March 26 Democratic caucuses — Does Bernie Sanders Still Have a Chance at a Last-Minute Comeback? - Polidicks

[QUOTE=Raidyr;50016257]The majority of Democrats I've talked to support Clinton because they agree with her policies and don't care that much about the email scandal or campaign financing. [editline]27th March 2016[/editline] I haven't heard much outright negative about Sanders, people just don't really seem to know where he stands, or just see him as a less electable Clinton.[/QUOTE] Pretty much. At my caucus all of the Clinton supporters went "I love Bernie and I'd support him in the primaries, but we did the same thing in 1972 with George McGovern and lost" which isn't a bad point. It's a little naive to say they're just uneducated about politics, but that's off-topic so w/e.

[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;50015448]Note: I do think Clinton will take NY slightly, that's expected but margin-wise WILL be close. I expect the Occupy Wallstreet crowd to come back.[/QUOTE] Even that is a pretty bold prediction. I certainly [I]hope[/I] Sanders can triumph in New York, seeing as how important a state it is, but the numbers show him getting buried, and you can only pull so many historic upsets out of your pocket. NY is Clinton's home turf and she has massive support. It is most likely a write-off, and one that will hurt pretty bad.

[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;50016326]Even that is a pretty bold prediction. I certainly [I]hope[/I] Sanders can triumph in New York, seeing as how important a state it is, but the numbers show him getting buried, and you can only pull so many historic upsets out of your pocket. NY is Clinton's home turf and she has massive support. It is most likely a write-off, and one that will hurt pretty bad.[/QUOTE] It wouldn't surprise me if NY is completely rigged in her favor because, Wall Street etc.

[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;50016326]Even that is a pretty bold prediction. I certainly [I]hope[/I] Sanders can triumph in New York, seeing as how important a state it is, but the numbers show him getting buried, and you can only pull so many historic upsets out of your pocket. NY is Clinton's home turf and she has massive support. It is most likely a write-off, and one that will hurt pretty bad.[/QUOTE] Just like Arizona, the 1% reporting "crushing defeat"?

[QUOTE=Melnek;50015440]goddamn how long does it take to elect a president every election its the same shit with months of caucuses and delegates and whatever the fuck else why cant you just decide on a specific day or week to hold national elections and just get it over with that same week instead of drawing it on and on with predictions and predictions of the predictions and auhguhsdfnsd fuck just count the damn votes and the one with the most votes wins its not that hard[/QUOTE] It's to help get to know the candidates. In fact, this long process has done nothing but [I]benefit[/I] Bernie Sanders with growing his name recognition each and every day.

If there was just a flat election without a caucusing process Bernie would get like 2% of the vote lol

I don't think Bernie could win NY, simply because it's Clintons home turf and the people there seem to be in love with her (if browsing through humans of NY says anything) A Sanders win would be the gun that shoots Clintons campaign point blank in the head, it's possible but he needs to do a lot more

[QUOTE=fruxodaily;50017720]I don't think Bernie could win NY, simply because it's Clintons home turf and the people there seem to be in love with her (if browsing through humans of NY says anything) A Sanders win would be the gun that shoots Clintons campaign point blank in the head, it's possible but he needs to do a lot more[/QUOTE] iirc he's working a lot on campaigning there as it's such a high stakes competition, hopefully he can ride the wave of recent momentum into a few more states building into a good NY showing

New York I see it being close but going to Clinton overall (around 45 Sanders-55 Clinton)

[QUOTE=adamsz;50016790]It wouldn't surprise me if NY is completely rigged in her favor because, Wall Street etc.[/QUOTE] Everything that Bernie loses is rigged

[QUOTE=InvaderNouga;50017942]Everything that Bernie loses is rigged[/QUOTE] I think the only time anyone has said this yet is Arizona, where a ton of people weren't able to vote. You can say that it affected Hillary as well, but Hillary already has a massive lead in delegates, and benefits statistically much more than Bernie sanders from people who use absentee ballots. It's not that far fetched when you think about how the DNC refused to do any additional debates before NH until after Bernie did better than they expected, or not as far fetched when you think about how no matter how well Bernie does in a state, whether he wins 80% or not, the superdelegates in that state endorse Hillary and the news reports them indistinguishable from pledged delegates.

I also live upstate in Sullivan county (unfortunately) and I haven't really seen anything other than Bernie's stuff. Which is odd considering I live in a pretty conservative area. Here's to hoping NY goes Bernie!!

[QUOTE=Xanadu;50016091]Almost nothing but Bernie stickers and signs here in Monroe. But like you said, mostly because this is a college haven. All the surrounding spots between here and Buffalo or Syracuse are pretty much Trump territory, haven't seen much support for Clinton though.[/QUOTE] Yeah, as someone here in Upstate NY, nearly everyone I know is a Bernie or Trump supporter. Maybe met one or two Hilliary supporters and no Cruz ones.

How often are you guys having meetups with the local bingo club though? Bernie dominates the youth vote pretty much everywhere.

New York is Clinton's home state, but it's also right next to Bernie's home state. I think it's up in the air at this point.

[QUOTE=jalb;50018347]How often are you guys having meetups with the local bingo club though? Bernie dominates the youth vote pretty much everywhere.[/QUOTE] Yeah one thing the Sanders campaign needs to do is heavily saturate the state in ads, (radio and TV), and with mailers if they wanna appeal to older individuals. [editline]27th March 2016[/editline] Like hell, my grandparents are almost always watching TV

[QUOTE=Duck M.;50017487]If there was just a flat election without a caucusing process Bernie would get like 2% of the vote lol[/QUOTE] With the current system in place for the general election, this is likely true. With an election system where electability is irrelevant, I think Sanders would have won by a landslide.

