Stephen Hawking: Humanity won't last longer than 1000 years on Earth.
140 replies, posted
[QUOTE=The Rifleman;51385450]With Elon and SpaceX eyeing mars, and it will happen, im not too worried about the survival of mankind, but Earths time is numbered[/QUOTE]LOL please, Earth isn't going anywhere, it's been through MUCH MUCH worse than humanity, and it's still here.
Now us on the other hand.
Seems like civilization as we know it is probably going to collapse in the next few centuries, but humanity is intelligent enough that it will probably last far longer.
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;51385598]That said I dunno why Stephen Hawkins opinion on the matter is that important, hes a theoretical physicist and knows his shit in that field but that doesn't mean he knows everything about everything.[/QUOTE]
This
I think he forgot to subtract a few zeros.
[QUOTE=Dr.Critic;51385398]You mean the same species that elected someone last week that thinks global warming is a chinese hoax and poses a serious threat to a globally signed treaty on fighting it despite overwhelming scientific consensus and "warmest year in known history" being repeated like a broken record[/QUOTE]
Yes, Americans have elected Trump, Britain chose Brexit. Clearly, humanity is finished, there's no doubt now.
Hawking has been saying stuff like that for quite a while, I guess he just likes preaching doom every once in a while - can't blame a man in his position, with his intellect and credentials, for having some small weaknesses. I think we'll be fine. I mean, shit will hit the fan for sure, but it's not going to finish us off, for some reason I'm pretty optimistic in mankind's abilities to get our shit together and not die. And even if I'm wrong, well, I'll be long dead by then so fuck it.
[QUOTE=Turnips5;51385379]I'm gonna say 50[/QUOTE]
Humanity goes Extinct 2066, I'll Toxx to that.
Escape clause: I staple my (then)70 year old scrotum to the wall.
[QUOTE=gudman;51386249]Yes, Americans have elected Trump, Britain chose Brexit. Clearly, humanity is finished, there's no doubt now.
Hawking has been saying stuff like that for quite a while, I guess he just likes preaching doom every once in a while - can't blame a man in his position, with his intellect and credentials, for having some small weaknesses. I think we'll be fine. I mean, shit will hit the fan for sure, but it's not going to finish us off, for some reason I'm pretty optimistic in mankind's abilities to get our shit together and not die. And even if I'm wrong, well, I'll be long dead by then so fuck it.[/QUOTE]
I don't even think Trump, Brexit, any of that can really harm us more than we already have. 4 years of regressive climate change ideals are not going to be the nail in the coffin. Over time we will slowly overpopulate the planet, unless something happens that limits the ever increasing human population. Humanity's hunger for more land, more power, and the ever increasing population will inevitably lead to us destroying everything that we rely on. Sure we can have massive centers that only make food. But at some point there will be a massive resource war, or a cataclysmic event, and humanity will just not be able to recover. It probably won't be for thousands of years more than Stephen Hawking is predicting, but it will happen. Some things we are doing today definitely aren't helping humanity in the long run.
[QUOTE=Atlascore;51386207]"Go back to the industrial revolution" What the fuck is that even supposed to mean? We're a more industrialized society than ever before, and we're going to see even more industrialization over the next century, I mean fuck, China hasn't even finished industrializing yet, they've still got hundreds of millions of people to bring into the modern world. India is rapidly industrializing. South East Asia and Africa are both going to become fully industrialized within the century.
Our environment is totally fucked, even more so when those recently industrialized countries gain their own middle and upper classes, both of which are going to demand the same luxuries we have here in the West.[/QUOTE]
Bear in mind that we're exporting cleaner tech to those countries, something China is already exploring as it'll give them leverage and influence over the 3rd world. I'd put my money on pragmatism any day of the week.
I think you guys seem to forget that we don't invest much into space exactly because we don't have a desperate need to go there. Now when this need arises I think with all the technology we would have its going to be a fast leap forward. I mean, we managed to walk the path from primitive ww2 German rockets to full scale space vessels capable of interplanetary travels in less than 30 years. All we need is motivation.
