• 538 releases 2018 House forecast.
    58 replies, posted
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1030136030945595397?s=19 Nate no
It's an oddly good feeling that my district (3rd New Jersey) is up for grabs. I'm moving soon but I'll hopefully have time to help tip the vote here before I peace out.
You could absentee vote.
How often does it update?
oh hey! my state! That's me up in huntsville. It sucks ass here.
Same, A year or two ago I saw a thing listing AL-2, as a potential swing, went R in 2016 by only 20k votes. But 538 gives it 39/40 R. The incumbent had the audacity to criticize Trump, which forced the GOP primary into a runoff, hope it does D.
Usually updates whenever a poll comes out from a list of polls they use.
The thing I hate about predictions that have massive % chances is that people see that and go "Well, I don't need to go vote, its already going to go my way"
Hopefully no one will do that after being subjected to a year and a half of Trump.
You say that, but I really don't trust people not to.
Honestly if I saw a poll where the person I favored had a huge lead, it would motivate me more if the opponent was a huge asshole, to crush them even more. Can't force voting like in Australia since people will scream about how you're taking away their freedom not to vote. (and not huge on that anyway, I'd prefer a reward over a punishment to increase turnout)
My district has a 99 out of 100 chance to stay blue. My whole state is blue with the same odds except one district with 29 out of 30. I know "every vote matters" but I seriously see no reason for me to change my voter registration from independent if the people I'd vote for are going to win anyways.
...Why would you need to change your registration? An independent voter can still vote Democrat in the election.
Closed primaries and stuff are the main reason people bounce around like this. I have to swap between Independent and Democrat in Florida.
I've played enough XCOM to know that's not a sure thing.
And some people can tell the difference but want to mislead people by muddying the waters.
Or have never played a single game of xcom and don't know how wrong a percentage can be
I guess this is why casinos are so lucrative.
we should mandate people playing it before they can access information on percentage chances of victory
If there's one thing xcom has taught me it's that 99% is not 100%
Something I noticed, the district Conor Lamb won by only a few hundred votes a few months ago now has a 92.3% chance of getting reelected, so that's nice.
Xcom has shown that occasionally even displayed 100% isn't 100%
his district was remapped and is now considerably more democrat leaning, whereas his opponent is sadly running in a district that is much more republican leaning (normally anyways)
Oh yeah Pennsylvania redistricted. I looked and Lamb's opponent actually lost the primary for the 18th district Lamb won, reshaped some, and will swap names with Lamb's new 14th.
just the redistricting in Penn alone greatly boosted their chances as a lot of cracked districts got evened out and a few packed districts got broken up
Dems are surgingthe past few days, they just hit 80% chance to take the House
You're adorable.
aaaaaand the senate forecast is out! 2018 Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight about 1/3 for dems to take it. not too bad, it's a really bad map.
There's been pretty yuge bumps for Dems in both chambers' elections recently, Dems have an 82.9% chance of taking the House.
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