March 26 Democratic caucuses — Does Bernie Sanders Still Have a Chance at a Last-Minute Comeback? - Polidicks

[QUOTE=Sega Saturn;50014232]Oh baby, a triple! I love that Bernie's campaign just won't die. No matter how far ahead Hillary's campaign is, nights like these must be making her tear her hair out.[/QUOTE] I hope so. I'd love for her to have to switch to a Trump wig.

[QUOTE=/r/sandersforpresident]Of course this win was completely expected due to Hawaii, Washington and Alaska being states with white populations that border Vermont.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Vigilante2470;50014228]My primary concern at this point is New York... most recent polls didn't look good at all, and New York is the serious make or break for Bernie. He loses that, and it really IS over.[/QUOTE] He's going to lose it, Hilary was the Senator from that State before she started running against Obama. She has all the influence needed to control all the delegates for New York. We can only hope he will get landslide victories in CA and PA.

The amount of fucking times people say "This is make or break". Shut the fuck up it's not over till it's over at the convention in July. You want the guy in office? Just VOTE FOR HIM.

[QUOTE=Vigilante2470;50014228]My primary concern at this point is New York... most recent polls didn't look good at all, and New York is the serious make or break for Bernie. He loses that, and it really IS over.[/QUOTE] There's basically no recent polling data (I can find a grand total of 3 polls that occurred after Ohio). That said, what polls there are aren't great, especially the most recent one. On the other hand, the most recent one (+48 Clinton) seems really out of place when Chinton is polling higher than she was a year ago when no one even knew who Sanders was and the only other remotely recent polls (3 of them) had Clinton at +21. So yea, I'm really not putting too much stake in the NY polling.

Bernie wins by like 70% to 30% in every state but Hillary still matches up with delegates. Nice job democracy.

[QUOTE=Chernobyl426;50014367]Bernie wins by like 70% to 30% in every state but Hillary still matches up with delegates. Nice job democracy.[/QUOTE] That's because she has superdelegates from those states. Without the superdelegates he absolutely trounced her.

[QUOTE=Vigilante2470;50014228]My primary concern at this point is New York... most recent polls didn't look good at all, and New York is the serious make or break for Bernie. He loses that, and it really IS over.[/QUOTE] Polls haven't been the harbingers of truth in this election. Models are more accurate, and the models are favorable as things currently stands. Looking forward to seeing how these wins affect his campaign.

Why does it show that sanders only won 25 delegates from Washington?

[QUOTE=joshuadim;50014618]Why does it show that sanders only won 25 delegates from Washington?[/QUOTE] This is aggravating me. I want to see the updated delegate totals.

I'm not an American, so maybe I don't get it, but this whole thing with the super delegates is confusing I think the whole american political process is confusing to be honest

[QUOTE=Trebgarta;50014889]Watch CGP Greys videos on American politics, clears most of the national stuff up. He is slightly opioniated, but it is hard not to be when the system is so shitty. He tries his best to be objective, and texplains other political systems in "Animal Kingdom" videos. TL;DW: superdelegates are a bunch of useless prominent party members whose job is to "represent party's interests" but theyre doing a shit job at it because they have never ruled against popular vote[/QUOTE] Sounds pretty undemocratic to me, I thought the electorate is supposed to pick party leaders?

[QUOTE=Trebgarta;50014889] TL;DW: superdelegates are a bunch of useless prominent party members whose job is to "represent party's interests" but theyre doing a shit job at it because they have never ruled against popular vote[/QUOTE] I really don't understand what the point of having them is if they're going to follow the public vote anyway

[QUOTE=Cyberdan;50015071]I really don't understand what the point of having them is if they're going to follow the public vote anyway[/QUOTE] Because the entire point is to have the appearance of the people having a voice while suppressing that voice (through the media and superdelegates). Superdelegates makes it easier to give the impression that Hillary (or whomever the chosen one is) has a much larger lead even before the voting by the public starts.

[QUOTE=DaMastez;50015125]Because the entire point is to have the appearance of the people having a voice while suppressing that voice (through the media and superdelegates). Superdelegates makes it easier to give the impression that Hillary (or whomever the chosen one is) has a much larger lead even before the voting by the public starts.[/QUOTE] I find it funny that the Democratic party has such a system but the Republicans don't.

