[QUOTE=patq911;49826693]He has to not lose awfully to "win" tuesday. There are a lot of sympathetic states coming up soon where bernie has a good chance of winning.[/QUOTE]
The after affect from a near shutout on super tuesday will more than likely swing some voters
[QUOTE=patq911;49826693]He has to not lose awfully to "win" tuesday. There are a lot of sympathetic states coming up soon where bernie has a good chance of winning.[/QUOTE]
The top 5 states with the most delegates to win are
1. California
2. New York
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Pennsylvania
[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016[/url]
Poll in California: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html]Clinton has the lead[/url]
Poll in New York: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html]Clinton has the lead[/url]
Poll in Texas: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_democratic_presidential_primary-4158.html]Clinton has a lead[/url]
Poll in Florida: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html]Clinton has another lead[/url]
Poll in Pennsylvania: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html]Clinton has ANOTHER lead[/url]
So that's the top 5 states with the most delegates, arguable the only ones that really matter and Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls for each and every one of them.
Bernie is anything but a pipe dream ron paul at this point
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49826764]The top 5 states with the most delegates to win are
1. California
2. New York
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Pennsylvania
[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016[/url]
Poll in California: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html]Clinton has the lead[/url]
Poll in New York: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html]Clinton has the lead[/url]
Poll in Texas: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_democratic_presidential_primary-4158.html]Clinton has a lead[/url]
Poll in Florida: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html]Clinton has another lead[/url]
Poll in Pennsylvania: [url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html]Clinton has ANOTHER lead[/url]
So that's the top 5 states with the most delegates, arguable the only ones that really matter and Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls for each and every one of them.[/QUOTE]
So these past two threads announcing that Sanders has the lead nationally were actually just bullshit?
I've seen another polling from that site where Hillary was also in the lead almost everywhere.
[QUOTE=Doom64hunter;49826851]So these past two threads announcing that Sanders has the lead nationally were actually just bullshit?
I've seen another polling from that site where Hillary was also in the lead almost everywhere.[/QUOTE]
Those threads were about one off polls realclear is a collection of polls, hell one even had a disclaimer of
"This article was updated to clarify Sanders’ lead was among all respondents, not among registered Democrats or likely Democratic primary voters. We apologize for the omission.)"
[QUOTE=Doom64hunter;49826851]So these past two threads announcing that Sanders has the lead nationally were actually just bullshit?
I've seen another polling from that site where Hillary was also in the lead almost everywhere.[/QUOTE]
If you look into those threads, you'll find that eventually the posters in them discover that the polls are either bias or untrustworthy in some way.
Yes, Bernie has done great, especially with being relatively unknown 8 months ago. But he's not winning.
[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;49826808]Bernie is anything but a pipe dream ron paul at this point[/QUOTE]
I don't remember Ron Paul even getting a fraction of this much actual support. Paul was loved by edgelord 14 year olds on the Internet who didn't actually understand his policy and just clung to the "yeah man legal weed!" part of Libertarian drug policy.
Sanders does have a pretty solid supporter base in reality. It's a shame he's not outright winning. But to see a literal underdog get a few good hits in, nearly matching the establishment candidate in most recent primaries, is nothing short of impressive. People overhyped themselves for him, but the reality is he is doing better than anyone who wasn't hyped dared to expect.
[QUOTE=hexpunK;49826888]I don't remember Ron Paul even getting a fraction of this much actual support. Paul was loved by edgelord 14 year olds on the Internet who didn't actually understand his policy and just clung to the "yeah man legal weed!" part of Libertarian drug policy.
Sanders does have a pretty solid supporter base in reality. It's a shame he's not outright winning. But to see a literal underdog get a few good hits in, nearly matching the establishment candidate in most recent primaries, is nothing short of impressive. People overhyped themselves for him, but the reality is he is doing better than anyone who wasn't hyped dared to expect.[/QUOTE]
Saying Ron Paul supporters are just teenagers who want legalized weed is the same as calling all Bernie Sanders supporters as dumb kids who just want "free stuff".
But anyway, Ron Paul did do well in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He got devastated in South Carolina, however, (not surprising given his strong pro-peace foreign policy in a heavily pro-military state) and he never recovered due to lack of media attention.
I have hope for Sanders still, my only worry is that the media will SLAM sanders for not doing well in SC and on Super Tuesday, which could kill his image of being electable in the eyes of the public. I've been watching multiple news stations every day over the elections and it sucks to see how little support Sanders gets there, it's clearly biased to anyone who knows a decent amount about politics.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49826910]Saying Ron Paul supporters are just teenagers who want legalized weed is the same as calling all Bernie Sanders supporters as dumb kids who just want "free stuff".
