EVs could erode as much as 10 percent of global gasoline demand by 2035
58 replies, posted
[QUOTE=TestECull;51470565]Other teslas aren't built with the idea of going off-road in mind, something that is part of the definition of a pickup truck. It isn't a pickup if it can't wheel, and the last thing you need in your fancy schmancy 60-80 thousand dollar electric pickup is a wayward stump or hidden-in-the-tall-grass boulder puncturing the battery pack and leaving you in a VERY bad way. Bad enough if that happens to a gas tank where the biggest issue is gonna be the loss of a few gallons of gas, but you punch a hole in a litium based battery pack and it's quite a bit more likely to start a forest fire.
There also isn't much room to work with RE: Stuffing the batteries in to begin with. Not without negatively effecting bed capacity, ease of loading/unloading, etc. And then you factor in the much higher power draw that a truck...which even in its basest form can be moving upwards of 8500-9000 pounds...will have? I am genuinely curious how Tesla plan on stuffing this thing with enough batteries to make it work [i]and[/i] keep them safe.
Not curious enough to buy one, mind, it's more of a 'hey that's cool engineering' curiosity.[/QUOTE]
I feel like a completely flat bottom on a truck would be a benefit. Nothing hanging down that can get knocked out. Teslas already have decent armoring on the battery park, and a titanium plate that defends a portion of it. The battery pack would be the same as previous Teslas, a flat board. I don't see how that would affect anything to do with the bed.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51470497]Trucks are already prohibitively expensive, let alone a possible Tesla truck.
Even the mid-size trucks that are returning to the US market are a whopping 30k range in price, sometimes higher than the full size equivalents going into the mid 40k range.
Us bottom tier scrubs will probably be lucky to get the latest goods that were already out in 2012 as second or third hand buyers.
I understand using the expensive models to fund cheaper model production, but that can only go so far. Pickups are not as commonplace as cars, so there will be even less of a demographic to buy them and help fund the cheaper models.[/QUOTE]
A 2016 ford f-150 is about 26k, , 2016 GMC canyon is 20k, Same for Chevrolet colorado. The really expensive ones are for the heavy duty/etc.
[QUOTE=SpaceGhost;51470782]A 2016 ford f-150 is about 26k, , 2016 GMC canyon is 20k, Same for Chevrolet colorado. The really expensive ones are for the heavy duty/etc.[/QUOTE]
Depends on what config you get, and its difficult to find a dealer who doesn't sell anything other than XLT crewcab configs. 26k is the base model and the least you can expect from it.
A F150, regular cab with short bed, 4x2 drive, and a V6 will be 26k but no dealer will ever want to sell that.
Turn that 4x2 into a 4x4 and suddenly it shoots up to 31k. Turn it into a supercab and its 34k. Switch it from a V6 to a V8 and its 35.
No one is going to sell a 26k F150, I'm pretty sure the salesman is told to smooth talk you into one of the crewcab configs because they want to sell the most expensive models.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51470849]Depends on what config you get, and its difficult to find a dealer who doesn't sell anything other than XLT crewcab configs. 26k is the base model and the least you can expect from it.
A F150, regular cab with short bed, 4x2 drive, and a V6 will be 26k but no dealer will ever want to sell that.
Turn that 4x2 into a 4x4 and suddenly it shoots up to 31k. Turn it into a supercab and its 34k. Switch it from a V6 to a V8 and its 35.
No one is going to sell a 26k F150, I'm pretty sure the salesman is told to smooth talk you into one of the crewcab configs because they want to sell the most expensive models.[/QUOTE]
Thats why I included GMC and Chevrolet.
[QUOTE=SpaceGhost;51470870]Thats why I included GMC and Chevrolet.[/QUOTE]
Same situation, but price also differs in some zipcodes. For me it starts 21k in my region.
Thing is, my family uses trucks with 4WD. We sometimes go on the beach for surf fishing or use it during bad weather like rain/light snow. Because of that the price shoots up.
I mean, sure, it be great if all I needed from it was the base model but unfortunately that is not the case.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51470849]Depends on what config you get, and its difficult to find a dealer who doesn't sell anything other than XLT crewcab configs. 26k is the base model and the least you can expect from it.
A F150, regular cab with short bed, 4x2 drive, and a V6 will be 26k but no dealer will ever want to sell that.
Turn that 4x2 into a 4x4 and suddenly it shoots up to 31k. Turn it into a supercab and its 34k. Switch it from a V6 to a V8 and its 35.
