The jobs Trump promised to "get back"? They no longer exist. - Polidicks

[QUOTE=Anderan;51346483]We're not going to just suddenly stop increasing automation either so may as well at least advocate the method that would not only help those people but anyone else wanting an education. I can't really provide an answer on how to help "the dumb ones" but as I said earlier new jobs appear all the time so how knows.[/QUOTE]I'm pretty buzzed and also tired so it's hard as fuck to focus without wanting to talk about irrelevant shit, but I don't think the new jobs that appear will be able to scoop up the unskilled flunkies. [QUOTE]Which is why I said if the automation happens at a reasonable pace. I'm not expecting a line worker to go out and be a businessman tomorrow.[/QUOTE][QUOTE]I wasn't denying that they exist and are in use. But despite their use all cashier jobs haven't suddenly up and vanished. Even if companies only begrudgingly still have them the jobs are still there.[/QUOTE][QUOTE]And you apparently live in a cyberpunk dystopia where automation is replacing jobs left right and center faster than jobs can grow despite most sectors showing (admittedly slow) growth with unemployment decreasing.[/QUOTE]lmao oh ho ho [I]I wish.[/I] Well, no, but it would be neat to go from this to that relatively overnight in theory but it would be pretty boring. Reality being what it is I think what's coming up is that admittedly small growth will reverse, and I don't trust unemployment to continue to decrease if we hit an economic recession that I believe is just over the hill ahead. From there it will be a slow and steady decrease in available jobs, an increase in unemployment, stagnation, and finally angry people doing angry things because they have nothing left to lose. Riots, civil unrest, skyrocketing crime, the whole works. [QUOTE]Yet people started arguing that automation was going to cause "tens of millions of people" to be out of work and this discussion sorta stems from that.[/QUOTE]Where the hell do you think truck, delivery, and taxi drivers are going to go when automated vehicles firmly replaces them? Do me a favor and go tally up all of those, stack them on top of bus drivers, mailmen, and train conductors (last two are iffy) and tell me if the unskilled and semi-skilled job growth of the next decade be able to accommodate them. That's what's immediate, and then add up all fast food cashiers and you tell me with a straight face that they'll be fine too. [QUOTE]Machines replaced a shitload of people even before the 90s. Why have 10 people do a job when you can just hire one guy on a machine? Even with increased automation you still need people to maintain the machines, design them, market them, ect.[/QUOTE]Machines displaced jobs but they didn't destroy them, which is what's going to happen because it's an entirely different operation process. One of the biggest offenders in use since, oh, WWII is the stamping machine that first needed a minimum of one worker and likely a whole team to operate. This changed to different methods of moving material from the line, into the machine, and out on to the line that put the workers somewhere else. (where the bottlenecks were, industrial engineering is a lot about managing those) Then real CNC automation started, but it still required an operator to supervise and control, but now we're seeing the emergence of machines that require no input at all. Well, aside from a single foreman to make sure the entire line is running good. Workers that got moved to quality control, traditionally personnel heavy, are being entirely replaced and [I]that[/I] is really dwindling the population of factories too. These jobs are evaporating without an equivalent replacement, this really hasn't happened [I]ever[/I] in human history because the educational requirements of the workforce was drastically different than it is now. When workers went into the factories they went from unskilled to unskilled, when the blacksmiths, farriers, and other shop-based metalworkers went to the machine shops they went from metal fabrication to metal fabrication. This is uncharted territory, referencing that one time back in the day when the war ended and everything was just fine [I]doesn't work.[/I] [QUOTE]See my edit, it added it almost immediately after I posted that because I knew without it what I said was bullshit. My family owns a farm and I grew up with it.[/QUOTE]Well I have to say it's neat that you admitted that, but I hope you understand when I say this is highly complicated and any serious look at it needs to go deep down to the very bottom of the issue. We agree on social nets but I think for entirely different reasons, I don't think you're really imagining the scale of this upset and how deep it permeates.

[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;51346553]It's a global market It's not too hard to find someone else to sell too[/QUOTE] It would be when you suddenly cut off one of your largest markets, plus it's not like the increase in automation will happen in a bubble.

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;51346088]Surprise, you're both European. See this part of my post: There are things wrong with automation, it does not play well with our current society being the biggest one. Without a necessary restructuring of our society it is an objectively bad direction to go. If you're looking forward to a nation armed with nuclear weapons devolving into civil war sparked by several tens of millions of people out of work, starving, and desperate then sure, I bet it seems super awesome. Or did you not think of that?[/QUOTE] you missed the part where he said basic income

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;51346557]Where the hell do you think truck, delivery, and taxi drivers are going to go when automated vehicles firmly replaces them? Do me a favor and go tally up all of those, stack them on top of bus drivers, mailmen, and train conductors (last two are iffy) and tell me if the unskilled and semi-skilled job growth of the next decade be able to accommodate them. That's what's immediate, and then add up all fast food cashiers and you tell me with a straight face that they'll be fine too.[/QUOTE] You're operating entirely on the assumption that all of these jobs will be replaced at once basically over night, or that they'll be replaced entirely. For what it's worth claims McDonald's to have no plans to replace all of their workers and most places looking into automated kiosks are doing so to augment their workforce because they can't afford to hire more workers. I know you posted the one article about the fully automated McDonalds and their plans to build more if it's successful but since McDonalds is a franchise who gets fully automated or not will probably be up to the person licensing the franchise. [B]EDIT[/B] Actually never mind because that article might be bullshit [url]http://www.snopes.com/media/notnews/robotmcdonalds.asp[/url] [url]http://www.businessinsider.com/what-self-serve-kiosks-at-mcdonalds-mean-for-cashiers-2015-8[/url] Also, self driving trucks aren't eliminating truck drivers. Instead they seem to be focused on controlling longer trucks but they still have a driver in the cab. [url]http://www.atbsshow.com/self-driving-trucks[/url] [quote]Daimler and Peloton Technology, California-based technology company, is championing the idea of creating truck pelotons that can further reduce the cost of fuel and haul more freight at a time. While a peloton or caravan of driverless trucks sounds pretty far-flung, technically it is quite feasible. The lead truck would have one driver in the cab who would lead the caravan of a dozen or so trucks along the highway. Peloton’s platooning technology connects two or more trucks via cloud technology and uses safety features like active braking, which is already found on many passenger cars today. The lead truck driver would control all the trucks, but drivers will still be needed to maneuver the highway exits, city streets, and backing up to the loading dock.[/quote] According to this site there's even a shortage of drivers, which as far as I can tell is due to not enough people wanting to do the job. Oh, and we won't even see the first automated truck on the market until about 2025.

[QUOTE=gufu;51346533]You know, JJF, if you put this much effort into threatening politicians with force, we just might be able to make the world a better place.[/QUOTE]There's a lot of things I want to say but I don't think I should say. You'd like them though, trust me. [QUOTE]But I do say that you point is legitimate. There could be two outcomes: A civil one where government will rework the economy to one of more equal footing as well as under actual control of the country (such as through UI) or one of self-destructive capitalist tendencies (such as luddite rebellions). I'd say that both will in fact happen, to different industrialized countries.[/QUOTE]You're probably right, and I think in certain aspects both might happen [I]simultaneously[/I] in this one. What we do need though is what's been discussed on this page and previous ones, consolidation of welfare systems, UBI, better access to education, and I actually suggested automation as a solution to tomorrow's economic situation. I think incentives for small businesses in conjunction with a functioning UBI with automation options for small businesses and self-employed would be the best way forward. That might make the future market extremely competitive since entry into it as a supplier would be low risk, or relatively low risk, and as evident with the black market the price stays steady if the number of suppliers of a commodity is high and the risk to entry isn't a significant barrier. Combined with delivery drones I think the number of people running a business out of their garage could really explode, give them the tools and the means and they'll show up like mushrooms after the rain. [QUOTE]JJF, you do need to chill, though.[/QUOTE]You're not my real dad you can't tell me what to do. [QUOTE=Anderan;51346559]It would be when you suddenly cut off one of your largest markets, plus it's not like the increase in automation will happen in a bubble.[/QUOTE]No of course not, but either way that barrier from here to "over there" and vice versa still costs money to cross. I think businesses can be competitive at home and abroad if we put the right systems in play to make this economic transition as painless and seamless as possible. Oh and remember those outdated processes I mentioned? They can go, we have technology [I]right now[/I] waiting for a chance to be implemented in several industries. Job elimination is a concern that's put a lot of things on hold, but we can absolutely cross that bridge immediately if we prepare for the future correctly.

