Looking Back on the Limits of Growth, or: MIT Predicts That World Economy Will Collapse By 2030 - Polidicks

I wash I was born in the 80s, everything was cool back then.

These statements are always at least partially filled with bullshit. They're unreliable because they take into account the current technological setup of the world, without taking into account any technological development that might improve the economy, because let's be honest, nobody can predict that. So who knows. Maybe the world will go to shit, maybe it won't. Maybe we'll be able to harness nuclear fusion to our benefit. Maybe we'll come up with a crazy solution to solve global pollution. Or maybe we won't. who knows.

The difficulty with predicting the future is that the chances of being right sharply decreases the further you get into the future. This is following the current trend, and humans do tend to be rather negative in many respects with how they view the future. (Most media views of the future is that of pessimism rather than optimism.)

[QUOTE=Xenocidebot;35451845]I know you're trying to be skeptical but you bolded a word which had no impact on what you said (the several scenarios were talking about things we might change, not potential outcomes along the same course, hence the mention of the "business-as-usual scenario") and then cited a guy who believed inflation was an "extralegal form of redistribution" and wanted to increases taxes on any company daring to pay its workers a wage above a government set baseline, and assumed it would be more fun to let an economy die by way of free market than attempting to reign it in. How is it that scientists know about how much gold is on the planet total, even though we haven't ripped the entirety of it from the land and sea? You do not, when learning how to drive a manual transmission, hit the accelerator as hard as possible, under the assumption your understanding of vehicles will be vastly different when you attempt to shift. Put another way, technology isn't fucking magic, don't assume it'll fix a problem in the future if there isn't already a visible solution in sight.[/QUOTE] Technology is changing faster than you can imagine. This is just malthusian bullshit because it really does not take into account how vastly different technology will be in 18 years. Solar panels are getting cheaper at a ridiculous pace, treating water with nano-technology is working and is getting cheaper, GM crops will eventually have some regulation and be used properly. Nano-mollecular technology is slowly, but surely going into 3d so we can fully manipulate molecules and quite literally create food from mud. From an economical outlook we haven't even tapped in Africa's resources or all of Asia's resources. The rest of the world is developing slowly and will develop even faster when they drop neo-liberal economic practices. I'm pretty sure it's almost impossible to judge what is going to happen to the world, not to mention the world economy when we can't even readily predict what will happen next week.

We need space race 2 right now. Also, imagine how much of our oceans is unexplored, we never really gave much thought into "living on the water" (floating cities) and underwater, maybe more research should be put into that.

This is a study based off another study done in the 1970's using most of the figures from 1970's, which was in the heart of the cold war. Gee I wonder why they thought an economic collapse was going to happen then.... Oh right.

Fuck, now I'm sad.

[img]http://www.cvrick.com/.a/6a00d83451d29669e2010536965a64970b-800wi[/img] (un)survival guide

[QUOTE=thisispain;35450911][img]http://www.messagefrommasters.com/Osho/osho/Osho-on-karl-marx.jpg[/img] Come on, it's worth a try.[/QUOTE] Communism is dated. [IMG]http://urbnfutr.theurbn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/jacque-fresco.png[/IMG]

Awesome, seeing how I'll finish university in about 2016, I'll be in the thick of an economic meltdown during my prime years in the management sphere.

I had hoped this was predicted by another doomsday freak, so I wouldn't have to worry about it :(

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY[/media] Well this series of videos already supported this idea.

Solution = stop using non-renewable resources and concentrate on stable economic growth not hyper growth that ultimately leads to economic decline.

good thing i have a job at subway now so i dont need to worry about this economy bullshit

Begin stockpiling.

Well we're boned

[QUOTE=skifer;35454138]Solution = stop using non-renewable resources and concentrate on stable economic growth not hyper growth that ultimately leads to economic decline.[/QUOTE] Good plan, let's just wholesale stop using oil and coal in the next 10 or so years right? Where do intend to get our chemical feedstocks from by the way cause that could be a bit of a deal breaker?

I don't think it will happen

[QUOTE=Pierrewithahat;35454817]Good plan, let's just wholesale stop using oil and coal in the next 10 or so years right? Where do intend to get our chemical feedstocks from by the way cause that could be a bit of a deal breaker?[/QUOTE] he said stop, not "immediately cease in a day"

[QUOTE=Pierrewithahat;35454817]Good plan, let's just wholesale stop using oil and coal in the next 10 or so years right? Where do intend to get our chemical feedstocks from by the way cause that could be a bit of a deal breaker?[/QUOTE] Well we DID recently unlock a generator which produces enough energy for itself and appliances around it... Either way, once we start noticing this, we most likely WILL do something about this. And once we do something about something, we usually do it fast enough and get things done.