No one is going to sell a 26k F150, I'm pretty sure the salesman is told to smooth talk you into one of the crewcab configs because they want to sell the most expensive models.[/QUOTE]
I wouldn't consider buying a new truck that wasn't a crew cab + 4x4 to be honest. The 10 year old Silverado I have now is a 4x2 V8. I want more than what I already got if I'm gonna buy new. I'd definitely consider a Tesla truck if I was in the market then. If I could afford a new F-150 Lariat today, I'd buy one.
Tesla could do some deal with the Chinese government to get affordable EVs to the population.
[QUOTE=!LORD M!;51471548]Tesla could do some deal with the Chinese government to get affordable EVs to the population.[/QUOTE]
Why? They make their batteries in the United States. China has no car factories, no battery factories. Teslas constraints come down to production. They're constantly biting off more than they can chew, and battery production volume isn't where it needs to be for cheap EVs. That's it. We need more batteries. Which is why they have the gigafactory. EV's aren't magically expensive, they're expensive because of economics. You build more batteries, and EV's will be cheaper. It's simple. The problem is, building the worlds biggest factory takes awhile.
[QUOTE=OvB;51471729]Why? They make their batteries in the United States. China has no car factories, no battery factories. Teslas constraints come down to production. They're constantly biting off more than they can chew, and battery production volume isn't where it needs to be for cheap EVs. That's it. We need more batteries. Which is why they have the gigafactory. EV's aren't magically expensive, they're expensive because of economics. You build more batteries, and EV's will be cheaper. It's simple. The problem is, building the worlds biggest factory takes awhile.[/QUOTE]
Well they would still be expensive in China. They slap massive taxes on imported cars, and don't give them any EV incentives which makes it hard for Tesla to compete. Musk has talked about building a Chinese factory just for Chinese / Asia demand because of that.
[editline]4th December 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=OvB;51470675]I feel like a completely flat bottom on a truck would be a benefit. Nothing hanging down that can get knocked out. Teslas already have decent armoring on the battery park, and a titanium plate that defends a portion of it. The battery pack would be the same as previous Teslas, a flat board. I don't see how that would affect anything to do with the bed.[/QUOTE]
[video]https://youtu.be/_5OurZx1ihI[/video]
Isn't the majority of electric cars just going to be powered by electricity from coal anyway?
[QUOTE=Morgen;51470069]It's okay if we don't remove it completely, the chemical and medical uses are a relatively small part of what we use oil for. If we can cut most of the other uses for it out then it will be okay to keep using it for those things I think.[/QUOTE]
Well considering how we don't burn plastics or medicine into greenhouse gasses then it's fine to keep consuming oil. The problem is burning the oil derivatives in engines, etc, producing greenhouse gasses.
[QUOTE=Amakir;51473543]Isn't the majority of electric cars just going to be powered by electricity from coal anyway?[/QUOTE]
Depends entirely on where you live. Sweden for example is almost entirely powered by hydro and nuclear, so you would have close to absolute zero emissions.
[QUOTE=OvB;51471211]I wouldn't consider buying a new truck that wasn't a crew cab + 4x4 to be honest. The 10 year old Silverado I have now is a 4x2 V8. I want more than what I already got if I'm gonna buy new. I'd definitely consider a Tesla truck if I was in the market then. If I could afford a new F-150 Lariat today, I'd buy one.[/QUOTE]
I've got a '15 F-150 Lariat FX4 Supercrew with the 3.5L Ecoboost twin turbo V6. You're looking at $50k worth of truck.
[QUOTE=Amakir;51473543]Isn't the majority of electric cars just going to be powered by electricity from coal anyway?[/QUOTE]
In some places, but there's only a finite amount of coal in the earth.
[QUOTE=SpaceGhost;51470782]A 2016 ford f-150 is about 26k, , 2016 GMC canyon is 20k, Same for Chevrolet colorado. The really expensive ones are for the heavy duty/etc.[/QUOTE]
The ones you listed are entry level models, they are always white and they have the most basic of options (nothing much at all).
[t]http://3-photos7.ebizautos.com/new-2016-ford-f~150-2wdregcab1225xl-8545-14593268-1-1024.jpg[/t]
Honestly better to go above the 30k range if you want a good truck.
[QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;51473622]I've got a '15 F-150 Lariat FX4 Supercrew with the 3.5L Ecoboost twin turbo V6. You're looking at $50k worth of truck.[/QUOTE]
Yep, my dad and brother have one. It's a pretty machine.
[editline]4th December 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=GhillieBacca;51474101]The ones you listed are entry level models, they are always white and they have the most basic of options (nothing much at all).
[t]http://3-photos7.ebizautos.com/new-2016-ford-f~150-2wdregcab1225xl-8545-14593268-1-1024.jpg[/t]
Honestly better to go above the 30k range if you want a good truck.[/QUOTE]
Those are almost exclusively intended for fleet vehicles. I'm guessing there would be a bare bones version of a Tesla truck, too. They would be dumb to try to sell optioned out luxury trucks to construction workers and AC repairmen.