[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51345088]The whole "UBI will increase costs!!" sounds a lot like "Minimum wage will increase costs!!"[/QUOTE] Minimum wage increases costs by increasing the production cost overhead on the back end. Meaning, when you have to pay your employees more, you have to raise prices to compensate. UBI isn't the same because it's not being provided by the employer, but it still affects the purchasing power of an average American. For example, look at housing costs. Housing prices are always tied to incomes in the local area and fluctuate according to both the desirability of the location and the economic strength of the surrounding region. In places where everyone is rich, houses are expensive. In places where they're poor, houses are cheap. This is irrespective of the actual cost of labor that went into building the house years or decades ago. The potential issue with UBI is that by giving everyone greater economic strength, it will raise prices- which isn't inherently a problem since now people might be better able to afford them even at the higher prices, but if people who depended on social welfare programs are now only allowed to get UBI, their buying power will remain the same while costs of living rise around them. Something similar happened with federal grants and education prices. Tuition costs are set to right at the limit of what families can afford. When the federal government started handing out grants to students, tuition prices rose, because now those students could simply afford more. I'm in favor of UBI but it's going to have some social and economic consequences that might be less than rosy.

[QUOTE=Swilly;51345981]I can't wait til I can't work anymore and everyone thinks they have something important to say. Fuck automation.[/QUOTE] Well said.

[QUOTE=Zang-Pog;51346029]You're not locked to one profession for your entire life, if automation eventually replaces you then it's time to learn something else. Fuck people who think automation is the end of the world, really[/QUOTE] Its not the end pf the world, but dont kid yourself into thinking that thousands of jobs will be lost but there will be somewhere else for them to go easily

[QUOTE=Zang-Pog;51346140] I'm aware the situation in the US isn't great and yes, a lot of things need to change but to be so against automation is ridiculous in my eyes. [B]Does half of the country work jobs that automation can easily replace?[/B] I'd like to see something more than just your word on it[/QUOTE] [IMG]https://puu.sh/sdMIM.png[/IMG] [url]http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state[/url] Every single one of these jobs aside from software engineer machines are currently capable of doing with varying degrees of efficiency over humans. We have 324,980,563 citizens. Hell your fucking phone can replace a secretary. There are 4 homeless people on my block alone.

If it makes anyone feel better, self-driving cars probably won't be ubiquitous until you're dead. There's far too much to work on at this point to even worry about Truck Drivers being phased out. The closest we have outside of closed, controlled experiments is Tesla's Autopilot which is unreliable

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51348560]If it makes anyone feel better, self-driving cars probably won't be ubiquitous until you're dead. There's far too much to work on at this point to even worry about Truck Drivers being phased out. The closest we have outside of closed, controlled experiments is Tesla's Autopilot which is unreliable[/QUOTE] Uber’s Self-Driving Truck Makes Its First Delivery: 50,000 Beers [url]https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-self-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers/[/url]:smug:

[QUOTE=shad0w440;51348595]Uber’s Self-Driving Truck Makes Its First Delivery: 50,000 Beers [url]https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-self-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers/[/url]:smug:[/QUOTE] A single 240 mile round trip, that's what I mean by experiments. It would also require companies to replace or retrofit fleets of trucks, which for now is prohibitively expensive.

It is impossible to have less than like 3% unemployment

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51349157]A single 240 mile round trip, that's what I mean by experiments. It would also require companies to replace or retrofit fleets of trucks, which for now is prohibitively expensive.[/QUOTE] Nah, they can just adapt new technology as their trucks are naturally replaced. On average trucks are replaced every 5 years, so if technology became available now, first-rate operators would run completely automated service in that time.

