US Election Results 2018 - A blue wave in a sea of piss - Polidicks

I don't understand what the 538 forecast is doing? It now says the GOP will win the House but I don't understand why

That's normal, the blue votes come from the border region where a lot of Hispanic citizens live, and the major cities. Most of the state is rural, and vast areas are sparsely populated.

Even if O'Rourke ends up winning the democratic party in Texas is really weak.

Best demonstrated by the fact that, despite the large areas shown here, Beto is presently at 50.1% at 1% of votes counted.

Pack it up, boys, it's over. Fivethirtyeight is never wrong.

If Texas turns blue in the final election results for house or senate. OR Dems take the senate, I will stand on a street corner where I live for 12 hours with a hand made sign saying "You did it, Dems!" on a livestream (no guarantees I'll be able to make it work properly my phone is a piece of shit). Toxx.

https://vgy.me/uRrPCp.png uh guys?

I think that model may be a wee bit overaggressive. It had them +95% earlier.

guys i'm nervous someone hold me

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/elections/ct-met-illinois-election-day-live-updates-20181106-story.html Voter turnout in the city of Chicago is expected to reach a level not seen during any recent midterm election, according to preliminary statistics from the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. Slightly more than 48 percent of registered voters had cast ballots as of 5 p.m., or some 723,000 voters. Polling places are beginning to pick up the evening rush, to a point where an estimated 45,000 voters were casting ballots each hour at around 4 p.m.“I think it’s safe to say we’re going to get another 90,000 voters, which will put us over 800,000. So we’re looking at anywhere from 800,000 to 830,000 voters. That’s kind of the strong turnout that we expected,” city board spokesman Jim Allen said. That total does not include provisional ballots and late-arriving mail ballots. I also wanted to point out if no one has yet our Libertarian candidate for governor was named Benjamin Adam Winderweedle until June of this year, which he then changed to Grayson Jackson, with a nickname of "Kash"

back up to 4 in 7 for dems this is nerve-wracking

back up to 4 in 7, chillax

P. sure it's projecting over early results and the algorithm is fucking up due to lack of representative data. Gotta remember, the early-reporting polling places are middle-of-nowhere cousin-fucking towns.

Near as I can tell, the last update for the interactives seems to be from 6 PM ET

If that forecast has massive swings, that's just bad for people's hearts.

I swear 538 is just fucking with us.

democrats have now gained 1 seat, republicans lost 1 seat.

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1059977640772337666 I can't take this, guys.

this swinging back and forward is fucking with me https://vgy.me/MTB2po.png

https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/200485/161c5270-608c-4e73-9ac4-e7cc5160a0b9/image.png Random guy on reddit's opinion, it makes me feel better so I'm gonna believe it. 538 is a blessing and a curse.

r u s s i a

voted bright and early before work this morning. <3 https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/240018/2b8d10a0-a2d3-4575-abe3-621ae0926ee6/IMG_6679.JPG

Aight I'm closing my 538 tab cus that's just silly

https://youtu.be/pvHba1WE8gI watching on this

Then stop looking at it. Its going to just do that, look at results or just wait a bit. The forecast is very obviously broken and basically just swinging wildly and isn't going to be a useful forecast at all until maybe after half way through. And thats a serious maybe.

Swear to god every time we have an election, Facepunchers who don't know how vote-counting works panic. The smaller (more rural) the town, the faster it is to count votes. The faster you count votes, the faster you can report. This gives an early bias to traditionally conservative communities, while the bigger polling places in traditionally blue urban areas report later because they have a lot more votes to count.

If dems do take the house, how much can they do to halt Trump's agenda?

A bunch of really red states dropped their election results. That shouldn't have tilted things much because 538 is supposedly using a bayesian model so "heavy red district goes red" shouldn't cause a big update, but they did mention they'd tuned it to be more aggressive than in 2016.

Ah, gotcha. Probably the aneurysm explanation as above then.

Didn't vote today, just looking to see people get angry. My prediction for people getting angry is 100%.