U.S. Prods China on North Korea, Saying Soft Approach Has Failed

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=strazyyy;49491305]Didn't the North Koreans close Kaesong due to tensions a while ago?[/QUOTE]Yes, in 2013 they closed the zone because of tensions and general fit pitching but, surprise surprise, they quickly wanted it reopened just a few months later.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]actually the case in the country now is that it's basically self-sufficient for staples now. rice production has grown steadily over the past decade (although other things are lagging). state distribution and agriculture still holds back things significantly (as was in the ussr and china), but it's now more the case that small farmers and markets are feeding the country now. malnutrition is still a big problem, but famine isn't really happening there anymore (nothing of the 90s level will happen again)[/QUOTE]No they aren't. I don't know where you're reading this but food self-sufficiency is not even remotely a thing and historically the northern part of the peninsula has always been subject to famines. Unless North Korea has some super fantastical method of crop growing, they simply do not have enough land to feed their own people [i]at all.[/i] You're just wildly guessing at this shit, blind optimism does not make things actually happen Sobotnik.

[url=http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC]North Korea has 0.09 hectares per person,[/url] even if they had the best possible soil for crop farming (they absolutely do not) they still couldn't do it. [B]They never fucking will. Ever.[/B]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]sanctions haven't worked on north korea and they never will. their economy has been growing in spite of them in recent years. the fact the market system in the country has been co-opted by a state is a sign of stabilization. the growth of these markets are only empowering the state through providing an alternate source of revenue. the newly enriched people who have benefited from the growth of markets are not going to want the state to collapse, and if anything will support it. as for failed state, north korea is only a failed state if you consider its ability to provide public services, promote economic growth, etc. in terms of the stability of the /state/ in itself, it is resting upon a pretty hard bedrock. north korean people view the north korean state as their own, the government as fairly legitimate in their eyes.[/QUOTE]Uh, [i]all of that is still illegal[/i] and North Korea has decades of precedence for randomly up and cracking down on this sort of shit. There will be no Chinese economic reform in North Korea as long as the government remains a dynastic autocracy, period.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]lol its not the famine years anymore. your information is like 15 years out of date.[/QUOTE]... People in North Korea are [B]still[/B] dying of starvation. That's what a famine is. People dying of starvation.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]north koreans generally eat staple grains and vegetables, with the occasional introduction of meat or imported chinese/south korean snacks (particularly in border zones). people in the market towns and cities have a wider variety of food, and in the case of Pyongyang the middle and upper classes eat pretty well there. starvation in the poorest districts (particularly after a drought) is bad, but the impact of these food shortages isn't the same as back then. generally the trade balance is good for china too. north korea imports a lot of cheaper consumer goods (some chinese companies explicitly design goods for export to the country), while exporting materials such as coal and iron ore to china (although migrant labour has been growing rapidly).[/QUOTE]Yeah saying "the middle and upper classes eat well, there is no famines" is stupid bullshit, everyone else outside of Pyongyang and farming communities are still met with starvation. You're acting under the pretense that because there is no countrywide crisis that actually could cut the population in half almost overnight the situation must clearly be okay, when in reality it isn't and it won't be for a long time and it never was to begin with. This has always loomed ever since before the war and it'll remain long after today. Hell, when a hundred and fifty North Korean fisherman die because they're so far out that they get lost you should know something's up. Likely hundreds of unofficial fisherman have also died every year for decades, there just isn't enough to keep the country going by itself.

China's exporting of consumer goods is officially state regulated and beyond that Chinese merchants basically rip off the locals for cheap bullshit, again this is illegal and pointing to the very illegal black market as a sign of prosperity of a country is [U]stupid.[/U] That's like saying America's doing great because crack prices are at an unprecedented high, and we'll soon have flying cars because Mexicans are starting to brew meth specifically for American consumers. This is the dumbest fucking argument I've ever seen made in defense of this tinpot dictatorship, and believe me, I've seen a lot.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]while some of their money goes to the north korean government, the workers there (and also migrants) still make some money. remittances back home to families contribute a fair amount of foreign exchange earnings, and north koreans are often eager to obtain such jobs because they are generally better paying.[/QUOTE]"Some money" try almost all, this is a country that gets part of it's budget from drug running and counterfeiting.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]it was also common for workers in the kaesong region to buy south korean goods and resell through the markets, and these jobs are usually highly sought for such a reason. again, people aren't realizing that this decade (especially since Kim Jong-Un took power), the country has been rapidly changing in terms of culture, economy, and society.[/QUOTE]This is, once more, illegal. That's actually the big change from Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-un, explicitly illegal activities are begrudgingly tolerated because it's keeping the country afloat right now. Everyone had these wildly fantastical predictions about how Kim Jong-un was going to be a wonderful guy and do nothing but good, but when reality came knocking everyone realized that no, he's just like his father. In fact that's exactly how he won the succession battle, he was exactly like his dad compared to his pansy ass brother so I'm not sure why you're expecting him to just be this nice guy. He killed his uncle, his mentor, likely to consolidate his power and scare the shit out of everyone else and supposedly had his ex-girlfriend and a bunch of other musicians executed because she was a slut or something. The guy isn't a nice dude, he's a tyrant and an asshole and the [I]moment[/I] he can wring the life out of the black market economy that's going on right now you can bet your sweet ass he's going to do it. Anyone who thinks otherwise has their fucking head in the clouds, the North Korean government runs on control and the more it gives up the less legitimate it is.

People checking out hallyu (South Korean culture, etc) is not actually a sign of prosperity in North Korea by the way. On the contrary, it shows that people are giving less and less of a fuck what the government says, and that completely undermines your argument that "well the Kims rule with an iron fist so the country is stable." I mean everything else I've said demonstrates how wrong that is and how the country is being propped up because it's the geopolitical version of a tub of radioactive waste nobody wants to spill, but that right there shows that the government itself is losing control at a steady pace.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]it's comparable to china in the 1980s[/QUOTE]No. It's not.

China in the 1980's could get by without most of it's food being given to it by neighbors and the UN. Meanwhile the Chinese government had several political changes that allowed a much more liberal approach to how it governed it's people, North Korea has had none of those at all. Again, North Korea will not experience anything like China has while it's political system is completely and totally focused on dictating every little aspect of the lives of it's citizens. Actually the very ideology it's founded on directly clashes with the concept of liberalizing the country, Juche is a very "us vs them" mentality and the government absolutely has to have an iron grip on the country or it will lose it's legitimacy. What you're expecting will happen simply cannot be unless there's a political revolution.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

More examples of how North Korea is starving and needs help:

[url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/23/north-korea-mongolia-food-aid-us_n_3138761.html[/url]
[url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/08/north-korea-food-aid-_n_3406941.html[/url]
[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/n-korea-statement-re-opens-the-door-to-a-food-for-nukes-deal-with-united-states/2012/01/11/gIQAojvNqP_story.html[/url]
[url]http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/01/opinion/analysis-north-korea-promise/[/url]

Oh hey look at that, all of this is happening [I]after[/I] the "famine years" and during a time when North Korea is supposedly self-sufficient according to you. Bullshit.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

Here's some more:

[url]http://thediplomat.com/2011/09/why-to-give-north-korea-food-aid/[/url] This is about how it's just easier to throw bags of rice at them so they won't all starve and get crazy and desperate. Also I had forgotten that my country has given so goddamn much to keep that silly country alive.
[url]http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-21441917[/url] Basically "China could fucking destroy North Korea by cutting off their access to the money and trade tit."
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-aid-un-idUSKBN0N01YK20150409[/url] UN crying for money to feed North Korea because it's so stable it needs handouts
[url]http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/north-korea-clamps-down-on-foreign-aid-groups/[/url] Biting The Hand That Feeds You: The Country
[url]http://www.cato.org/blog/no-foreign-aid-north-korea-another-famine-strikes[/url] Thinktank piece, basically about how we should let them starve so we just get the inevitable done and over with.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

Oh, and mind you that not all the aid they get is for food. They also need fuel because haha North Korea has no oil, which is some serious shit considering that without rail transport (which needs fuel) three quarters of their trade would be fucking gone. Well, unless China wants to start sending trains into North Korea to pick up the shit they want and bring their own diesel too.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

EITHER WAY, BESIDES ALL OF THAT:

You're still going "look at this fantastic market economy they're so prosperous!" when it is the biggest and most glaring sign that the country is falling apart at the seams. One of the most anti-capitalist countries in [I]history[/I] is so fucking broke and broken that they need to reluctantly ignore a completely laissez-faire market economy running amok in their glorious Juche land of socialism just so it all stays in one place.

It's fucking hilarious that you're using [I]that[/I] as a sign of how prosperous this shitty, stupid hellhole of a country has become while it's people starve huddled around a cheap video player made in China watching South Korean soap operas and wishing their lives didn't suck so fucking bad.

Oh wait. No it isn't hilarious at all, because that's terrible and depressing.

[Zillamaster55]

Oh boy man don't we want to see North Korea succeed!

I mean yeah the whole starvation and death camps and random executions of political adversaries are kinda bad but who cares!

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49491641]YI don't know where you're reading this but food self-sufficiency is not even remotely a thing and historically the northern part of the peninsula has always been subject to famines. Unless North Korea has some super fantastical method of crop growing, they simply do not have enough land to feed their own people [i]at all.[/i][/quote]

[url]http://www.trust.org/item/20140326133720-v8fe0/[/url]

agricultural production has been slowly recovering over the past decade. most north koreans are no longer really starving to death anymore, and have a diet that consists primarily of staple cereals, vegetables, tubers, legumes, etc. one of the big shortages is of meat however, with a slightly better availability of fish.

you need to stop thinking that its the year 2006. virtually all of your arguments would be true if it was 2006, but it is no longer that year, it's 2016

[quote]China in the 1980's could get by without most of it's food being given to it by neighbors and the UN. Meanwhile the Chinese government had several political changes that allowed a much more liberal approach to how it governed it's people, North Korea has had none of those at all.[/quote]

china is still a heavy autocracy. it's possible to retain an authoritarian style of government while introducing economic reform (vietnam being an example). there's indications they have already moved in this direction.

[quote]Oh, and mind you that not all the aid they get is for food. They also need fuel because haha North Korea has no oil, which is some serious shit considering that without rail transport (which needs fuel) three quarters of their trade would be fucking gone. Well, unless China wants to start sending trains into North Korea to pick up the shit they want and bring their own diesel too.[/quote]

they actually have massive coal reserves and some hydroelectricity. most traffic travels by rail, foot, bicycle, oxcart, or water in the country. automobiles play a small (but growing) role in transport.

[quote]You're still going "look at this fantastic market economy they're so prosperous!" when it is the biggest and most glaring sign that the country is falling apart at the seams. One of the most anti-capitalist countries in [I]history[/I] is so fucking broke and broken that they need to reluctantly ignore a completely laissez-faire market economy running amok in their glorious Juche land of socialism just so it all stays in one place.[/quote]

i'm not saying its prosperous by any means. the point im making is that the economic system in their country is steadily changing. this new economy has resulted in a different kind of north korea.

this new korea is characterized by a new class of wealthy middle/upper class types who have allied themselves with the state and are gradually changing it from the inside out. the market economy is entrenching itself within the country and the state has started to co-opt the newly enriched people into the state rather than crack down upon them. the result is that the political system continues largely untouched because no major opposition groups are forming.

again let me reiterate. it's not 2006 anymore, it's 2016.

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492037][url]http://www.trust.org/item/20140326133720-v8fe0/[/url]

agricultural production has been slowly recovering over the past decade. most north koreans are no longer [B]really starving to death anymore,[/B] and have a diet that consists primarily of staple cereals, vegetables, tubers, legumes, etc. one of the big shortages is of meat however, with a slightly better availability of fish.[/QUOTE]"No longer really starving anymore" is not the same as "not starving anymore." Like I don't know how else to fucking tell you this. Unless they've somehow managed to defy the most basic of concepts in botany they simply cannot produce enough food to feed 28 million people. It doesn't matter if it's 2006, 2016, 1906, fucking 2266 the fact remains that their amount of cropland does not and never will produce enough fucking food. Ever. It's impossible. Your article posted they "may achieve self-sufficiency in cereals in 2014" and then cites food tonnage deficits. Meanwhile it doesn't take into account that the state-run distribution system has cut back heavily on how much it distributes and, by simple process of deduction, this means it needs less as it is giving less.

You're saying they have a diet of "cereals, vegetables, tubers, and legumes" which are all from small gardens that have been illegal to grow for decades and only until [B]very[/B] recently has this restriction been dropped. They're still starving, they're just not using North Korea's shitty, broken distribution system because they know they can't rely on it and the government knows it can't deliver.

Point out how they achieved self-sufficiency in 2014 by the way. Or 2015. It's 2016 remember, you made that perfectly clear.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492037]china is still a heavy autocracy. it's possible to retain an authoritarian style of government while introducing economic reform (vietnam being an example). there's indications they have already moved in this direction.[/QUOTE]Uh, both China and Vietnam didn't have a self-invented system that relied on a deification of their leaders and a complete and absolute dominance over the individual lives of the citizenry. They also didn't have a system that explicitly sets themselves apart from the rest of the world and makes any economic reform a complete impossibility.