But anyway, Ron Paul did do well in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He got devastated in South Carolina, however, (not surprising given his strong pro-peace foreign policy in a heavily pro-military state) and he never recovered due to lack of media attention.[/QUOTE]
I tend to see a much larger variety in the Sanders supporters than I ever really remember seeing in the Paul supporters online. It's hard for me to say what it was like on a real-world level as, like you said, the guy got near zero media attention.
Especially on this forum, the only reason I ever saw out of those supporting him was "the druggers would be doable tho".
[QUOTE=hexpunK;49826934]I tend to see a much larger variety in the Sanders supporters than I ever really remember seeing in the Paul supporters online. It's hard for me to say what it was like on a real-world level as, like you said, the guy got near zero media attention.
Especially on this forum, the only reason I ever saw out of those supporting him was "the druggers would be doable tho".[/QUOTE]
I was just about the biggest supporter on the forum for Ron Paul, I created the most threads covering his campaign and posted the most in those threads with what other few supporters there were. Very rarely was drugs mentioned except for the extreme opposition to him saying "oh you guys just want drugs" (which for me is just blatantly false as I've never done weed before nor have any care to do so in the future).
I think sanders is gonna do better than expected in sc. Maybe he'll only lose by 15 or 10 points, and if he cuts her lead to the single digits that would be sweet
[QUOTE=cody8295;49826959]I think sanders is gonna do better than expected in sc. Maybe he'll only lose by 15 or 10 points, and if he cuts her lead to the single digits that would be sweet[/QUOTE]
Second place is still losing.
You don't win the nomination by [I]almost[/I] getting the delegates needed.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49826952]I was just about the biggest supporter on the forum for Ron Paul, I created the most threads covering his campaign and posted the most in those threads with what other few supporters there were. Very rarely was drugs mentioned except for the extreme opposition to him saying "oh you guys just want drugs" (which for me is just blatantly false as I've never done weed before nor have any care to do so in the future).[/QUOTE]
Oh I know all that, my posts aren't pops at you in particular because you're probably one of the only Libertarians on here who isn't a total wasteland of a person.
Sanders is projected to lose by 20%.
[QUOTE=cody8295;49826959]I think sanders is gonna do better than expected in sc. Maybe he'll only lose by 15 or 10 points, and if he cuts her lead to the single digits that would be sweet[/QUOTE]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/93ylJ0M.png[/img]
not looking good so far
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49826966]Second place is still losing.
You don't win the nomination by [I]almost[/I] getting the delegates needed.[/QUOTE]
Close margins isn't necessarily losing. Sanders is going to sweep the northern states following SC and Super Tuesday - he'll gain loads of delegates with pretty high predicted margins in the north.
Delegates are proportional. Closing a lead from 30 points to 10 gets more delegates and makes the "win" all the more meaningless. Iowa's a great example - one extra delegate isn't going to help Hillary win the nomination much at all.
I'm optimistic about Sanders, and yes he's still losing, but following SC and Super Tuesday he has a lineup of states that are all pro-Sanders, and will continue to grow pro-Sanders leading up to their primaries/caucuses.
[QUOTE=.Isak.;49826988]Close margins isn't necessarily losing. Sanders is going to sweep the northern states following SC and Super Tuesday - he'll gain loads of delegates with pretty high predicted margins in the north.
Delegates are proportional. Closing a lead from 30 points to 10 gets more delegates and makes the "win" all the more meaningless. Iowa's a great example - one extra delegate isn't going to help Hillary win the nomination much at all.
I'm optimistic about Sanders, and yes he's still losing, but following SC and Super Tuesday he has a lineup of states that are all pro-Sanders, and will continue to grow pro-Sanders leading up to their primaries/caucuses.[/QUOTE]
No, it will only snowball against Bernie after super tuesday, losing by a landslide that late isn't good for your campaign or anything. The large states he needs are pro hillary buy some largish margin, small northern states mean jack shit compared to california and texas
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49826966]Second place is still losing.