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51349157]A single 240 mile round trip, that's what I mean by experiments. It would also require companies to replace or retrofit fleets of trucks, which for now is prohibitively expensive.[/QUOTE] With the way autonomous driving is going, I'd be surprised if autonomous trucks didn't become commonplace in the next ten years or so. Truck fleets are switched out as they break down (an ongoing cost) - how often do they do a complete turnaround? Probably more often than you think, trucks drive pretty far compared to Average Joe's commute car.

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51349157]A single 240 mile round trip, that's what I mean by experiments. It would also require companies to replace or retrofit fleets of trucks, which for now is prohibitively expensive.[/QUOTE]lmao no it isn't, do you even understand the amount of money being moved by these companies and the wage/salary of truckers? [I]Have you dealt with truckers?[/I] People who gravitate toward that field are interesting folks, but I bet a lot of supervisors wouldn't have gray hair if they didn't have to deal with angry old men who more than likely have a problem with authority. Once it's viable, and it will be [I]very[/I] soon, the CDL holder will be largely unemployed.

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51348560]If it makes anyone feel better, self-driving cars probably won't be ubiquitous until you're dead.[/QUOTE] If you're planning to die within 10-20 years, sure

[QUOTE=Rixxz2;51349770]If you're planning to die within 10-20 years, sure[/QUOTE]Earlier than that, the actual practical research into the technology is quite fresh and if we're doing road tests already it's not going to be much longer than a decade at the most. [editline]10th November 2016[/editline] Long distance road tests even, on European roads.

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51349157]A single 240 mile round trip, that's what I mean by experiments. It would also require companies to replace or retrofit fleets of trucks, which for now is prohibitively expensive.[/QUOTE] Google says the cost of a new cab is $130k-180k, and the median wages of a truck driver are $40k/yr. Even if a self-driving cab ends up costing $200-300k, with the driver's wage eliminated it'll fully pay for itself within 5-8 years- and that's assuming you just throw out the old cab rather than sell it off or replace a worn-out cab. And that's not even mentioning the efficiency improvements you get from not having a driver who needs to take breaks or sleep. If an average truck has 8 hours of driver-related down time per day, then by switching to self-driving trucks they can do the same amount of work with 2/3 the fleet. People are expensive. Automation is going to kick them out faster than you might think.

So what about the "self driving trucks" that are actually just controlling longer rigs with a person still in the front truck? [url]http://www.atbsshow.com/self-driving-trucks[/url]

[QUOTE=Anderan;51350197]So what about the "self driving trucks" that are actually just controlling longer rigs with a person still in the front truck? [url]http://www.atbsshow.com/self-driving-trucks[/url][/QUOTE]Maybe that would have a place for independent drivers but I can't imagine anyone who owns a fleet would want to give up the potential profits from complete automation. Trucks could be on the road for days straight, and there wouldn't be anyone to deal with/pay.

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;51350221]Maybe that would have a place for independent drivers but I can't imagine anyone who owns a fleet would want to give up the potential profits from complete automation. Trucks could be on the road for days straight, and there wouldn't be anyone to deal with/pay.[/QUOTE] [url]https://www.wired.com/2015/05/worlds-first-self-driving-semi-truck-hits-road/[/url] These are the only kinds of self driving semis I can even find. [editline]10th November 2016[/editline] Even the cross european test of "self driving" semis used these same types of semis [url]https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/07/convoy-self-driving-trucks-completes-first-european-cross-border-trip[/url] Literally every single instance I can find of someone testing "self driving" tucks are all this "automated only on highways" type of trucks.

The more I think about it the more I wonder just exactly how any current economic model, especially capitalism, will manage to function the more technology advances and the more jobs go away forever A society that values your worth by your occupation seems like it would crumble when there arent enough sustainable occupations to go around

[QUOTE=Duck M.;51350235]The more I think about it the more I wonder just exactly how any current economic model, especially capitalism, will manage to function the more technology advances and the more jobs go away forever A society that values your worth by your occupation seems like it would crumble when there arent enough sustainable occupations to go around[/QUOTE] I can see the artistic and entertainment media sectors getting more people. A machine can do an assembly line and hard work for physical jobs; a machine can't create a video game, or film a movie. In a non-literal sense mind you.

