream", and they didn't even come from the worst living conditions possible.[/QUOTE] I think that people around the world still consider the US as the land of opportunity, as an avid traveller to Europe, Northern Africa and Asia I must admit that I was mildly surprised at the visible levels of poverty in the US. I am sort of confused on what these predictions were based on as they seem to contradict almost all other predictions about how the UK is going to end up, as you said immigrants are clearly drawn to economically stable countries hence why so many crossed untold borders to get to their chosen destinations.
[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51627973]I think that people around the world still consider the US as the land of opportunity, as an avid traveller to Europe, Northern Africa and Asia I must admit that I was mildly surprised at the visible levels of poverty in the US. I am sort of confused on what these predictions were based on as they seem to contradict almost all other predictions about how the UK is going to end up, as you said immigrants are clearly drawn to economically stable countries hence why so many crossed untold borders to get to their chosen destinations.[/QUOTE] Your argument really is a stretch, I don't think immigrants know more than anybody else how the UK is going to end up financially. If experts make predictions that contradict what immigrants think I don't see how that means their predictions are wrong. Besides, what predictions are you referring to? I don't believe there are any that say the UK is going to collapse or anything. They all say it will be worse off than if it stayed within the union, but for immigrants, especially those who come from outside Europe, that will still be an attractive place to live in compared to their current situation.
[QUOTE=_Axel;51628024]Your argument really is a stretch, I don't think immigrants know more than anybody else how the UK is going to end up financially. If experts make predictions that contradict what immigrants think I don't see how that means their predictions are wrong. Besides, what predictions are you referring to? I don't believe there are any that say the UK is going to collapse or anything. They all say it will be worse off than if it stayed within the union, but for immigrants, especially those who come from outside Europe, that will still be an attractive place to live in compared to their current situation.[/QUOTE] There are varying levels of predictions for sure but my point is that the general long term consensus seems to be that the UK is going to struggle whilst Europe is going to thrive and yet the country of choice in the next 30 years will be the UK whilst that of some major EU countries like Germany for instance will fall dramatically. This just seems like it's bucking the trends.
[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51628061]There are varying levels of predictions for sure but my point is that the general long term consensus seems to be that the UK is going to struggle whilst Europe is going to thrive and yet the country of choice in the next 30 years will be the UK whilst that of some major EU countries like Germany for instance will fall dramatically. This just seems like it's bucking the trends.[/QUOTE] "The country of choice"? Where does it say that in the article? It only says that it could become more populous than France but that doesn't mean it will be the most emigrated to country. [editline]5th January 2017[/editline] Population and growth just are two different things. I don't see why you think the two are identical. Germany has decent growth but steep population decline for instance.
[QUOTE=ben1066;51622977]I mean, increasing population doesn't have to cause issues with our services, would require our government to actually be investing in them which doesn't seem likely under a Conservative government.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=JustExtreme;51623498]Pretty much. The systematic underfunding and defunding of all those things over the past few decades is to blame for them not being able to cope with an increasing population.[/QUOTE] This can't be stressed enough. It grinds my gears to no end whenever I watch the news and they have another daily story about how "under strain" the NHS is and how hospitals can barely cope, and then they have a laugh about it suggesting that people just need to use the health services less. Here's a quote from one of the BBC news reporters today (I think it was on Look North): "If you've got a cold, just stay at home, get plenty of rest and drink lots of fluids; and if you've got a broken fingernail, an emery board should do" Cut back to anchors smiling and giggling away at that particular rib-tickler. Wasn't there a major worry not so long ago, over cancer cases not being diagnosed in time because people were just living with the symptoms? All that 'British stiff upper lip'/not wanting to make a fuss being a legit national health concern? Now it's all falling to pieces and it's the fault of selfish NHS users and immigrants. Ignore the fact that the tories have massively defunded the NHS and gave junior doctors and other staff a load of shit for not working themselves to death to make up for it. Here's an idea, if we really are going to be 'the most populous nation in Europe by 2050', why don't we start preparing now. Considering we don't even have sufficient infrastructure for our current populace, it seems like some more public spending to fix that issue wouldn't be amiss.
[QUOTE=_Axel;51628419]"The country of choice"? Where does it say that in the article? It only says that it could become more populous than France but that doesn't mean it will be the most emigrated to country. [editline]5th January 2017[/editline] Population and growth just are two different things. I don't see why you think the two are identical. Germany has decent growth but steep population decline for instance.[/QUOTE] In the article it say's: The statisticians say that without Britain’s high rates of immigration, the UK’s population would stay lower than France’s for a further 50 years. Which suggests that the populous growing is due to immigration rather than growth and will also have the highest populous in Europe by 2050. I don't think the 2 are identical I just read the article properly, I don't know why you seem to be salty about it?
[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51632378]In the article it say's: The statisticians say that without Britain’s high rates of immigration, the UK’s population would stay lower than France’s for a further 50 years. Which suggests that the populous growing is due to immigration rather than growth and will also have the highest populous in Europe by 2050. I don't think the 2 are identical I just read the article properly, I don't know why you seem to be salty about it?[/QUOTE] So if there was no immigration to the UK, they would have negative population growth or growth too small to overtake the rest of Europe. That does indeed mean that the positive growth rate is due in part to immigration. The UK, which already has the third highest population in Europe, is speculated to have the highest population in 2050. And? How does any of this mean that the UK has or will have the highest immigration rate in Europe? A country like Germany may very well have a higher immigration rate but still lose out to the UK population-wise because of its low birthrate. You may have read the article, but you're drawing incorrect conclusions from it. I don't see how pointing that out means I'm salty.
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