[QUOTE=GlebGuy;35454919]Well we DID recently unlock a generator which produces enough energy for itself and appliances around it... Either way, once we start noticing this, we most likely WILL do something about this. And once we do something about something, we usually do it fast enough and get things done.[/QUOTE] No we didn't cause perpetual motion machines don't work. And even if we did have that, we still need crude for the sheer fact that we use every single part of it for something useful. If we had a better alternative to it we would use it, the fact of the matter is, right now we literally survive purely thanks to oil. [editline]6th April 2012[/editline] [QUOTE=Turnips5;35454917]he said stop, not "immediately cease in a day"[/QUOTE] To phase out crude oil and use some other miraculous wonder material would take years and years, besides, what mystical chemical feedstock material are we going to use to replace crude oil with?

[QUOTE=Earthen;35453456]Technology is changing faster than you can imagine. This is just malthusian bullshit because it really does not take into account how vastly different technology will be in 18 years. Solar panels are getting cheaper at a ridiculous pace, treating water with nano-technology is working and is getting cheaper, GM crops will eventually have some regulation and be used properly. Nano-mollecular technology is slowly, but surely going into 3d so we can fully manipulate molecules and quite literally create food from mud. From an economical outlook we haven't even tapped in Africa's resources or all of Asia's resources. The rest of the world is developing slowly and will develop even faster when they drop neo-liberal economic practices. I'm pretty sure it's almost impossible to judge what is going to happen to the world, not to mention the world economy when we can't even readily predict what will happen next week.[/QUOTE] Actually it does. Renewable energies use a lot of limited ressources like neodym and various chemicals to create solar panels and what not. This study already takes into account that we will run out of those BECAUSE we will need t shift to renewable energies as the global demand for them will grow exponentially. [editline]6th April 2012[/editline] [QUOTE=Pierrewithahat;35454817]Good plan, let's just wholesale stop using oil and coal in the next 10 or so years right? Where do intend to get our chemical feedstocks from by the way cause that could be a bit of a deal breaker?[/QUOTE] We already have technologies to create crude-oil like substances or at least ressources we can use to create plastic and all that stuff from algae. It is just very very expensive and energy intensive.

Honestly, it sometimes feels like I'm the only optimist left in the world and my life isn't even all that rosy. Here's my prediction: None of this shit will happen and everyone will be alright.

Yeah so like I said: [quote]If we had a better alternative to it we would use it[/quote] We don't have a better alternative, crude will be our crutch for a long long time yet, trust me I'm not happy about it and if we actually had something else then that would be amazing but we're decades away from being free of it. [editline]6th April 2012[/editline] [QUOTE=NotMeh;35455034]Honestly, it sometimes feels like I'm the only optimist left in the world and my life isn't even all that rosy. Here's my prediction: None of this shit will happen and everyone will be alright.[/QUOTE] Our resources are running out fast, why do you think a lot of people and governments had a massive drive to start recycling?

[QUOTE=Over-Run;35454910]I don't think it will happen[/QUOTE] Thank god. Everyone stop panicking, he doesn't think it will happen.

People have been making predictions like these for years and virtually none have come true, I wouldn't worry too much.

[QUOTE=NotMeh;35455034]Honestly, it sometimes feels like I'm the only optimist left in the world and my life isn't even all that rosy. Here's my prediction: None of this shit will happen and everyone will be alright.[/QUOTE] It's not about being optimistic, it's about knowing how people and the world work and making the most educated projection. There is no optimism or pessimism in that. There is just science.

[QUOTE=carcarcargo;35455245]People have been making predictions like these for years and virtually none have come true, I wouldn't worry too much.[/QUOTE] None of those people were MIT and this has been predicted for about 20 years, and it's following most of what they say. Besides, resources will run out, and we have no way to replace them once we hit that moment where shit goes down hill there is absolutely, 100%, no way in hell to recover from it unless vast swathes of people die and there ends up being a good resource/people ratio.

I'm suspicious because the graph stops displaying data at 2000.

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCEfqj9pDAI&feature=related[/media] Well, my Gents, it was an honor to have lived on the same doomed planet with you all. :v: