GOP freaking out over Kansas election, Pouring 100k into it, Ted Cruz to campaign there

[CatFodder]

Yeah their final forecast was something like Hillary 70% chance, Trump 30% chance, i.e. 'Trump winning is not unlikely'. They also repeatedly emphasised that an electoral college-popular vote split in Trump's favour was a distinct possibility and Trump's most likely winning outcome.

[Conely]

[QUOTE=Mitchd247;52097446]538 has a reputation for being 100% correct with predictions of 2016/2017 elections[/QUOTE]

well actually

[QUOTE=Cone;51637905][URL="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/"]and they specifically made a blog post about an electoral college split getting more and more likely, giving it like a 30% chance of happening in their forecast and basically explaining how Trump won.[/URL] if anything 538's model has been completely vindicated now[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Cone;51637937][URL="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-blue-state-polling-abyss/"]they also specifically made a blog post about the lack of good state-level polls, which in hindsight was particularly in states she lost[/URL]

idk why i remember all these articles[/QUOTE]

and even if you dislike them for some reason, we're still talking hard historical data here. Democrats performed unusually well in somewhere totally unexpected, which [I]historically[/I] has meant good things for them. maybe that's because Trump's approval rating really is around 30%, maybe it's not and he's actually super popular, but that's the most factual extrapolation for what these results mean.