Gallup: Republican Party favorability highest since 2011 - Polidicks

I think people fail to forget that the US is majority a conservative leaning nation. We tend to only elect Democrats when the economy is crashing. When the economy is in good shape, people tend to vote on other issues, like social issues which most of the country happens to be conservative leaning in. There is of course all the 'fake news' and propaganda by various media organizations over the years, but I'd be rich if I had a dollar every time someone here on FP mentioned how "America's left is only center-right to the rest of the world".

How is that relevant. Id say the conclusion of the poll is more disappointing than just "theres more conservatives than liberals" The republican party as it currently is is actively destructive. These results only show how fucked the situation is.

Its relevant because so long as the economy is doing well, right leaning centrists will vote for the GOP and give them an edge.

Problem is that I (and a few other people apparently) were dumb enough to directly link chance of winning to the public vote / the electoral college bit. Yes I am admitting I was an idiot in considering those interchangeable but it certainly didn't help that if someone had even the slightest interaction with any news sources oncesoever they'd have experienced the media's hype-the-ever-living-fuck-out-of-Clinton polling figures and the Trump scandals to the point where it seemed as if those two could be essentially made interchangeable. 538 didn't which is good, but a lot of places like the Washington post were all but claiming that at points. See response 6. Also, don't put ideas in my mouth. I think me saying I lost respect for them is probably the wrong word for it, I think it'd be more accurate for me to say that I learned not to put so much stock into those figures. I think in general re-looking (after my post last night) into some of the figures given out in terms of chance to win and predicted electoral votes and things like that, 538 was probably more or less the best places to look. I suspect most places in terms of just general predictions may have fallen to the clinton polling / atmosphere effect*. I'll say though that if it had been the other way around win wise that their electoral votes predictions would have been really really good as they predicted a 302 - 235 split for clinton / trump but it came out to 232-306 which is nearly exactly that, but in reverse. *I don't even begin to know where to find data or links or anything like that for this, but I have a hypothesis that there was some inherent bias that wasn't apparently obvious in the way polling was conducted for the 2016 election that may or may not have been related to the slew of scandals and outrage @ trump in the months just before election day. This isn't a unique or new hypothesis by any meaning of the word. You're right, it was a silly idea and I was dumb enough to buy into it. See response 1. 30% chance to win is a shitty figure when you have a lot to lose and a lot to gain. If it was a lottery where it costs like $10 (which in this scenario is more or less nothing) to get in and you have a 30% chance to win the hundred million dollar prize that'd be great since you'd only be out $10 if you lost but when you're talking about the literal presidency where losing means your political plans are at least half way fucked for at least the next 4 years, that's a terrible percent chance to win. I don't gamble generally speaking, but legit thanks for not being a snark. See my thoughts on the percent chance in response 6.

Here's how to explain this to you MrFallz. Go play Xcom. Take enough 99% shots, and you'll miss. If you have my luck, you'll miss more of your 99% shots than you do of 60% shots. The statistics from 538 were right on the money for Trump. It's just that we drew the short straw.

lol our differences as citizens of the same are irreconcilable via political and social means, and we are heading towards civil war.

Y'know, this is actually one of the biggest wins the GOP has pulled off in recent years Let it never be forgotten that Tinyhands won the election via the electoral college, by eighty thousand votes within three states The polls weren't nearly as wrong as people remember them being. Tinyhands lost the popular vote by three million, and I shouldn't have to source that claim, because I'm pretty sure we all remember how poorly he reacted to that loss. How the news was filled with cries of voter fraud and the 'three million illegals'. He only really stopped whinging about losing the popular vote a few months ago That isn't a sweeping victory by any stretch of the imagination. That isn't Clinton getting hit by an orbital strike. That is barely snatching victory from the jaws defeat using a deeply and deliberately broken part of the United States' political system. That's barely even a small city's worth of people in a country of three hundred million Don't blame the polls for being wrong, blame the DNC for having their heads so far up their own asses they forgot the electoral college is how Republicans always win elections and have spent the last few decades making sure their stronghold states have the most powerful EC votes

But it being "a shitty figure when you have a lot to lose and a lot to gain" has nothing to do with how correct or wrong the figure is??? It's not outside the bounds of reason to presume that someone would win with a 30% chance of victory. In a lot of games, if a boss has a 30% chance of dropping something I consider that a rather good chance. We're not talking about whether the odds are worth taking at a 30% chance of victory with the cost of a presidential campaign being the collateral, we already know that those odds were taken.