Then there's the Juche philosophy, which is [B]extremely[/B] anti-capitalist in prose and in practice North Korea's taken a harder stance against anything even resembling a capitalistic idea even when compared the to batshit insanity of the Chinese "Cultural Revolution. Every single thing that's allowed now is something Kim Il-sung vehemently hated and wanted to crush and stamp out for good.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492037]they actually have massive coal reserves and some hydroelectricity. most traffic travels by rail, foot, bicycle, oxcart, or water in the country. automobiles play a small (but growing) role in transport.[/QUOTE]Motherfucking newsflash: they don't use steam engines to pull trains. Their coal reserves are their major export product to China, they don't use coal to power their transportation network.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492037]this new korea[/QUOTE]Stop. Right there. Stop fucking thinking that this is a new normal, the government is not going to allow any of:[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492037]characterized by a new class of wealthy middle/upper class types who have allied themselves with the state and are gradually changing it from the inside out.[/QUOTE]this shit from continuing any longer than it has to. No. You're claiming that a government that runs on the literal worship of it's leader(s) and has [I]absolute authority[/I] over everything and everyone is going to be "changed from the inside" by, what, stooges and appointees who are afforded the luxury of having currency and consumer trinkets? What the fuck are you smoking? That has NEVER FUCKING WORKED ever in history! Point out a single instance where somebody "on the inside" brought about radical change to an oppressive, awful regime built on fear and morphed it into something good. Please. Take all the fucking time you need because I'm genuinely curious.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492037]again let me reiterate. it's not 2006 anymore, it's 2016.[/QUOTE]I am well aware of the year, it doesn't matter how much you say "you're living in the past man!" because I have [I]given you examples[/I] of how the country is [U]still[/U] fucked up.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49492741]Your article posted they "may achieve self-sufficiency in cereals in 2014" and then cites food tonnage deficits. Meanwhile it doesn't take into account that the state-run distribution system has cut back heavily on how much it distributes and, by simple process of deduction, this means it needs less as it is giving less.[/quote]

the state-run distribution system doesn't feed the country anymore. the point is that domestic production has been slowly increasing. it has reached the point where north korea is approaching self-sufficiency. the article explicitly states food deficits are dropping and that domestic production is increasing

they're still producing more food than they used to, and their diets are becoming slowly better and more nutritious (although again i must say that their diets are still poor and deficient)

[quote]Then there's the Juche philosophy, which is [B]extremely[/B] anti-capitalist in prose and in practice North Korea's taken a harder stance against anything even resembling a capitalistic idea even when compared the to batshit insanity of the Chinese "Cultural Revolution. Every single thing that's allowed now is something Kim Il-sung vehemently hated and wanted to crush and stamp out for good.[/quote]

they dont really care about that. the latest generation of north koreans (known as jangmadang) don't give a shit, and i don't give a shit either.

[url]http://newfocusintl.com/jangmadang-walls-are-growing-higher/[/url]
[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2012/12/28/along-the-chinese-border-defectors-say-north-korean-province-is-quietly-liberalizing/[/url]

these articles goes into some detail as to why the north korea you are thinking of is more history than the present reality

[quote]Motherfucking newsflash: they don't use steam engines to pull trains. Their coal reserves are their major export product to China, they don't use coal to power their transportation network.[/quote]

they use coal and hydroelectricity to power their railways. most of the north korean railway network is electrified.

[quote]Stop. Right there. Stop fucking thinking that this is a new normal[/QUOTE]

except it is. we're talking about a state which nearly collapsed in the 1990s. since then, a class of wealthy people who have made considerable monies in industry, commerce, and business has since arisen. rather than cracking down on them since they embody capitalism, the north korean state has instead co-opted them into the power structure and is reinforcing itself internally.

what this means is that the political system (i.e the autocracy) is going to continue perpetuating itself because the opposition that would have otherwise been created by these challenges has been subsumed into the state. that is why north korea is stable and why it isn't going to collapse. there are no effective opposition groups to really mount a challenge to the state. as long as this state of affairs is maintained north korea will remain independent and politically stable (bar outright invasion).

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492916]the state-run distribution system doesn't feed the country anymore. the point is that domestic production has been slowly increasing. it has reached the point where north korea is approaching self-sufficiency. the article explicitly states food deficits are dropping and that domestic production is increasing[/QUOTE]Yes, and that's all well and good (I'm not even sure why you posted the article because it doesn't disprove anything I said) but still they will never, ever achieve self-sufficiency in food. Maybe if they heavily invest in hydroponics or aquaponics they could do this, but their current farming techniques combined with how little land they have means they will never, ever do it with land-based crop production at all.

Basically the only thing they've done good so far is let people grow their own food and stop throwing people in camps for foraging for food.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492916]they dont really care about that. the latest generation of north koreans (known as jangmadang) don't give a shit, and i don't give a shit either.

[url]http://newfocusintl.com/jangmadang-walls-are-growing-higher/[/url]
[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2012/12/28/along-the-chinese-border-defectors-say-north-korean-province-is-quietly-liberalizing/[/url]

these articles goes into some detail as to why the north korea you are thinking of is more history than the present reality[/QUOTE]Nothing in those articles says the government is explicitly endorsing this, it's just more of quiet acceptance of a current trend. They've mass-arrested people before for things they've tolerated for years, it seems to be the primary way the government fills up the camps when it needs cheap slave labor. Until there is clear efforts to recognize this emerging middle class as a real political force (which is all that really matters anyway) I'm going to continue to believe the oppressive regime will still oppress.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492916]they use coal and hydroelectricity to power their railways. most of the north korean railway network is electrified.[/QUOTE]Show me an all-electric train that's pulling 16,000 tons of coal and I'll concede the point.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49492916]except it is. we're talking about a state which nearly collapsed in the 1990s. since then, a class of wealthy people who have made considerable monies in industry, commerce, and business has since arisen. rather than cracking down on them since they embody capitalism, the north korean state has instead co-opted them into the power structure and is reinforcing itself internally.

what this means is that the political system (i.e the autocracy) is going to continue perpetuating itself because the opposition that would have otherwise been created by these challenges has been subsumed into the state. that is why north korea is stable and why it isn't going to collapse. there are no effective opposition groups to really mount a challenge to the state. as long as this state of affairs is maintained north korea will remain independent and politically stable (bar outright invasion).[/QUOTE]They haven't co-opted them though, they're an already privileged class that's being allowed economic freedom because ultimately the country runs on a feudal system gauged by family loyalty to the Kim dynasty. Everything you're saying is ignoring this simple fact about North Korea, the economic potential you have mentioned is completely stunted by this political system and as I've said it is only [U]allowed[/U] to exist at the whims of Kimmy the boy wonder. He can remove these privileges at any point and that's why everything you're saying I'm taking with a grain of salt, the current socioeconomic progress is inherently illegal and nothing indicates that it is a permanent change. Even if what you say is remotely true then that means there is an opposition group able to challenge the Kim family, so either way we look at this the country is not stable economically or politically, it's just an artificially supported mess that's going to inevitably crumble apart and is showing signs of crumbling. Today we see signs that the common people are giving unprecedented low levels of fucks about what their government says, it's failed them far too many times to be seen as an entity they care about anymore.