You don't win the nomination by [I]almost[/I] getting the delegates needed.[/QUOTE]
Its winning when he's running against somebody who was supposed to win big in said state. Bernies gonna win some other states so we'll see the real winner is
[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;49826994]No, it will only snowball against Bernie after super tuesday, losing by a landslide that late isn't good for your campaign or anything[/QUOTE]
Super Tuesday isn't "that late," though - it's five states in. It won't look good, but there's still a great possibility that he can pull off a swing using the north. A poll from a while back showed Sanders at 45-54 in Texas - those types of margins could be plenty to carry him through ST and keep him propped up long enough to pull in the northern votes.
Looking like it's gonna be Clinton VS. Trump. Lose Lose either way... Really was hoping Sanders would've had some room to come back, but that's not looking like the case anymore...
[QUOTE=Rocko's;49827004]Looking like it's gonna be Clinton VS. Trump. Lose Lose either way... Really was hoping Sanders would've had some room to come back, but that's not looking like the case anymore...[/QUOTE]
He has plenty of room to come back... Super Tuesday cuts off most of the southern states, which is where Clinton has the majority of her support. Sanders' campaign is still growing. If he can push past next Tuesday with expected margins or higher, there's a very good chance he can win.
Implying that his campaign is dead entirely when he has at least 20 more states he's almost guaranteed to win by fairly decent margins is absurd. There's still a very real chance - it'll look rough after tuesday, but a decent chance he can pull it off. Far better chances than Rubio or Cruz have against Trump.
[QUOTE=.Isak.;49826988]Close margins isn't necessarily losing. Sanders is going to sweep the northern states following SC and Super Tuesday - he'll gain loads of delegates with pretty high predicted margins in the north.
Delegates are proportional. Closing a lead from 30 points to 10 gets more delegates and makes the "win" all the more meaningless. Iowa's a great example - one extra delegate isn't going to help Hillary win the nomination much at all.
I'm optimistic about Sanders, and yes he's still losing, but following SC and Super Tuesday he has a lineup of states that are all pro-Sanders, and will continue to grow pro-Sanders leading up to their primaries/caucuses.[/QUOTE]
The northern states are worthless in terms of delegates. So what if they split a handful of delegates, Clinton has a substantial lead in the biggest delegate states.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49827029]The northern states are worthless in terms of delegates. So what if they split a handful of delegates, Clinton has a substantial lead in the biggest delegate states.[/QUOTE]
Superdelegates will eventually pledge for bernie when they realize clinton is unelectable againstany GOP candidate
Hilary Clinton is appreciated by black voters because she has a track record of getting things done that have benefited them greatly, so they see her as a dependable candidate for helping them. African American voters even favored Clinton over Obama before Iowa showed Obama had a chance at winning in 2008. Clinton has more experience in this game than Bernie could ever hope to. Bernie can't really make a statement about African Americans without going "...And that's why income inequality is bad and I'll make it better." Really makes him look like a single-issue president. The good thing about Bernie's campaign is that it's made Hilary Clinton address the issues Bernie brings up, so she adapts her campaign message further to left which was the ultimate goal of Bernie's campaign in the first place.
Don't be surprised when Black voters feel more comfortable voting for someone they deem reliable than an idealistic hotshot from the whitest state in the union. And don't say they "don't know what's best for them."
[QUOTE=cody8295;49827035]Superdelegates will eventually pledge for bernie when they realize clinton is unelectable againstany GOP candidate[/QUOTE]
HAHAHAHAHAHA You can not seriously believe this. Clinton is part of their system, their image, and their interests. Bernie is an outsider with some young votes who make a lot of noise.
It makes no sense for the DNC to throw away their popularity with the american people to elect someone not winning.
[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;49827043]HAHAHAHAHAHA You can not seriously believe this. Clinton is part of their system, their image, and their interests. Bernie is an outsider with some young votes who make a lot of noise.
It makes no sense for the DNC to throw away their popularity with the american people to elect someone not winning.[/QUOTE]
And yet bernie holds a wider margin win against every GOP candidate than clinton. Shes a huge risk to the dnc, they might as well hand over the election
[QUOTE=Rangergxi;49826558]Trump is hated by big business because they don't control him.[/QUOTE]
You're delusional if you believe that. Trump is going to be the most Big Business candidate there is. They don't control him because they know they don't have to in order to be benefited from his presidency.
In general election match up estimates
[QUOTE=cody8295;49827060]And yet bernie holds a wider margin win against every GOP candidate than clinton. Shes a huge risk to the dnc, they might as well hand over the election[/QUOTE]
It doesn't matter if he supposedly does or not, the way they will see it and the way everyone else sees it is. That if he can't win against Hillary than he has no chance winning votes against Trump or the GOP
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