[QUOTE=TurtleeyFP;50016312]Pretty much. At my caucus all of the Clinton supporters went "I love Bernie and I'd support him in the primaries, but we did the same thing in 1972 with George McGovern and lost" which isn't a bad point. It's a little naive to say they're just uneducated about politics, but that's off-topic so w/e.[/QUOTE] [del]I never understood that logic anyway. If you support Bernie and are okay with Hillary, then vote for Bernie. Worst case scenario, you vote for Hillary in the Presidential Election, which they are planning to do anyway. Seems some people aren't thinking about it, or have misconceptions about how the nomination works.[/del]

[QUOTE=Mr. Someguy;50019681]I never understood that logic anyway. If you support Bernie and are okay with Hillary, then vote for Bernie. Worst case scenario, you vote for Hillary in the Presidential Election, which they are planning to do anyway. Seems some people aren't thinking about it, or have misconceptions about how the nomination works.[/QUOTE] They're saying they are liberal, and agree with bernie, but think he'll get crushed by Trump or cruz like mcgovern got crushed by Nixon.

[QUOTE=Mr. Someguy;50019681]I never understood that logic anyway. If you support Bernie and are okay with Hillary, then vote for Bernie. Worst case scenario, you vote for Hillary in the Presidential Election, which they are planning to do anyway. Seems some people aren't thinking about it, or have misconceptions about how the nomination works.[/QUOTE] George McGovern got absolutely destroyed in the general election (though his general election campaign had some issues, not quite sure there's a lot of pareles to be drawn). Point being, Hillary is viewed by some as more likely to beat the Republican in the general election.

[QUOTE=Durandal;50019854]They're saying they are liberal, and agree with bernie, but think he'll get crushed by Trump or cruz like mcgovern got crushed by Nixon.[/QUOTE] Went over my head, I see what they mean now. Although I don't have confidence that Hillary can beat Trump any better than Sanders could.

[QUOTE=Mr. Someguy;50021774]Went over my head, I see what they mean now. Although I don't have confidence that Hillary can beat Trump any better than Sanders could.[/QUOTE] Bernie Vs Trump would be the most exciting election for half our lifetime. Could you even have any more distinctly opposite candidates?

i think bernie is going to get run over in NY and then slowly and agonizingly lose the nomination i really want him to win, but i legit think it's going to happen

[QUOTE=Cloak Raider;50022015]i think bernie is going to get run over in NY and then slowly and agonizingly lose the nomination i really want him to win, but i legit think it's going to happen[/QUOTE] Thank god speculation and unfounded opinions don't become fact because they get believed in... He'd have withdrawn from the race with Lincoln Chafee if that was the case. He just came out of a 3-state sweep above his projected margin, going into more favorable states.

[QUOTE=InvaderNouga;50017942]Everything that Bernie loses is rigged[/QUOTE] Arizona was rigged though. However, I'm pretty sure Arizona was rigged by Arizona, they were just trying to suppress every possible liberal from voting. However much you believe Clinton to be using some dishonest tactics, Clinton isn't the kind of person to convince an entire state's democratic party to fuck with polling like that. That's a bit [i]too[/i] complex, it's out of character.

538's Harry Enten reckons we can attribute much of Sanders' success to his supporters being more enthusiastic and willing to show up to caucuses, and warns that he might be fucked now as there are only two caucuses left and the rest are primaries [url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/[/url]

[QUOTE=smurfy;50022518]538's Harry Enten reckons we can attribute much of Sanders' success to his supporters being more enthusiastic and willing to show up to caucuses, and warns that he might be fucked now as there are only two caucuses left and the rest are primaries [url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/[/url][/QUOTE] Why do caucus voters not scale up to primary voters?

So essentially, less people in total support Sanders, but the ones who do are much more enthusiastic than Clinton supporters. That makes sense in my mind, it's hard to get all that excited for basically 'stability and the status quo', even if more people ultimately vote for that.

[QUOTE=EcksDee;50025411]Why do caucus voters not scale up to primary voters?[/QUOTE] Maybe Clinton voters don't feel that enthusiastic about their candidate, and when they're challenged on their choice they may realize that they're just voting for her "because". You aren't challenged about your choice when you're alone in the voting booth, and it's easier to just plop down "Clinton". But really idk, lets see how it goes.

[QUOTE=CatFodder;50025670]So essentially, less people in total support Sanders, but the ones who do are much more enthusiastic than Clinton supporters. That makes sense in my mind, it's hard to get all that excited for basically 'stability and the status quo', even if more people ultimately vote for that.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=GoDong-DK;50025718]Maybe Clinton voters don't feel that enthusiastic about their candidate, and when they're challenged on their choice they may realize that they're just voting for her "because". You aren't challenged about your choice when you're alone in the voting booth, and it's easier to just plop down "Clinton". But really idk, lets see how it goes.[/QUOTE] Recent Gallup poll showed that Clinton supporters are more enthusiastic though. I haven't looked over the methodology so I don't know if this applies 100%, so take it with some salt. [URL]http://www.gallup.com/poll/190343/trump-clinton-supporters-lead-enthusiasm.aspx[/URL]