Oh, and if China wants the Kim dynasty to end it will end; all they have to do is lock up the border.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

I should note that when I talk of "privileged class" I mean the ignored merchant activity in Pyongyang itself. In areas where the sycophants with the little red books aren't so quick to put the jackboot down things are obviously far, far different and what you say is true.

That actually means the country is far less stable than you think. They have absolutely no precedence for this level of flippant disregard for the government's control, and there is no reliable mechanism for civil discourse with the government like there is in our societies. There is inherent instability in this and [I]every[/I] time the North Korean government has been met with such a phenomena they respond by mass-arresting the offensive element. Actually I'd argue that the whole reason why they're [I]ignoring[/I] the rise of a market economy is because they don't actually understand how to handle it any other way, it simply is not in the bureaucratic process they've constructed or the culture that surrounds it.

[Taepodong-2]

[QUOTE=Kill001;49481847]I've definitely heard from a Korean friend that SK doesn't really want to reunite with NK solely because trying to reintegrate NK economically would be insane.[/QUOTE]

The dialects of Korean they speak have also gotten to a point that North Koreans may as well be speaking a different language, so it would also be really difficult to integrate them socially as well.

They've even had to make a smartphone app for defectors to be able to translate words in the South Korean dialect that they don't understand into the North Korean dialect.
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym3HnjBxPsw[/media]

[HoodedSniper]

I am curious, what exactly does China gain being friendly with North Korea?

Isnt North Korea like even geographically shit with not a lot of natural resources?

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493152]Yes, and that's all well and good (I'm not even sure why you posted the article because it doesn't disprove anything I said) but still they will never, ever achieve self-sufficiency in food.[/quote]

except the article explicitly stated that domestic staple production is growing?

even then, assuming the limited economic growth in the country continues, they will import food from abroad if needs be (rather than relying on food aid) in line with the logic of comparative advantage in trade. the point i've consistently made is that the north korean economy has been stabilizing/improving after the collapse of the old socialist economy.

[quote]Until there is clear efforts to recognize this emerging middle class as a real political force (which is all that really matters anyway) I'm going to continue to believe the oppressive regime will still oppress.[/quote]

they aren't a real political force. the point i'm making is that the state is co-opting them, hence the state will remain stable. i don't care if the state will continue to repress or not, because the point is that the regime will still remain in power

[quote]They haven't co-opted them though, they're an already privileged class that's being allowed economic freedom because ultimately the country runs on a feudal system gauged by family loyalty to the Kim dynasty. Everything you're saying is ignoring this simple fact about North Korea, the economic potential you have mentioned is completely stunted by this political system and as I've said it is only [U]allowed[/U] to exist at the whims of Kimmy the boy wonder. He can remove these privileges at any point and that's why everything you're saying I'm taking with a grain of salt, the current socioeconomic progress is inherently illegal and nothing indicates that it is a permanent change. Even if what you say is remotely true then that means there is an opposition group able to challenge the Kim family, so either way we look at this the country is not stable economically or politically, it's just an artificially supported mess that's going to inevitably crumble apart and is showing signs of crumbling.[/quote]

people have been predicting that north korea will collapse for years but it hasn't. the growth of the markets hasn't translated into dissent against the regime.

you're forgetting that the regime has changed and will continue to change with time. autocracies adapt constantly.the growth of these markets is irreversible by this point, and your assertions that the state can get rid of them doesn't necessarily translate into it being something they will do because the necessary conditions that makes the old economy possible no longer exist.

north korean society has changed permanently in the past decade, and some of these changes are deep-reaching and widespread. but they have not resulted in either the state collapsing or becoming weaker. the newly enriched middling classes which are growing in the towns and cities do not pose any kind of threat to the regime. other than that there is no independent grouping or power capable of opposing the state, hence it will not collapse.

you haven't given me any real reason to believe why this country (which has outlasted the soviet union) is on the verge of collapse

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493322]except the article explicitly stated that domestic staple production is growing?[/QUOTE]... it doesn't matter how much it grows, the fact remains there is a hard limit on how much can be produced.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493322]even then, assuming the limited economic growth in the country continues, they will import food from abroad if needs be (rather than relying on food aid) in line with the logic of comparative advantage in trade. the point i've consistently made is that the north korean economy has been stabilizing/improving after the collapse of the old socialist economy.[/QUOTE]That's what we'd hope for but until that economy is finally done away with and they do enact serious, [I]serious[/I] economic reforms like China has done it's gonna still be a big fucking maybe.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493322]they aren't a real political force. the point i'm making is that the state is co-opting them, hence the state will remain stable. i don't care if the state will continue to repress or not, because the point is that the regime will still remain in power[/QUOTE]So they're either a non-factor and they regime will boot them out and reassert control or they are a threat to the regime and they regime will be forced to play ball. There's... not really a middle ground here, Sobotnik.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493322]people have been predicting that north korea will collapse for years but it hasn't. the growth of the markets hasn't translated into dissent against the regime.

you're forgetting that the regime has changed and will continue to change with time. autocracies adapt constantly.the growth of these markets is irreversible by this point, and your assertions that the state can get rid of them doesn't necessarily translate into it being something they will do because the necessary conditions that makes the old economy possible no longer exist.[/QUOTE]Except now we have real, tangible proof that the society that has remained largely the same for decades is changing, the entire country is literally falling to pieces, and the government's consistently failed to deal with crisis after crisis only to be rescued by the international community every time. They're sanctioned to hell and back so they can't grow, and they're guaranteed a safety net so they can't fail. A constant theme though is the government [I]always[/I] has the last say and up until the last ten years that was an absolute fact of life. It's not anymore.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493322]you haven't given me any real reason to believe why this country (which has outlasted the soviet union) is on the verge of collapse[/QUOTE]That's because they haven't been allowed to fail lmao

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

[QUOTE=HoodedSniper;49493303]I am curious, what exactly does China gain being friendly with North Korea?