The typical fleet trucks I see are the supercab models with the V8s, usually by construction companies. The base model I rarely ever see, if ever, used - but again that comes down to local bias and experience.
I still see more 2010/2011ish Rangers being used by municipal government fleets. It's smaller, ergonomic and fits what they need it for.
Although knowing that it makes sense Elon Musk wants to target the F150 as a standard for their electric truck. The F150 has been the best selling truck for more than 40 years, used by public and private work sectors alike. If you can top [I]the[/I] work truck of the western world then no one really has the right to criticize you.
I really don't see Tesla ever bringing out something resembling a base model car.
Unless it comes with steelies, fabric interior, no floor mats, and a tiny touch screen. It will probably still be expensive from the get go.
Depreciation is your best hope for a used Tesla.
[QUOTE=OvB;51470675]I feel like a completely flat bottom on a truck would be a benefit. Nothing hanging down that can get knocked out. Teslas already have decent armoring on the battery park, and a titanium plate that defends a portion of it.[/quote]
And that armoring is designed to withstand the bumps and scrapes of a sedan grinding on a particularly nasty parking lot transition, not 6,000 pounds of 4x4 smashing its entire weight down on a granite spike in the bush.
I will agree on the flat bottom, amongst other things it would make high centering the vehicle much more difficult, but it comes with one caveat: It has to be easily removed for field repairs/bodgework. The last thing you need is to have a flat bottom that requires a lift to remove when you're forty miles from the nearest highway in the bush with a broken steering link because you caught a rock hidden in a bush just so. It's a huge issue if you can't get that skidplate out of the way so you can bodge it back into sufficiently functional condition that you can limp it to a road for a tow.
But that's not a difficult thing to do. Make it in sections, countersink the bolts, done. The section below the damaged part will drop down nice and easy.
[quote] The battery pack would be the same as previous Teslas, a flat board. I don't see how that would affect anything to do with the bed.[/QUOTE]
IT's gotta go somewhere, and you're gonna need a LOT more battery to work a truck than you will a car. Trucks are big, heavy, unaerodynamic, built to tow a lot of shit(Given all the blustering about E-motor torque at dead stall, if the half-ton Tesla truck doesn't have a GVWR north of 12,500 pounds nobody's gonna buy it over the ICE competition, and they're gonna need a shitton more capacity to supply that kind of a GVWR). You're not gonna be able to slap the battery from an S into the pickup and have it work. The range is going to be laughable the instant you load the thing up. If they want to give it a half-useable amount of range while towing a ridiculously heavy load they're gonna need to stuff every last little nook and cranny with lithium cells.
And that may entail raising the bed floor up to make room for them all.
And that is a - when someone's buying a pickup truck.
The higher your bed floor is the more labor intensive loading the thing becomes. Especially if what you're loading into it is, say, a fridge. Or a recliner. Or a lawn tractor. You know, the exact sorts of heavy, bulky items that Average Joe Blow is gonna want to put in the back of his pickup truck! And, indeed, the sorts of things that mine has carried countless times over the years!
Engineering a truck that will sell is quite a bit trickier than a sedan. Sedan buyers are pretty DGAF about these sorts of things, truck buyers are incredibly picky about them. I know I am, and I'm not alone here. Most of us care far more about how easy it is to get a lawn mower in the back of the truck than we do about the fuel economy or NVH ratings. Tesla need to be careful with where they stuff all those extra battery cells or they're gonna find themselves losing sales on practical matters pertaining to actually using it as a pickup truck. Itt'l significantly impact public sales and it will all but annihilate fleet sales.
[editline]4th December 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;51473622]I've got a '15 F-150 Lariat FX4 Supercrew with the 3.5L Ecoboost twin turbo V6. [b]You're looking at $50k worth of truck.[/b][/QUOTE]
And this is why I plan on restoring my '85 instead of replacing it. I spend $15,000 on a bumper to bumper restoration and I get every bit as much of a truck as you've got, with the caveat that the thing may have a bench seat and lack a few computers that I don't want anyway. But I don't mind that, and I get a manual trans which I vastly prefer and is flat out not available by any means from Ford on the current generation half-ton.
By "same as previous Teslas" I meant the general design idea of it. It will need to be bigger for the reasons you said, but it will have to all be a completely different architecture. They found this out the hard way for the Model X. It was originally meant to be basically a body swap on the same chassis as the Model S, but it turned out to need a lot more work, and they eventually ended up having to redesign a whole bunch of it. If you were going to make a pickup truck, it would need to be a complete redesign, but the battery would be the same general idea. A flat portion along the bottom, perhaps thicker. The suspension and everything is going to have to be all new, too. They've said that their target competition for a pickup truck would be the F-150. If they have to remove bed and towing capacity to make a truck, they will have failed to do that.
