This will be interesting considering their previous satellite launch a few years ago. They may be on their way to developing an ICBM.
[QUOTE=redBadger;49620098]"long range" of 50 meters[/QUOTE]
Underestimating the "enemy" is never a good idea though.
They're a large collection of humans, they may surprise us one day.
FP seems to doubt NKs capabilities. For all we know they actually have capable ICBMs and working nuclear warheads (hello seismic activity over NK)
They're an entire nation and while they might be the laughing stock of the world its bad to underestimate your enemy because they are more than likely perfectly capable to do a massive preemptive strike regardless of how ruthless retaliation would be.
"We're gonna do it for real this time!"
Orbital spaceflight is a late 50's/60's technology. Let's not forget that. Lets also not forget that they have already demonstrated that they can put a satellite into orbit. If you can put a satellite into orbit, an ICBM with a warhead is just a matter of scaling up.
[QUOTE=Shovel Mech;49620136]BREAKING: Leaked footage of NK missile launch!
[video=youtube;iaHOFGeQIN8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaHOFGeQIN8[/video][/QUOTE]
[video]https://youtu.be/2ibmi8CX4p8[/video]
[QUOTE=Toro;49620140]Most likely it will land in the Pacific* Ocean somewhere, but not without going over Japan as a "warning" or some shit.[/QUOTE]
Are you kidding? The ballistic missile defense shield would shoot it down before it crossed the Sea of Japan. No way would Japan allow a foreign missile of any kind to get anywhere near its border.
[QUOTE=Trixil;49620368]99% sure this will be said again next time nk tries to launch a missile and it ends up being nothing just like this one will[/QUOTE]At first I was going to say "haven't you been paying attention" but then I noticed your join date is June 2015 so no, likely you haven't been around for all the threads where I've assuaged people's fears about North Korea starting WWIII or something.
THIS TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :speedfap::speedfap::speedfap:
Wonder if their next missile launch would be something like this. [video]https://youtube.com/watch?v=K-SmfybCbsY[/video]
[QUOTE=Da Bomb76;49620807]This will be interesting considering their previous satellite launch a few years ago. They may be on their way to developing an ICBM.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=OvB;49620916]Orbital spaceflight is a late 50's/60's technology. Let's not forget that. Lets also not forget that they have already demonstrated that they can put a satellite into orbit. If you can put a satellite into orbit, an ICBM with a warhead is just a matter of scaling up.[/QUOTE]
I've got an extended family member who used to work with the National Reconnaissance Office; he mentioned (in a manner that wouldn't leak anything secret and whatnot) that the NRO had some good "close" images of it in LEO, showing solar array failures and other glaring problems.
However, I have no doubt that NK's missile program is a serious threat- think about it: any military strategist in their right mind wouldn't openly test or display their best technology (missiles, weapons, etc.) until it had fully matured. That's why I personally always expect the worst when I hear about a launch like this- rogue nations are unpredictable, but aren't always stupid.
EDIT: And no, I'm not panicking about NK actually bringing serious harm to SK or Japan, but instead worrying about the loss of lives involved if another land war in Korea started due a deterioration in relations there.
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;49620156]North Korea has been posturing for so damn long that at this point a legitimate attack would surprise the living hell of me. Brilliant strategy tbh. Bark loud and long and snap at the air until nobody takes you seriously anymore, then you'll have the advantage on the first strike.[/QUOTE]
I don't think the actual military doesn't takes NK seriously, though.
Crap tech or not, they still got a massive army literally at the doorsteps of Seoul.
[QUOTE=RichyZ;49621677]some sk army poster on here said that they do training drills w/ us soldiers as well simulating an attack on seoul among other things[/QUOTE]
Yeah, to the internet, NK might be a joke, but NK threatening to nuke countries and kill millions is not a joke to the militaries of the countries that would be effected (aka: most countries that have strong economic ties with the US / SK / Japan).
people don't like to say the fact that if NK actually has active warheads, they can pretty much flatten Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing, and several other massive cities without warning, thats not something to joke about, and even if the US instantly wiped NK off the map after doing so, NK still would've killed 1,000,000+ people if they hit good places.
Its scary man, and I hope NK can be dealt with before they cause that much damage.
[QUOTE=T553412;49621673]I don't think the actual military doesn't takes NK seriously, though.
Crap tech or not, they still got a massive army literally at the doorsteps of Seoul.[/QUOTE]
The question for the modern age, is sheer numbers of mildly equipped, poorly supported troops more effective than a smaller number of very well trained very well equipped and supported troups? China has the same dilema, they have a huge army on paper but nowhere near the capacity of any of their neighbors to project that power, that's why they have to build airstrips in the middle of the south china sea, simply to get aircraft and subs in range
Today with the crazy advancements in guided missiles and drones and interconnectivity, the troops in south Korea won't even have to wait for support to come, it will be on the way the instant north Korea tries anything
I don't know, I've stopped considering North Korea a joke ever since the Charlie Hebdo shootings.