[QUOTE=antianan;51386411]I think you guys seem to forget that we don't invest much into space exactly because we don't have a desperate need to go there. Now when this need arises I think with all the technology we would have its going to be a fast leap forward. I mean, we managed to walk the path from primitive ww2 German rockets to full scale space vessels capable of interplanetary travels in less than 30 years. All we need is motivation.[/QUOTE]
The thing is, we need to keep developing that technology, without use, technological knowledge is forgotten, in many ways we begin to actually move backwards. For example, it would be hard pressed to find anyone in this world who still can make stone monuments as well as the Egyptians. It's certainly not aliens that helped with that, we just forgot how to do it as a collective for a long time.
In the words of the generations before me that fucked the world up
Not my problem, I'll be dead soon anyway.
[Editline]a [/editline]
That said, I want a Tesla when they become affordable and I recycle when I see a bin for it, and I've got 40 hours of community service to do per semester for my scholarship.
So really, not my problem, I'm probably doing more than the average citizen does by a longshot
[QUOTE=Atlascore;51386207]"Go back to the industrial revolution" What the fuck is that even supposed to mean? We're a more industrialized society than ever before, and we're going to see even more industrialization over the next century, I mean fuck, China hasn't even finished industrializing yet, they've still got hundreds of millions of people to bring into the modern world. India is rapidly industrializing. South East Asia and Africa are both going to become fully industrialized within the century.
Our environment is totally fucked, even more so when those recently industrialized countries gain their own middle and upper classes, both of which are going to demand the same luxuries we have here in the West.[/QUOTE]
That's not what I meant at all. Human impact on the environment during/immediately after the industrial revolution, if I remember my shit correctly, was way bigger than it is now.
I guess even Stephen Hawking got a little pessimistic when Trump won.
Yeah or ecosystem is fucked, we need to go to another planet with no ecosystem :downs:
Like I get that spreading to other planets increases the species survivability but the prospects on Mars are much bleaker than on earth
[QUOTE=Mort Stroodle;51386848]Yeah or ecosystem is fucked, we need to go to another planet with no ecosystem :downs:
Like I get that spreading to other planets increases the species survivability but the prospects on Mars are much bleaker than on earth[/QUOTE]
[I]
technology[/I]
[QUOTE=The mouse;51385382]I think he's underestimating the ability of Mankind to survive and adapt. The ability to adapt is the reason we've survived the last 10,000 or so years, I fail to see why we couldn't last well over 1,000 years.[/QUOTE]
Overall those 10'000 years were happening at the evolutionary speed of nature tho. Humanity's progression of technology has insanely accelerated within the last couple hundred years, and with it new and powerful ways for screwing ourselves over.
Modern genetics are only ~150 years old and now we're already worrying about genetically engineered viruses. [url="https://xkcd.com/1732/"]This[/url] XKCD comic's been making the rounds lately to remind everyone how seriously the global temperature has spiked in the last 100 years. Atomic bombs have only been around for about 80 years.
If those things had been around for 10'000 years already, you'd have a point, but this lineup of catastrophe potential is unprecedented and if we keep up this pace, it's only gonna grow faster and faster from now on.
i really don't want to know, thoughts about this just makes me sleepless
I find it impossible by now to exterminate the human race without destroying the planet.
Hell in some of the most extreme cases I can think of, like if oxygen levels dropped critically low or radiation levels increased, I still see ways of us to survive.
[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;51386773]I guess even Stephen Hawking got a little pessimistic when Trump won.[/QUOTE]
I think it may have happened to everyone not wearing rose-tinted glasses.
[QUOTE=Tools;51387239]I find it impossible by now to exterminate the human race without destroying the planet.
Hell in some of the most extreme cases I can think of, like if oxygen levels dropped critically low or radiation levels increased, I still see ways of us to survive.[/QUOTE]
A better future - Undergound!
We have the technology right now to build vaults or other structures that can hold a stable population. All we need is some system to enforce population control and we can have some survivors. How long they'd last is uncertain, as humans have a marvelous ability to fuck shit up beyond imagination.
The last time humanity faced extinction, we were reduced to around 1000 breeding pairs in a localized area.
If humanity faces it this time, the chances of that happening again are pretty low and I feel fairly certain we wouldn't survive despite all the ideas we have that we're infinitely adaptable. We're not.