[editline]4th December 2016[/editline]
The bottom of a Tesla is flat because there's nothing but a battery there. You won't be able to remove the battery in the field off weight alone, but you should still have access to the other bits like steering links and whatever else, and there won't be any differentials or drive units hanging low that can get beat up by rocks.
Workhorse Group has been designing their own electric pickup truck currently in the $50k range:[url]https://www.trucks.com/2016/11/07/workhorse-group-electric-pickup-trucks/[/url]
They have already displayed the design of their platform and chassis: [url]http://workhorse.com/pickup[/url]
Aimed at 6,500 towing capacity and they want to target the business fleet demographic. They know that fleets want something that pays for itself and will go green if it does. Has a EV range of 80 and a hybrid range of 310.
Tesla could take a few notes from them on how to approach such a design.
Musk won't release a product if he think it's bad and doesn't compete as well as it should. It will simply be delayed until they have a good product.
See: Model X & Falcon Heavy.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51475119]Workhorse Group has been designing their own electric pickup truck currently in the $50k range:[url]https://www.trucks.com/2016/11/07/workhorse-group-electric-pickup-trucks/[/url]
They have already displayed the design of their platform and chassis: [url]http://workhorse.com/pickup[/url]
Aimed at 6,500 towing capacity and they want to target the business fleet demographic. They know that fleets want something that pays for itself and will go green if it does. Has a EV range of 80 and a hybrid range of 310.
Tesla could take a few notes from them on how to approach such a design.[/QUOTE]
Hybrid though. We already got Hybrid trucks.
[url]http://www.viamotors.com/[/url]
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51475119]Workhorse Group has been designing their own electric pickup truck currently in the $50k range:[url]https://www.trucks.com/2016/11/07/workhorse-group-electric-pickup-trucks/[/url]
They have already displayed the design of their platform and chassis: [url]http://workhorse.com/pickup[/url]
Aimed at 6,500 towing capacity and they want to target the business fleet demographic. They know that fleets want something that pays for itself and will go green if it does. Has a EV range of 80 and a hybrid range of 310.
Tesla could take a few notes from them on how to approach such a design.[/QUOTE]
6500 towing capacity isn't much when you consider the 3.5L V6 ecoboost tows 12,000+
The Model X can already tow a similar amount (though it's above what Tesla says you should do):
[video=youtube;2mQH1UInM_U]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mQH1UInM_U[/video]
Curb weight of a Model X is about 5400 lbs or so, who knows how much the trailer weighs.
I would like to see someone torture test a Tesla. See how much it can pull before it breaks. Bring that thing to a tractor pull, or chain it up to some good ol' boys turbo diesel.
[QUOTE=OvB;51475146]Hybrid though. We already got Hybrid trucks.
[url]http://www.viamotors.com/[/url][/QUOTE]
Whats wrong with more Hybrid trucks? The more competition the faster it forces companies to innovate and make their EVs better.
Especially as Workhorse will offer an almost double pure electric range. This is better for Tesla because they have other sources to draw ideas from on how to make a EV truck.
For a starting price at under $50k before incentives its worth looking at for fleets who don't want to deal with the troubles of diesel engines which Ford has had major problems with in the past and developed a bad rep for them. The price isn't set in stone but once its being manufactured we'll see a MSRP.
I think the general public is okay with EV's with the exception of finding home charging in increasingly dense cities. Another key problem is affordability..
You can buy a 2017 Chevrolet Colorado for 1/2 the price of a brand new 2017 Bolt.
[QUOTE=SpaceGhost;51470782]A 2016 ford f-150 is about 26k, , 2016 GMC canyon is 20k, Same for Chevrolet colorado. The really expensive ones are for the heavy duty/etc.[/QUOTE]
As someone else has already mentioned, those are very basic models. My f-150 isn't brand new, its a 2014 with 50k miles on it, 4x4, extended cab and a V8. It got it for around 27k.
Tesla's basic car model is already pretty expensive. I would imagine the the price for a basic Tesla truck would at least have to be over 40k.
And if your going to spend that much on a truck, your going to want some bang with it, otherwise why not get a car or a much cheaper gas model that does virtually same thing.
[editline]4th December 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=chernisreal?;51476249]I think the general public is okay with EV's with the exception of finding home charging in increasingly dense cities. Another key problem is affordability..
You can buy a 2017 Chevrolet Colorado for 1/2 the price of a brand new 2017 Bolt.[/QUOTE]
Holy shit I had no idea Bolts where that much. Thats terrible.
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