"What the fuck" you might ask, and I know that it sounds really weird, but let's boil it down.
The Islamic State is a pseudo-functioning state that does not have access to nuclear weapons, long range missiles, attack aircraft, helicopters or reliable semi-modernized armor. Yet they were able to commit a multitude of vicious attacks on countries far away from their borders, hitting a city like Paris which is not only landlocked but nearly 4000 kilometers away.
Now, North Korea does have access to all of the above mentioned things. Their threats may not be as hardball as the former, as the Islamic State relies entirely on radicalism and fundamentalism to fuel their fighting forces, whilst North Korea relies on forced conscription. But we need to sit down and recognize that it doesn't take a nuclear weapon striking even Seoul or another major city. Were a nuclear weapon simply detonated at a major RoK/Japanese military concentration, we'd be caught completely with our pants down.
And a population brainwashed for more than 3 generations that they must lay their lives on the line for the state or their families will be punished for their impudence will not be willing to immediately give up if leaflets are dropped rather than bombs. A war with North Korea would be horrendous, costly, and could quite easily kill hundreds of thousands if not a couple million innocents that would be undoubtedly caught in the crossfire. The war would have a cascade effect on the economies of North and South East Asia as refugees flee the two Koreas in massed droves, causing a crisis that would make Europe look like a slightly crowded bus.
I take the North Koreans at face value: A tinpot, despotic dictatorship and a failing state that demands it be kept on the television screen and blasted over the radios. But it's a tinpot, despotic dictatorship that scares me.
are they capable of making a nuke the size of the tsar bomb untested?
[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49620123]For some reason I have a bad feeling about this one. I can't put my finger on it exactly.
Just a feeling though.[/QUOTE]
they aren't talking about it
[QUOTE=ridinmybike;49622371]are they capable of making a nuke the size of the tsar bomb untested?[/QUOTE]
No, where they are right now, a bomb even 1/10th of the power of the tsar bomba is pretty far fetched, and idunno what you mean by untested, but they'd never fire a bomb like that without testing a duplicate (which would be pretty counterproductive if you want to keep it under wraps, considering the cloud would probably be visible everywhere from Beijing to Tokyo)
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;49622117]
I take the North Koreans at face value: A tinpot, despotic dictatorship and a failing state that demands it be kept on the television screen and blasted over the radios. But it's a tinpot, despotic dictatorship that scares me.[/QUOTE]
no, the tinpot despotic dictatorships fit inside the framework of nations that exists today, groups like ISIS and AQ are scary because they don't report to anyone, they don't have anything to defend, they don't have anything to loose. NK sets off a nuke, their tinpot dictatorship is reduced to rubble immediatly, AQ sets off a nuke, who do we go after? especially if the people responsible did it as a suicide bomb, international terrorist groups don't have cities to target, they don't have concrete military structures to take down, they don't have solid geographical locations to send people to fight against.
You also have to consider the fact that Kim Jong-Un and his elite are rich and well taken care of in North Korea. If they want something, they can easily acquire it regardless of sanctions. The Kim family is notoriously well known for their foreign assets and hidden funds which is used to keep the dictatorship both in power and comfortable.
In other words, the people in power there want to keep the status quo.
They continue to build their military and their threat capabilities to ensure that no other nation is willing to go so far as to put an end to their regime, like they did to Hussein and Gaddafi. Only if the world is tumbling down around them will they actually resort to drastic measures.
Any time border skirmishes occur with South Korea, tensions raise. If North Korea provokes, it is to ensure the world doesn't get complacent and believe they can defeat North Korea easily. Because they are the hermit kingdom, they need to constantly remind everyone of their power, since otherwise it won't get reported on.
They aren't going to do shit. Be worried when someone else says it's time to solve the NK problem, then the bark will become fangs.
As I understand it, North Korea actually built Iran's missiles, which analysts believe can hit the US, meaning the Norks likely have missiles that can reach the US as well.
Source: [url]https://youtu.be/SyjHz5ngeTU?[/url]
It raises the question who they'd shoot at if they had the chance.
Every major target would eradicate their entire army within hours, and even if they aim for smaller (South Korea) targets then the rest of the world would shut them down.
The USN/JMSDF has Aegis in the South China Sea, right? Considering this is following a hydrogen bomb test, I'd be inclined to say shoot that shit down if it goes anywhere near Japan.
If they shoot a missile, could it be intercepted in time?
