US Election Results 2018 - A blue wave in a sea of piss
999 replies, posted
Then stop looking at it. Its going to just do that, look at results or just wait a bit. The forecast is very obviously broken and basically just swinging wildly and isn't going to be a useful forecast at all until maybe after half way through. And thats a serious maybe.
Swear to god every time we have an election, Facepunchers who don't know how vote-counting works panic.
The smaller (more rural) the town, the faster it is to count votes. The faster you count votes, the faster you can report. This gives an early bias to traditionally conservative communities, while the bigger polling places in traditionally blue urban areas report later because they have a lot more votes to count.
If dems do take the house, how much can they do to halt Trump's agenda?
A bunch of really red states dropped their election results. That shouldn't have tilted things much because 538 is supposedly using a bayesian model so "heavy red district goes red" shouldn't cause a big update, but they did mention they'd tuned it to be more aggressive than in 2016.
Ah, gotcha. Probably the aneurysm explanation as above then.
Didn't vote today, just looking to see people get angry.
My prediction for people getting angry is 100%.
With the House they'll stop Obamacare repeals and tax cuts, and can investigate Trump with subpoena power. The Senate can block Trump's nominees for things as well as what the House can do.
Owning the libs by ignoring my own constitutional rights.
why didn't you vote tho
Can you even vote?
Hurry! Smurfy! Toxx it!
It basically kills anything that flat-out requires legislation. Obamacare would be safe. It would seriously hamper anything that can be defunded. It wouldn't do much to stop executive-branch-only shit, unfortunately, like the camps, but they might be able to fight it anyways.
During the Obama years, they made the mistake of letting any committee chair issue unilateral subpoenas. The GOP used that for all their stabs at manufacturing scandals, but they never removed it so it could be a potent PR tool. Force an issue into the public consciousness and maybe they'll be able to force it through the Senate, if there's enough outrage.
You may have noticed that our
real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being
too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely
Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent
likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to
clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
okay, everyone chill
I know how it works, but 538 never went back and forward like this before. Tho, if they made it more aggressive, then, okay, seems fine then.
538 swings like crazy every election cycle, this happens every 2 years and people are still shocked by it
Sad Texas might stay red. But not unexpected
Polls haven't closed anywhere in the midwest or west of us afaik. Too early to call anything.
Things are looking promising for my district, Jason Lewis better lose his fuckin seat. Not sure if 538 covers the AG or Governor races, but Wardlow and Johnson better not win.
Johnson's just a trump kiss-ass and Wardlow is a skeezy fuck. Ran publicly on being non-partisan yet was caught on tape raving about how he's gonna fire all the democrat-affiliated state lawyers at some private rally.
Also allegedly bullied some gay kid in HS to attempted suicide and when the kid came back to school he said "you couldn't even get that right". Not sure if it even made the news anywhere, the guy is still alive today and spoke about it on the Thom Hartmann program a while back which broadcasts here on AM radio.
This still means that even a single blue polling location not being as blue as expected can throw off the prediction way far.
But on the positive end of the news: Texas even getting close to flipping blue is a big, blaring, klaxon.
Hey, I'm looking forward to Republicans getting mad too. It's one or the other.
Laziness and apathy.
Just putting this out there if anyone plans on making Toxxs
No, don't make it more conservative! Them damn reds might win! NOOOOOOOOO
Fuck yes! LGBT rights are now all but secured in MA!
"d-did i make a good forecast mr silver?"
"yes model... *sniff* you did real good... *pulls trigger*"
This is ruining my nerves and I don’t even live in the US.
I just don’t fucking understand how people can vote for a side that openly hates on others, wants to take rights away from literally everyone but themselves, all the while their leadership is actively meddling in affairs around the world
So basically you came here to shit on the thread?
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