Isnt North Korea like even geographically shit with not a lot of natural resources?[/QUOTE]They gain not having to deal with the bullshit of a completely failed state on their border. North Korea actually has a lot of mineral resources (historically it's really the only goddamn thing the north ever had) and something like three quarters of their total trade is with China. Really North Korea is China's China, they're the source for dirty, cheap labor if all else fails because you can't get much cheaper than somebody who's a step above an actual slave.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493373]... it doesn't matter how much it grows, the fact remains there is a hard limit on how much can be produced.[/quote]

isnt that the same problem in literally every other country in the world

[quote]That's what we'd hope for but until that economy is finally done away with and they do enact serious, [I]serious[/I] economic reforms like China has done it's gonna still be a big fucking maybe.

So they're either a non-factor and they regime will boot them out and reassert control or they are a threat to the regime and they regime will be forced to play ball. There's... not really a middle ground here, Sobotnik.[/quote]

chinas early years in reform were fraught with similar difficulties. there's a lot more similarities between north korea and china in the 1980s than you are willing to admit.

as for the growing middling classes they still aren't representing a threat to the regime. there is no effective opposition to the regime, which is why it isn't in any danger of collapse due to a revolution or something anytime soon

[quote]Except now we have real, tangible proof that the society that has remained largely the same for decades is changing, the entire country is literally falling to pieces, and the government's consistently failed to deal with crisis after crisis only to be rescued by the international community every time.[/quote]

except this hasn't happened?

the economy has been slowly growing, kim jong-un has stabilized his hold on power, there's no major power struggles or internal crises, the famine years are over, and living conditions for a number of people has improved slightly.

the 1990s was the only real time it could have collapsed (it nearly did). all of the communist states that collapsed did so after significant economic decline. the fact that in the past 10 years their economy has not only stabilized but is starting to grow slowly and recover from the ardous march era is an indication that what you are saying does not correspond to reality

your information seems to be either exaggerated or extremely out of date. it's not the 90s anymore, and north korea isn't going to collapse tomorrow, this year, and unlikely this decade or the next. while your posts have extreme hyperbole as a running theme, they are not really useful in an argument (except as a rhetorical device) when it comes to discussing the facts

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

[QUOTE=HoodedSniper;49493303]I am curious, what exactly does China gain being friendly with North Korea?

Isnt North Korea like even geographically shit with not a lot of natural resources?[/QUOTE]

for a long time, china has supported north korea because they didn't want korea to end up unifying. a unified korea would be a significant regional power (especially as japan is starting to decline now) and considering that south korea would basically take over the north, the thought of a strong US ally on their border is something they'd rather not think about

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493424]isnt that the same problem in literally every other country in the world[/QUOTE]Yeah, sure, but nobody is claiming they'll totally be self-sufficient in food production in every other country in the world.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493424]chinas early years in reform were fraught with similar difficulties. there's a lot more similarities between north korea and china in the 1980s than you are willing to admit.

as for the growing middling classes they still aren't representing a threat to the regime. there is no effective opposition to the regime, which is why it isn't in any danger of collapse due to a revolution or something anytime soon[/QUOTE]No there really isn't, the most glaring difference is China had a fully functional country that wasn't robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Like I don't get why you think there needs to be overt opposition for a threat to exist, that isn't how this country works.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493424]except this hasn't happened?[/QUOTE]hahaha yes it fucking has bro, their roads, buildings, fucking everything is crumbling, they need a black market to operate openly to even function, and the government has failed at containing crisis after crisis for decades. You can say "oh their economy is slowly growing" but at the end of the day that economy is supplemented by an explicitly illegal black market that is the duct tape and cardboard keeping the shitbox afloat.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493424]your information seems to be either exaggerated or extremely out of date. it's not the 90s anymore, and north korea isn't going to collapse tomorrow, this year, and unlikely this decade or the next.[/QUOTE][B]They cannot fucking fail, all of their neighbors and the international community have been consistently saving them from failure for decades. It is in everyone's best interest to keep a broken regime going rather than dealing with the monumentally huge clusterfuck the country has become ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union.[/B]

I have provided quite a few links that detail a pattern of this right up to last fucking year. This has not stopped, stop acting like it's old information because [I]it is a currently ongoing issue.[/I]

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

To reiterate: last motherfucking year the fucking North Koreans themselves asked for [I]additional[/I] aid specifically because they are so fucking poor that they cannot buy food to feed themselves.

Fucking citation:
[url]http://www.nknews.org/2015/09/north-korea-seeks-food-aid-from-un-aid-agency/[/url]

Also:
[url]http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/19/north-korea-fears-famine-as-drought-halves-food-production-says-un[/url] This also details how the number of hungry people has [B]risen[/B] since 1990. Ignoring the scientific impossibility of their food self-sufficiency, this alone shows that the reality is the exact opposite of what you've been claiming
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-aid-un-idUSKBN0N01YK20150409[/url] UN trying to raise funds. They say 70% of North Koreans are food insecure and a quarter of the country don't even have access to basic medical services.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493485]Like I don't get why you think there needs to be overt opposition for a threat to exist, that isn't how this country works.[/quote]

with a stable(ish) economy, extremely centralized political power, a large army, some moderate support from most of his subjects, and the lack of any rival power base in the country, i'm finding it hard to see what could actually threaten the regime.

[quote]hahaha yes it fucking has bro, their roads, buildings, fucking everything is crumbling, they need a black market to operate openly to even function[/quote]

the black market is the economy. for all intents and purposes we have to assume that it is the de facto method of distributing scarce resources. you're assuming that they will shut it down at any minute (they won't)

they have what is essentially a transition economy. you can dress it up with rhetorical flair but the reality is that north korea is changing into a different kind of society, and that north korea isn't going to collapse. it will still be an autocratic state, but the autocracy is still fairly strong and has no major challenges to it at present

[quote]They cannot fucking fail, all of their neighbors and the international community have been consistently saving them from failure for decades. It is in everyone's best interest to keep a broken regime going rather than dealing with the monumentally huge clusterfuck the country has become ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. I have provided quite a few links that detail a pattern of this right up to last fucking year. This has not stopped, stop acting like it's old information because it is a currently ongoing issue.[/QUOTE]

except none of that has really indicated why the north korean state is about to suddenly collapse.

could you explain the mechanism by which it will collapse and why? any prediction on a rough timeframe at all

[quote][url]http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/19/north-korea-fears-famine-as-drought-halves-food-production-says-un[/url] This also details how the number of hungry people has [B]risen[/B] since 1990. Ignoring the scientific impossibility of their food self-sufficiency, this alone shows that the reality is the exact opposite of what you've been claiming
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-aid-un-idUSKBN0N01YK20150409[/url] UN trying to raise funds. They say 70% of North Koreans are food insecure and a quarter of the country don't even have access to basic medical services.[/QUOTE]

you're being extremely disingenuous here. 1990 north korea was before the famines happened. the number of hungry people has slowly decreased in the post-famine years. i mean shouting "lmao bro what are you smoking you dipshit" and using "fucking" in every second sentence doesn't help support your argument