Bernie will take home well over 70 delegates in Washington. If you want up to date delegate counts, use [url=http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WA-D]the Green Papers[/url] He went way over target in all three states yesterday. Very good performance, which allows him to offset the poorer performances in Ohio and Florida. In the end, he will receive a net delegate count of ~60-70 delegates. Wisconsin looks favorable, I think he could go over target there. I'm worried about NY, mostly. Closed primary, home of Wall Street, Hillary's senate seat, and a huge effort required to GOTV in NYC.

How liberal is NY?

This is a pretty good Easter present I'll say. [QUOTE=ROFLBURGER;50014237]It's not over until it's over. - Yogi Bear[/QUOTE] You mean "Yogi Berra" right? [editline]27th March 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;50015218]How liberal is NY?[/QUOTE] Very Liberal

Watch out Bernie, the billionaires on Wall Street will attempt to disrupt your rally in New York.

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;50015218]How liberal is NY?[/QUOTE] A little but more than moderately, Imo. I'm biased though, since I'm living in a conservative county.

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;50015218]How liberal is NY?[/QUOTE] They are liberal— but also the [B]#1 home for capitalism in the entire world[/B]. It also goes without saying Wall Street lives there. [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/fbKOCg8.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/JOVsJld.png[/IMG]

[QUOTE=Starpluck;50015272]They are liberal— but also the [B]#1 home for capitalism in the entire world[/B]. It also goes without saying Wall Street lives there. [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/JOVsJld.png[/IMG][/QUOTE] I wonder what the margin of error for this poll is, considering the methodology. Cause DIS EXPLAINS THE RESULTS LOL. [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/AnU94ZZ.png[/IMG] I mean look at how little this reflects the actual age groups in the US [img]http://i.imgur.com/Ch65brR.png[/img]

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;50015218]How liberal is NY?[/QUOTE] Upstate NY is a fair bit more conservative than the rest of the state. I live upstate, and I'd say we're fairly similar to New Hampshire or Vermont conservatives: mostly libertarian, maybe even Rockefeller Republicans, not deep social conservatism. There are some counties where he could do very well: Erie County (mostly white, fairly liberal county) Monroe County (big college area) Onondaga County (syracuse university) Tompkins County (cornell, ithaca college) Albany County (mostly white, albany colleges) And probably some more, but those are the big ones off the top of my head. The tough part is keeping NYC close, which is demographically all over the place, and has a [B]HUGE[/B] number of people to GOTV.

[QUOTE=EcksDee;50015299]I wonder what the margin of error for this poll is, considering the methodology. Cause DIS EXPLAINS THE RESULTS LOL. [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/AnU94ZZ.png[/IMG] I mean look at how little this reflects the actual age groups in the US [img]http://i.imgur.com/Ch65brR.png[/img][/QUOTE] Does it reflect the voting population, though, that's way more important.

Does he need to win NY or just not lose terribly?

If NY were open primary, upstate NY would bring Sanders much closer. I imagine there's a lot of independents or libertarians who would be willing to vote Sanders. [editline]27th March 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=DJ999;50015339]Does he need to win NY or just not lose terribly?[/QUOTE] For him to have a good chance going forward, yes he should win. Ultimately, I think Clinton will probably be more effective in getting the vote out in the huge urban areas. I think his best hope is to get it as close as possible. A solid win for Sanders would actually put him right on track for the nomination, although I don't think that will happen.

[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;50015338]Does it reflect the voting population, though, that's way more important.[/QUOTE] Looking at Sanders' current stats from his victories, I'm not so sure it does. His wins are punctuated by MASSIVE turnout by the under-35 crowd.

Voter registration is also over in NY. Hopefully, his campaign was able to get as many Independents as possible to register. The only thing left to do is convince undecideds. The current polling margins in NY are atrocious. If he lost NY by 20%+, it would be devastating. After yesterdays wins, and the wins in Utah and Idaho (and Abroad), NY is going to be his last chance to get "back on track". If he loses there big time, there might not be enough delegates mathematically to make up the difference. He has a lot of time between now and then (with favorable Wisconsin in between) so they might just pull it off. The campaign has made NY the ultimate priority, for calls and volunteers, even though Wisconsin and Wyoming are in-between. That should tell you how important this is.

I hope everyone who walked during that Occupy thing comes out in full force for NYC

Was Clinton not the senator for New York? NY is her state then and that almost guarantees she will win NY. Sanders just has to not lose in a landslide and he will be okay. If Sanders was to beat Clinton in NY then it would be game over for her.