[QUOTE=pentium;51514081]If you are going to cherry pick then so will I.
Nobody predicted him to win by any margin.[/QUOTE]
Really?
What do you people think 538 meant when they gave him a 15% chance? It wasn't "He has a 15% chance to win the election so therefore, he won't win".
[QUOTE=ph:lxyz;51513644]All newly-elected presidents backtrack on things once they have secret service breathing down their neck.
Obama before getting into office: "We're going to end the war..."
After getting into office "... after things have cooled down a little, of course."[/QUOTE]
Delaying a promise before accomplishing it later is a far cry from dropping it immediately and saying literally "we don't care"
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;51514087]Really?
What do you people think 538 meant when they gave him a 15% chance? It wasn't "He has a 15% chance to win the election so therefore, he won't win".[/QUOTE]
No, that was exactly what it said. If you have a 15% chance in an election you're basically watching the electee piss into the wind.
Also for the entire election I couldn't care who the fuck said what the odd were. You can probably quote me on that too because I said that before the election as well.
The numbers are all fucking speculative until the ballots start being counted. You can get so fucking jaded if you watch them constantly and try to make assumptions and it always ends with people throwing a fit after because assumptions were wrong.
[QUOTE=pentium;51514105]No, that was exactly what it said. If you have a 15% chance in an election you're basically watching the electee piss into the wind.[/QUOTE]
Not really
I don't know why that would be the case
a 15% chance for something to happen is an 85% chance for it not happen. Does that mean it can't/won't or is so statistically impossible it's "pissing in the wind"? Fuck no it isn't.
That's part of why Trump got elected. People see 85% chance and they think of the odds but they're ignorant of what the odds actually are in that situation. A 15% chance for something to happen isn't a low odd. A 1% or something below that is. A 15% chance is still a decent chance it'll happen.
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;51514116]
a 15% chance for something to happen is an 85% chance for it not happen. Does that mean it can't/won't or is so statistically impossible it's "pissing in the wind"? Fuck no it isn't.
That's part of why Trump got elected. People see 85% chance and they think of the odds but they're ignorant of what the odds actually are in that situation. A 15% chance for something to happen isn't a low odd. A 1% or something below that is. A 15% chance is still a decent chance it'll happen.[/QUOTE]
Your doctor tells you that you have cancer. You have a 15% chance of surviving.
Unless you are optimistic as FUCK you're gonna look at that as your cue to pull out the bucket list.
[QUOTE=pentium;51514132]Your doctor tells you that you have cancer. You have a 15% chance of surviving.
Unless you are optimistic as FUCK you're gonna look at that as your cue to pull out the bucket list.[/QUOTE]
If I was told that I had a 15% chance of having cancer you'd better believe I'd get shit checked out and verified.
[QUOTE=pentium;51514132]Your doctor tells you that you have cancer. You have a 15% chance of surviving.
Unless you are optimistic as FUCK you're gonna look at that as your cue to pull out the bucket list.[/QUOTE]
I'm really not going to bother trying to explain to you why or how a 15% chance isn't actually a little chance, when the only thing you're basing that judgement on is an emotional preconcieved notion, that you'd view 15% chance as a non existant chance.
I wouldn't. So how does your mindset work if it's not universal? Some people have a better understanding of odds than others, and a 15% chance is a 1/6.66 chance of something happening. Is that honestly enough for you to say you'd hang up your hat and die at that point because you only have a 1/7 chance of living?
I don't really care to discuss an issue that you're not going to use anything but emotions to discuss
it depends on if you see a cup half empty or half full
[QUOTE=pentium;51514105]No, that was exactly what it said. If you have a 15% chance in an election you're basically watching the electee piss into the wind.
Also for the entire election I couldn't care who the fuck said what the odd were. You can probably quote me on that too because I said that before the election as well.
The numbers are all fucking speculative until the ballots start being counted. You can get so fucking jaded if you watch them constantly and try to make assumptions and it always ends with people throwing a fit after because assumptions were wrong.[/QUOTE]
Nate Silver explicitly wrote an article about 15% not being nothing
[QUOTE][URL="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-the-presidential-race-tightening/"]So then: Democrats have nothing to worry about, right? Nope, we wouldn’t say that, either. The race could easily tighten further. And our forecast gives Trump better odds than most other models because it accounts for the possibility of a systemic polling error, a greater risk than people may assume. A 16 percent chance of a Trump presidency isn’t nothing — as we’ve pointed out before, it’s about the same as the chances of losing a “game” of Russian roulette. And 15 percent is about the same chance we gave the San Antonio Spurs of beating the Golden State Warriors last night — the Spurs won by 29 points.[/URL][/QUOTE]
and when that article was posted on facepunch the thread was literally called "Trump might win with only 15% chance, 538 warns"
Besides, 538's final odds for Trump were like 30%, which isn't unlikely at all. It pisses me off when people who don't understand odds say that they got it wrong, not only did they give him a good chance of winning but they explicitly brought up an electoral college/popular vote split as being a distinct possibility.