[url]http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/n-korea-myth-starvation-2014319124439924471.html[/url]
[url]http://www.wfp.org/countries/korea-democratic-peoples-republic-dprk/overview[/url]

basically while malnutrition is still a major problem (something i have kept repeating), there aren't famines in north korea anymore, this is something that the international agencies who actually know what they're talking about are reporting

rather than relying on hyperbole and inventing opinions which i do not hold as the basis for your arguments, you could focus on the main points which i'll reiterate again as i have been constantly restating:

1: north korea isn't going to collapse anytime soon
2: the north korean economy is slowly growing
3: famines dont really happen anymore

if you want to see the future of north korea, look at north hamgyung, that is where i see the country (outside of pyongyang) in 5-10 years

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493542]with a stable(ish) economy, extremely centralized political power, a large army, some moderate support from most of his subjects, and the lack of any rival power base in the country, i'm finding it hard to see what could actually threaten the regime.[/QUOTE]So they're a non-issue then? Okay. Back to the economy being an unstable mess of bullshit then, the middle class doesn't matter and is only a passing fad.

[url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/04/the-north-korean-government-is-getting-weaker-and-more-vulnerable-that-should-scare-you/]Except that isn't the case anymore.[/url] They're a political threat simply because the privileged classes aren't scared by purges but instead they're just making them angry and their continued loyalty is no longer easily purchased. Simply because they exist they are a direct threat to the Kim dynasty because they represent a new way of thinking in that they're not easily intimidated and have increasing demands.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493542]the black market is the economy. for all intents and purposes we have to assume that it is the de facto method of distributing scarce resources. you're assuming that they will shut it down at any minute (they won't)[/QUOTE]Explain to me why an autocratic regime that thrives on dominance of the population would willingly concede power. Please.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493542]they have what is essentially a transition economy. you can dress it up with rhetorical flair but the reality is that north korea is changing into a different kind of society, and that north korea isn't going to collapse. it will still be an autocratic state, but the autocracy is still fairly strong and has no major challenges to it at present[/QUOTE]If they're changing into a different society then the current regime needs to be done away with, it is fundamentally incompatible with everything you're talking about. Nothing about the North Korean government has [U]any[/U] mechanism to willingly give up power. Oh, and [url=http://www.theweek.co.uk/world-news/north-korea/52412/are-kim-jong-uns-nuclear-threats-driven-army-dissent]there has been a growing threat to Kim Jong-un's leadership and there are ever increasing challenges toward it.[/url]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493542]except none of that has really indicated why the north korean state is about to suddenly collapse.

could you explain the mechanism by which it will collapse and why? any prediction on a rough timeframe at all[/QUOTE]Alright. I will.

First of all I imagine it would be geopolitical in nature, the likelihood of North Korea entering into a conventional war is somewhat low but they are pushing their nuclear capabilities a lot and the recent test of a thermonuclear device and a successful SLBM test indicate that yes, things are changing. Normally North Korea has been dangerous much in the way that an ornery bull is dangerous: once you're inside the pen with it your risk of personal injury is quite high but the moment he can't get at you then you're safe. Having nuclear SLBM capability means North Korea has left their fence, they are now in the yard walking around freely.

This is unacceptable for everyone in the region.

China has so far been North Korea's patron and protector, whenever their plucky little neighbor falters they prop him back up so he can continue pissing off everyone else and being a constant annoyance for the Chinese. Currently the Chinese government is very unlikely to risk their own safety and security for a little tinpot nation like North Korea. Their economic worth is minuscule, they are a mere one percent of China's total trade and they serve as a nice way to contain all those pesky North Koreans (that are looked down upon in China by the way) from shitting up China with their starvation and being poor. So there is clear economic incentive to keep them afloat, but there is growing geopolitical [I]cost[/I] to doing that and their stability is becoming less and less of a concern for China. All it would take is for the United States to flatly warn China, "we will deal with this if you won't," and then it comes down to China realizing the United States is talking about direct military action. Everyone knows the US military is very capable of this, if Israel can bomb Syrian and Iraqi nuclear facilities with impunity despite their extensive anti-aircraft networks then surely the extremely advanced United States could level all the targets in North Korea that it wanted without loss. This would absolutely turn that tiny country upside down.

I imagine at this point China would lay it all out on the table for their small, puny neighbor: cut the shit or we will cut you off permanently. Beyond that, there is always an option of Chinese military intervention and occupation.

Meanwhile there's South Korea who is likely trying to figure out right now how to raise their readiness level without appearing to be posturing for a war. I'm sure the president's having a lot of hectic meetings trying to figure all this shit out, so maybe in a way North Korea's finally getting the respect it's always wanted. Let's say though that push comes to shove and then somebody takes a swing, bombs are actually put on target in North Korea. I'm guessing the handful of facilities in the northeastern part of the country dedicated to missiles and the naval bases along the eastern coast. (especially the Sinpo shipyard) Here no matter what happens there will be elements of the military who want to fight and those who don't, either way it would mean North Korea's suddenly put in the hot seat and they're either going to take it on the chin or start going to war. Let's say they take it on the chin. So the government's response is to go soft and [I]strongly protest[/I] this [I]violation[/I] and other very important words that nobody will ever give a single shit about. This has effectively weakened the power of the regime and it's weakened the standing of the government, so it will drive a wedge between the different [url=http://newfocusintl.com/factions-in-north-korea/]political factions[/url] that are more or less behind Kim at this point. I imagine some would be interested in finally having the chance to unfuck the country while others would be more interested in going to war and showing what their military could [I]really[/I] do, but all it would take is for enough well-respected generals to oust Kim Jong-un and replace him with a much, much more reliable candidate that they could control. Whatever sets off this spark is hard to say, but North Korea's walking a fine, fine line here and the moment they transition into a very real and very tangible nuclear threat they will [I]likely[/I] be dealt with.

Is this a possibility in the coming weeks? Maybe. Honestly, it's a big goddamn maybe. Is this enough to cause a coup or revolution? Probably not right away but damn would it sow those seeds. Alternatively China could just pull the plug and watch them flounder and beg for help before the government breaks down entirely.

Will the regime collapse without these things happening? Probably not, but I can tell you right now it will if China wills it. They're the ultimate authority here because they're the only thing really keeping North Korea alive and the moment, the [I]moment[/I] North Korea's shit gets too much for them they can and will act to protect themselves.