[QUOTE=Blizzerd;51385385]Il bet good money against that... people are perhaps the most resourceful species on this planet and have survived far worse odds.[/QUOTE]
No we haven't. The volcanic and and cosmic incidents of the past always left habitable land somewhere that could be simply managed. Global warming isn't even kind of the same issue, and is entirely and globally systemic. The clock is ticking and we are actively speeding it up every day.
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;51387351]The last time humanity faced extinction, we were reduced to around 1000 breeding pairs in a localized area.
If humanity faces it this time, the chances of that happening again are pretty low and I feel fairly certain we wouldn't survive despite all the ideas we have that we're infinitely adaptable. We're not.
[/QUOTE]
Except that it's only a pretty far fetched theory(not the bottleneck itself, the Toba eruption explanation). But anyway, the difference is that today's humanity is much less dependent on nature than ever before and can survive some catastrophic events that almost certainly would have killed the entire mankind some centuries ago.
At some point in time people are going to tell the current system of government to screw off and elect councils to govern law. We also have this ability to think further into the future. Doomsayers, no matter how intelligent they are, are still doomsayers.
"Mass extinction is a widespread and rapid decrease in the biodiversity on Earth" - wikipedia
Keep in mind we are currently witnessing the Holocene extinction event, meaning "Exinctions have occurred at over 1000 times the background extinction rate since 1900. The mass extinction is considered a result of human activity" - wikipedia
So I don't think it's far fetched at all that this will continue and potentitially get much MUCH worse. AFAIK much of the fear is based on Ocean life and cateclysmic events that can occur, amid rising water acidification/temperature. Who knows if we'll cause a massive ocean death with results in massive human death.
Humans might find a way to save some of us, but maybe not the vast majority of us.
[url]http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-sixth-extinction-kolbert-animals-conservation-science-world/[/url]
[QUOTE=Crumpet;51386983][I]
technology[/I][/QUOTE]
Any technology that can help make Mars habitable will either A. (The overwhelming likely option) Not be able to make Mars as habitable as earth or B. Be usable on earth anyways.
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;51387351]The last time humanity faced extinction, we were reduced to around 1000 breeding pairs in a localized area.
If humanity faces it this time, the chances of that happening again are pretty low and I feel fairly certain we wouldn't survive despite all the ideas we have that we're infinitely adaptable. We're not.[/QUOTE]
Nothing short of a fucking huge meteor strike has the capacity to rapidly reduce humanity's numbers that drastically now. Humans are not infinitely adaptable, but we're [b]extremely[/b] adaptable, possibly the most adaptable species on this planet thanks to the ability to shape the environment around us to extents unmatched by any other.
If humanity is to go extinct, it'll take hundreds and hundreds of years of slow decline.
[QUOTE=antianan;51387603]Except that it's only a pretty far fetched theory(not the bottleneck itself, the Toba eruption explanation). But anyway, the difference is that today's humanity is much less dependent on nature than ever before and can survive some catastrophic events that almost certainly would have killed the entire mankind some centuries ago.[/QUOTE]
We rely on experts for the bulk of our technology, and advancements. Should those experts die, what are the laymen left behind supposed to do? The issue with saying technology saves us implies an understanding of technology that almost no one has.
I understand how a transistor works, but could I build one? No way, and ultimately technology that could save us from such things would require such things as well and that's a big leap for me.
[QUOTE=Megadave;51385419]It will be interesting to see what lifeforms will form after humanity has long gone[/QUOTE]
what are you?
[QUOTE=gudman;51388032]Nothing short of a fucking huge meteor strike has the capacity to rapidly reduce humanity's numbers that drastically now. Humans are not infinitely adaptable, but we're [b]extremely[/b] adaptable, possibly the most adaptable species on this planet thanks to the ability to shape the environment around us to extents unmatched by any other.
If humanity is to go extinct, it'll take hundreds and hundreds of years of slow decline.[/QUOTE]
I don't know if that's true though?
I mean a giant meteor strike is one option, but we also have a multitude of "Super Volcanoes" on earth that could rapidly, and seriously redefine the concept of "life" on earth, especially for people. It sure would take a few years of decline to reduce the population that much though, you do have a point there, but that's not much of a security blanket in my eyes.
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