The only people still left defending Trump are those who have nothing but malice to inflict upon their fellow man.
We all lose.
[QUOTE=pentium;51514081]If you are going to cherry pick then so will I.
Nobody predicted him to win by any margin.
[editline]asdas[/editline]
You can. Just don't use low hanging fruit that either side would of used as ammunition anyways and as mentioned the press have been using like it's real journalism.[/QUOTE]
Trump's cabinet picks, policy proposals, refusal to attend intelligence briefings, and immediate and unabashed reversals on major campaign promises aren't "low hanging fruit."
This is a classic taken out of context, straw grabbing headline. He wasn't talking about "lock her up" at all.
Do you people even try? Do you think believing that he said this would make you better informed than the people that actually watched the speech and know what he actually said?
[QUOTE=Stick it in her pooper;51515133]This is a classic taken out of context, straw grabbing headline. He wasn't talking about "lock her up" at all.
Do you people even try? Do you think believing that he said this would make you better informed than the people that actually watched the speech and know what he actually said?[/QUOTE]
It seems pretty in context as far as I can tell. Mind explaining [B]how[/B] this is being misrepresented?
[Quote] Donald Trump said Friday he doesn't care about prosecuting Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, after attendees at his rally chanted "lock her up."
After the chants started at the President-elect's post-election "thank you" rally in Michigan, he responded, "That plays great before the election -- now we don't care, right?"[/quote]
[QUOTE=Skanic;51512501]The funny thing though is when there is a Trump supporter coming on to a thread and defends Donald Trump.
That everyone starts attacking them/ grouping up on them.
Trump is not even in Office yet so how should he be able to "drain the swamp" or do most of the thing s he promised.
[/QUOTE]
His cabinet lineup is already going against what he said he was going to remove from office. That's how he's somehow failing his campaign promises before he's even in office.
actually hilary is a double agent, and trump was elected by Russia and Clinton Foundation continues to live and DoJ are run by lizards
He doesn't get to decide who gets prosecuted.
Dumbass.
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;51514116]Not really
I don't know why that would be the case
a 15% chance for something to happen is an 85% chance for it not happen. Does that mean it can't/won't or is so statistically impossible it's "pissing in the wind"? Fuck no it isn't.
That's part of why Trump got elected. People see 85% chance and they think of the odds but they're ignorant of what the odds actually are in that situation. A 15% chance for something to happen isn't a low odd. A 1% or something below that is. A 15% chance is still a decent chance it'll happen.[/QUOTE]
I'd like to add that 538's election day prediction was 30% of Trump winning (iirc), not 15%. Of those, 10% was Trump winning the electoral college, but losing the popular vote.
Pretty good predictions in my opinion, slightly better odds for Trump than getting heads twice in a row. Which happens all the time if you've ever done head or tails in your life. Maybe CNN didn't think so, but this Nate "Pyrite" no-kne-could-predict-this sham is getting pretty tiring.
[editline]12th December 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=pentium;51514132]Your doctor tells you that you have cancer. You have a 15% chance of surviving.
Unless you are optimistic as FUCK you're gonna look at that as your cue to pull out the bucket list.[/QUOTE]
That still means 15% of patients survive, your subjective gut feeling has fuckall to do with statistics. And you know that.
We can't even say that WaPo's "99%" chance prediction was wrong (though I'm very certain it was), because we've only run the election one time. Who says we didn't hit the 1%?
[QUOTE=Skanic;51512501]Just like with Obama , he promised a lot as well.
But Trump has already done some things that i haven't seen from Obama.[/QUOTE]
Once the honeymoon period passes, it's extremely unlikely for [I]any[/I] president to get [I]anything[/I] done unless it's executive order.
Trump hasn't even [I]begun[/I] the honeymoon period and already he's like "hm well let's [I]not[/I] do this" and [url=http://fusion.net/story/373390/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump-carrier-jobs/]his campaign manager's saying that everyone took everything Trump said "too literally"[/url]
[IMG]http://www.gnovisjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/hillaryanddonald.png[/IMG]
He's not going to lock up his bff, come on, mean.
[QUOTE=Skanic;51512501][B]Trump is not even in Office yet so how should he be able to "drain the swamp" or do most of the thing s he promised.[/B][/QUOTE]
Not picking career lobbyists and oilmen for his cabinet / department chiefs would be a nice fucking start
Christ almighty dude what planet are you on
[QUOTE=mcharest;51523808]Not picking career lobbyists and oilmen for his cabinet / department chiefs would be a nice fucking start
Christ almighty dude what planet are you on[/QUOTE]
It's the same logic that drove people who despised Clinton because she was a "bought politician" to vote for Trump. Trump promises to rid the government of special interests and lobbyists, gets elected on that message, passes totally worthless lobbying regulations for the executive branch, then appoints people those lobbyists lobby for to government positions. It's ludicrous.
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