Here's some more reading:
[url]http://freebeacon.com/issues/china-doubles-aid-to-north-korea-under-kim-jong-un/[/url] Specifically this is about China's efforts to keep North Korea from tearing itself apart
[url]http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/08/04/World-Food-Program-Food-aid-to-North-Korea-up-110-percent-in-July/3871438712560/[/url] Increase in food aid, interesting tidbit: "State food rations in North Korea fluctuate from month to month, but the daily average ration for one person has been 390 grams." Huh. Less than half a pound per day, no wonder why they're far shorter than their southern neighbors.
[url]http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-north-korea-became-the-worlds-worst-economy-1451430114[/url] I think the title of this one speaks for itself.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493779][url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/04/the-north-korean-government-is-getting-weaker-and-more-vulnerable-that-should-scare-you/]Except that isn't the case anymore.[/url][/quote]

[quote]Despite these grave challenges, few political analysts expect the North Korean regime to collapse. Based on my research on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), I agree that the regime’s complete implosion is unlikely in the near future.[/quote]

your own source disagrees with you

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493542]1: north korea isn't going to collapse anytime soon
2: the north korean economy is slowly growing
3: famines dont really happen anymore[/QUOTE]Okay.

1: It's got a constant safety net.
2: Okay, so?
3: Yeah, it's got a constant safety net.

Nothing you're saying says "STABILITY" to me. They're propped up because they're just a mess that nobody wants to clean up.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493806]your own source disagrees with you[/QUOTE]Literally I have been fucking saying [B]THEY ARE PROPPED UP BY EVERYONE ELSE, NOBODY WANTS THEM TO FAIL.[/B]

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

Fucking even I said it in the very post you didn't goddamn read:

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493779]Will the regime collapse without these things happening? Probably not[/QUOTE]

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493812]Literally I have been fucking saying [B]THEY ARE PROPPED UP BY EVERYONE ELSE, NOBODY WANTS THEM TO FAIL.[/B][/QUOTE]

except you were saying that the regime is on the verge of collapse

most politicians, experts, and even the sources you have cited all disagree with you

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493847]except you were saying that the regime is on the verge of collapse

most politicians, experts, and even the sources you have cited all disagree with you[/QUOTE]Where did I say this? Please fucking quote me because I remember explicitly saying that it's [I]not stable.[/I] This is not the same as "on the verge of collapse."

I really don't see how politicians, experts, or the sources I've cited disagree with me. At all.

[editline]9th January 2016[/editline]

I mean I could be wrong, but I don't ever remember saying the regime will collapse like fucking this time tomorrow.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49493894]Where did I say this? Please fucking quote me because I remember explicitly saying that it's [I]not stable.[/I] This is not the same as "on the verge of collapse."[/quote]

except it is pretty stable, it's not collapsing anytime soon, which is the consensus opinion of virtually everybody on the subject save for you

[quote]I really don't see how politicians, experts, or the sources I've cited disagree with me. At all.[/quote]

[quote]Despite these grave challenges, few political analysts expect the North Korean regime to collapse. Based on my research on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), I agree that the regime’s complete implosion is unlikely in the near future.[/quote]

the point i've consistently made throughout the thread is that the north korean regime (in spite of its dysfunction) is relatively stable and won't collapse. the regime rests on a pretty solid enough bedrock for the time being

i mean you've consistently gone off into rambling tangents, without really addressing why north korea is unstable, when all of the evidence seems to point in the opposite direction

[JumpinJackFlash]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49493990]except it is pretty stable, it's not collapsing anytime soon,[/QUOTE]unstable =/= imminent collapse

Like I can't say this any more than that. You're going "OH ITS STABLE, IT WONT EVER COLLAPSE" and I'm going "but it fucking physically can't collapse despite all of these things." The world doesn't disagree with me Sobotnik, just you. Find me some reputable sources (KCNA doesn't count!) that say North Korea could absolutely without a doubt survive without foreign aid in 2016 and I will admit that maybe, perhaps, I could be wrong about this. Until then I bid you good day, sir.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49494203]unstable =/= imminent collapse

Like I can't say this any more than that. You're going "OH ITS STABLE, IT WONT EVER COLLAPSE" and I'm going "but it fucking physically can't collapse despite all of these things." The world doesn't disagree with me Sobotnik, just you. Find me some reputable sources (KCNA doesn't count!) that say North Korea could absolutely without a doubt survive without foreign aid in 2016 and I will admit that maybe, perhaps, I could be wrong about this. Until then I bid you good day, sir.[/QUOTE]

it's essentially stable for the next 10 to 20 years, after that you're basically going into futurology.

you haven't really given us anything about why the north korean state is so unstable besides rhetorical flourish about how north korea is a failed state, the people are starving, etc. it doesn't matter if the people are starving or oppressed because the regime still retains a fairly tight grip over the nation. even if you cut off aid and closed down the border it wouldn't collapse (it'd probably get them more support if anything). the only way the regime will vanish in the short term is if the country were actually invaded

north korea possesses a stable (if dysfunctional) regime that isn't going anywhere anytime soon. you're underestimating how much support it has. in general, most north korean people support the regime, and the criticisms they make rarely attack the fundamental basis of the regime in itself - only particular policies it has.

it's comparable to hating the democrats but supporting the constitution. in both cases the person is only criticizing the particular actions that the ruling party has made, rather than attacking the actual basis of the country they live in. in north korea, their equivalent view of legitimacy means that they aren't going to mount a revolution anytime soon. at most they will demand different policies, different politicians or officials, a rescinding of unpopular measures, they might riot or refuse to work, but ultimately they do not question the legitimacy of the actual "Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea"

[Download]

[QUOTE=HoodedSniper;49493303]I am curious, what exactly does China gain being friendly with North Korea?

Isnt North Korea like even geographically shit with not a lot of natural resources?[/QUOTE]

It stops the inevitable flood of refugees from materialising on their border and keeps a decent sized meatsheild between them and the US backed South.

[editline]10th January 2016[/editline]

Oh look, Sobotnik arguing something into the ground, despite having obviously lost the argument. That's never happened before.

[Zephyrs]

More specifically Sobotnik spouting reams of horse shit about North Korea.

[i]Totally[/i] the first time that one's happened.

[QUOTE=download;49495323]It stops the inevitable flood of refugees from materialising on their border and keeps a decent sized meatsheild between them and the US backed South.[/quote]

It's weird because you'd think China would want to maneuver North Korea into something far more compliant with their wishes. You'd think they'd have tried to indirectly fuck with the political situation or something.