[QUOTE=DEMONSKUL;49624340]If they shoot a missile, could it be intercepted in time?[/QUOTE]
I'm sure that now they're aware of a possible launch then they've upped the look-out, if it's going long ranged like cross-atlantic then likely it can be stopped, but if it's just across the border then probably not.
I'm not too worried about North Korea attacking anyone. They act threatening because it's all the power they got. They know they can't win against us. Nuclear missiles are, in their mind, their only deterrent. It puts them on equal playing field. They've operated for decades thinking the US and Japan are evil empires that want to destroy them. They're not going to nuke Seoul because they would prefer to "unify" (as in, North Korea owning the whole peninsula under the dynasty) with them. They're not going to nuke Japan or the US because they know they'll get wiped off the earth. They're not going to nuke China because that's the only friend they have.
[editline]28th January 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=PelPix123;49625766]You know what I'm scared of? Their incompetence.
What if they [I]try[/I] to shoot it into the ocean, but they can't make a competent guidance system, so it ends up accidentally hitting a country in the area?[/QUOTE]
That would be a pretty monumental error. You would have to be hundreds of miles off course.
[editline]28th January 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=Tools;49625333]I'm sure that now they're aware of a possible launch then they've upped the look-out, if it's going long ranged like cross-atlantic then likely it can be stopped, but if it's just across the border then probably not.[/QUOTE]
It would probably be easier to stop a shorter range missile because the velocity and altitude of a long range missile is much more challenging to intercept. Though we've shot down satellites before so I imagine if they did lob an ICBM in our direction we could knock it out with the Navy.
I'm opening myself up to be put on blast but NK has been spouting this nonsense for years ontop of years ontop of years.
When is the rest of the world going to just get sick of it and do [i]something[/i] about it?
It's like your neighbor lowering their window and screaming "I'M GOING TO SHOOT YOU TOMORROW" every other night and nothing being done at all.
Where's Snake when we need him
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/bUQrYjP.png[/IMG]
[highlight](User was banned for this post ("Image Macro" - OvB))[/highlight]
[QUOTE=Toro;49622711]No, where they are right now, a bomb even 1/10th of the power of the tsar bomba is pretty far fetched, and idunno what you mean by untested, but they'd never fire a bomb like that without testing a duplicate (which would be pretty counterproductive if you want to keep it under wraps, considering the cloud would probably be visible everywhere from Beijing to Tokyo)[/QUOTE]
to clarify, i mean are they able to make the nuke without testing it? why aren't they capable? They can make nukes we know that, but what is stopping them from making a massive nuke?
[QUOTE=DEMONSKUL;49624340]If they shoot a missile, could it be intercepted in time?[/QUOTE]Yes, absolutely. A lot of people seem to think there's like one or two opportunities and then it's gone but you have to remember an ICBM/SRBM or SLBM flies up in big arcs, they're largely ballistic weapons which means their flight path is predictable. What gets tricky is when the really large ones fly high enough to be out of the reach of most 80's-era interceptor platforms (like the MIM-104 Patriot) and when the warhead is in the terminal stage. When we're talking nuclear weapons one of the advancements was the development of MIRV payloads that are a collection of smaller warheads rather than one larger one, but I doubt North Korea has this capability. What they do likely have is the ability to fit decoys on their missiles which function much in the same way from an interception standpoint, even if they can fit one or two that's still one or two targets that may or may not be armed nuclear ordinance.
North Korea tends to make it pretty well-known they intend to launch so the moment one is being fueled and prepped without any prior notice or posturing is when it's time to be truly alarmed. My personal concern is they might try to do something stupid like test the warhead capabilities of these rockets in international waters or, holy fuck, actually do an actual nuclear warhead test. I don't think they're at that point but you can never know for sure.
[editline]28th January 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=ridinmybike;49628558]to clarify, i mean are they able to make the nuke without testing it? why aren't they capable? They can make nukes we know that, but what is stopping them from making a massive nuke?[/QUOTE]Nuclear weapons aren't like conventional explosives. You can't just pack in more shit and make a bigger boom, you have to carefully engineer them if there's going to be a successful detonation. Aside from that if you have enough data gathered from multiple tests (like the US, France, and the USSR have done) then it's fairly easy to extrapolate on that and design a warhead without actually testing it. They're not there yet but with their most recent test they've shown a capability of a thermonuclear device which is the big boy league of nuclear weapons.
Really though they're probably barely capable of producing implosion-type warheads with any degree of competency. Gun-type warheads are actually simple, in theory anyone could build one because they're literally just smashing two chunks of fissile material together hard enough to cause nuclear fission to occur. These are very inefficient and to date I think the US has only developed and used one, and that was Little Boy back in 1945. (I may be mistaken though)
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