[QUOTE=RikohZX;51350270]I can see the artistic and entertainment media sectors getting more people. A machine can do an assembly line and hard work for physical jobs; a machine can't create a video game, or film a movie. In a non-literal sense mind you.[/QUOTE] i think it'd be fricking amazing if, way down the line, we have a world where nearly everyone is doing something creative, and most mindless labour is automated pretty much the best use of the human races' brainpower i can think of

[QUOTE=RikohZX;51350270]I can see the artistic and entertainment media sectors getting more people. A machine can do an assembly line and hard work for physical jobs; a machine can't create a video game, or film a movie. In a non-literal sense mind you.[/QUOTE] Very true, but you have to consider the value that those already pose in a society that culturally doesnt value the liberal arts. How much can a capitalist country that laughs at those who dont major in conveyor-belt STEM courses improve in the treatment of those who dont find fulfillment or satisfaction in the rat race? Because personally, I feel that the primary desire for capital and goods that consumerism and capitalism trend towards will inevitably trend towards this sort of attitude.

[QUOTE=AugustBurnsRed;51349157]A single 240 mile round trip, that's what I mean by experiments. It would also require companies to replace or retrofit fleets of trucks, which for now is prohibitively expensive.[/QUOTE] Based on insurance costs alone, they'll save so much by doing that. They will find it very valuable

[QUOTE=RikohZX;51350270]I can see the artistic and entertainment media sectors getting more people. A machine can do an assembly line and hard work for physical jobs; a machine can't create a video game, or film a movie. In a non-literal sense mind you.[/QUOTE] A machine can replace a lot of the initiators in the creative industry however. Currently it's possible for various media fields to not have to come up with ideas themselves. They can use machines, computer algorithms designed to analyse what's hot, what's not and spit out a pretty decent idea for a safe money maker. All through analysis of purchasing trends and social media (we're seeing a resurgence in 20-minutes-into-the-future shooters right now because that theme took off again on social media with all these discussion about how we're entering a cyberpunk future now with all the cyber espionage and warfare going on for example, maybe not 100% accurate, but as an example I think it's fine). Generation of game assets and mechanics is still something humans would have to do. Manipulating the cameras and filling acting roles is something humans would have to do too. But machines can handle creative work for us now by making educated guesses on what we'd like to see as a population.

[QUOTE=hexpunK;51350322]A machine can replace a lot of the initiators in the creative industry however. Currently it's possible for various media fields to not have to come up with ideas themselves. They can use machines, computer algorithms designed to analyse what's hot, what's not and spit out a pretty decent idea for a safe money maker. All through analysis of purchasing trends and social media (we're seeing a resurgence in 20-minutes-into-the-future shooters right now because that theme took off again on social media with all these discussion about how we're entering a cyberpunk future now with all the cyber espionage and warfare going on for example, maybe not 100% accurate, but as an example I think it's fine). Generation of game assets and mechanics is still something humans would have to do. Manipulating the cameras and filling acting roles is something humans would have to do too. But machines can handle creative work for us now by making educated guesses on what we'd like to see as a population.[/QUOTE] Actually, arent many cameras in sports currently transitioning to being automated? I feel like at the very least basic camera manipulation that doesnt fall on the creative cinematography spectrum will be done by robots in the very near future.

[QUOTE=Duck M.;51350352]Actually, arent many cameras in sports currently transitioning to being automated? I feel like at the very least basic camera manipulation that doesnt fall on the creative cinematography spectrum will be done by robots in the very near future.[/QUOTE] Ehh, sports is an edge case where automating the camera isn't actually hard. Image recognition algorithms can generally pick out the ball in high speed footage fairly well now. So it's not hard to follow a football match, or a tennis match for example. Films and TV shows require some kind of intuition to get the angles right, which computers can't emulate right now.