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=Zephyrs;49498636]More specifically Sobotnik spouting reams of horse shit about North Korea.[/QUOTE]

you could mention examples of what exactly is horseshit.

i mean a few years back i was arguing that north korea wasn't going to escalate tensions back into a major war after some incident and everybody disagreed then (unsurprisingly nothing happened)

i've noticed in general that a lot of people here don't really know how north korea actually internally functions and what a lot of everyday life there is like - but i don't blame them since for a long time information on the country has been pretty poor and data collection fraught with difficulties.

the main problem in the end is that people are underestimating north korea more than anything else in terms of stability, especially when people have been talking about its imminent collapse and unstability for decades (again i don't really blame them since information used to be so limited and they were using sound logic at the time):

[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1499&dat=19940402&id=AnMaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=zCwEAAAAIBAJ&pg=3812,756813&hl=en[/url]
[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1454&dat=19950124&id=dwFZAAAAIBAJ&sjid=dhUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6905,3184756&hl=en[/url]
[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1129&dat=19960212&id=MdRRAAAAIBAJ&sjid=eW8DAAAAIBAJ&pg=2850,6884593&hl=en[/url]
[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1454&dat=19970905&id=SIE0AAAAIBAJ&sjid=zSYEAAAAIBAJ&pg=4424,1070171&hl=en[/url]
[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1914&dat=19970419&id=JNkgAAAAIBAJ&sjid=HWsFAAAAIBAJ&pg=4534,3122461&hl=en[/url]
[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1309&dat=20041005&id=sCwhAAAAIBAJ&sjid=RnoFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1630,3512950&hl=en[/url]
[url]https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=861&dat=20080123&id=spQ_AAAAIBAJ&sjid=AVYMAAAAIBAJ&pg=1298,1688868&hl=en[/url]
[url]http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/07/12/nothing-left-2[/url]
[url]http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/07/asia/kyung-lah-north-korean-defector-predictions/[/url]

i leave you with this:
[url]http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/the-long-history-of-wrongly-predicting-north-koreas-collapse/260769/[/url]

as unpalatable as the idea might sound, this abhorrently oppressive dictatorship is going to be around for a long time

[Zephyrs]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49498857]you could mention examples of what exactly is horseshit.[/QUOTE]

Nearly anything I'd say has already been covered in the thread, and others. You get a stick up your ass about several topics and just devolve into pure drivel, then subtly alter phrasings, or just selectively ignore certain things so you can pretend you weren't being positively fucking retarded. You aren't going to listen to what I or anyone else says regardless, and you'll be back in a week, or a couple of months, spouting the exact same shit, subtly altering your word choice in the exact same way. Your posting about this and several other topics is totally formulaic. Maybe you don't remember, but the two of us have [url=https://facepunch.com/converse.php?u=317202&u2=311819]danced this dance before.[/url]

Alternatively you'll slip with another pretending to be retarded post and get permabanned again.

Give me a good reason why I should bother playing your little game instead of calling you out for repeatedly twisting things around so you can claim you weren't being an idiot?

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=Zephyrs;49498915]Nearly anything I'd say has already been covered in the thread, and others. You get a stick up your ass about several topics and just devolve into pure drivel, then subtly alter phrasings, or just selectively ignore certain things so you can pretend you weren't being positively fucking retarded. You aren't going to listen to what I or anyone else says regardless, and you'll be back in a week, or a couple of months, spouting the exact same shit, subtly altering your word choice in the exact same way. Your posting about this and several other topics is totally formulaic. Maybe you don't remember, but the two of us have [url=https://facepunch.com/converse.php?u=317202&u2=311819]danced this dance before.[/url]

Alternatively you'll slip with another pretending to be retarded post and get permabanned again.

Give me a good reason why I should bother playing your little game instead of calling you out for repeatedly twisting things around so you can claim you weren't being an idiot?[/QUOTE]

you haven't mentioned any of the points being discussed at all. calling me insults isn't really helping here.

does some argument we had like 4 years ago matter?

[Zephyrs]

It matters when nothing meaningful about your posting style has changed since then. Substantively, it's every bit as terrible as it was 5 years ago. This thread alone has mountains of material that's been documented quite thoroughly, and as I already said, most of what I would say has already been said here and in the previous undecillion North Korea thread's. Hell some of the sources in this thread are even the same as the ones I'd reference. Your own posts shifted your argument around throughout the thread pretending like that's what you meant all along. This is absolutely textbook behavior from you.

North Korea is only "stable" in the sense that the surrounding areas don't want it to undergo a non structured collapse. The farmland area alone sinks a huge part of what you had to say. Yet, in classic fashion, you cited some source that has a vaguely related statistic that's tangentially related to some oddly specific part of the problem and then treated it as if it's universal to the entire problem. You do exactly this [i]all the time.[/i] And here we are as once again when you get called out on borderline shitposting, you complain that people are calling you out on it instead of addressing your arguments that were already addressed by other poster(s).

So again, why should I continue to play your little game over just calling it like I see it?

[Sobotnik]

[QUOTE=Zephyrs;49499051]North Korea is only "stable" in the sense that the surrounding areas don't want it to undergo a non structured collapse.[/quote]

except even if things went really south it still wouldn't really collapse. it's gone through severe famine, multiple leadership changes, and a whole myriad of other problems.

china can keep trade open, while international agencies ship in food, but ultimately it's not really impacting on the stability of the north korean state. whenever it has food or not doesn't matter because the regime is able to maintain itself regardless of the fact

[quote]The farmland area alone sinks a huge part of what you had to say. Yet, in classic fashion, you cited some source that has a vaguely related statistic that's tangentially related to some oddly specific part of the problem and then treated it as if it's universal to the entire problem.[/QUOTE]

i directly stated this with the argument:

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49491350]actually the case in the country now is that it's basically self-sufficient for staples now.[/quote]

[url]http://www.trust.org/item/20140326133720-v8fe0/[/url]

[quote]North Korea could, given the right conditions, become self-sufficient in cereals this year, after a sizable increase in harvests which has enabled it to reduce cereal imports by more than half from five years ago, a U.N. official said on Wednesday.[/quote]

i mean this is literally what the source is stating. staples/cereals are pretty much the same thing in north korea. the source explicitly states that increasing harvests has allowed it to approach self-sustainability in recent years for cereal production. it is indeed capable of becoming self-sufficient for staples because it already is almost there.

now this hasn't exactly happened yet, there's still a small gap. the case now however is that the deficit has been significantly reduced and that agricultural techniques in the country are still improving. it is part of an ongoing and consistent trend in the country. production is still increasing.

given what i said i do not see how this is exactly wrong or unrepresentative. at most you can fault me for saying "basically self-sufficient" is slightly different from "self-sufficient"