US Election Results 2018 - A blue wave in a sea of piss - Polidicks

Perhaps, but I think it's a safe bet Cruz won as lots of news outlets are calling it. Fox News called it, and I stand by what I said even when they call it for their side too.

Not premature, no. It's a projection. If you made an airflight plan while considering the weather and barometrics to your destination location you might not be able to predict the exact time that you'd land, but it'd be pretty safe to predict it within 30 minutes. This is the same sort of thing -- they're taking known and existant data and extrapolating it out to see what the numbers would be if they continue at the current trends. So long as it's not a super close race (e.g. 'too close/early to call') you can decide to put your faith in it if the margin of error is low enough and your statistical extrapolation is reliable enough to handle some wavering.

There's just three precincts left, all in Henrico/Chesterfield which are basically just suburbs of Richmond. The only thing I'm worried about are absentee votes - I don't know if those are being counted separately and not included in all the online lists, or if they get sent in from each precinct, or what. IF absentee ballots aren't being included in the totals yet, and if they lean Brat by enough, they might flip things since it's so close.

FiveThirtyEight was giving Beto a 10% chance anyway

That is true but look at 2018, the blue wave was not a thing even after two years of Trump's bullshit. The only way I can see to pull this country out of the GOP gutter is have a Democrat win in 2020, and add new states. Republicans would block every judge pick if the Democrat tried court packing

The issue with the Senate is that its geographical and not proportional based on population. So a state with 600k people has equal representation to a state with over 6 million

Still more precincts reporting in for Texas, the total number of votes is WAYYYY to low to even predict accurately who is a clear winner of the Senate.

The senate might be a bust but it looks like democrats are doing well in governerships

Races are always called super early because they can extrapolate data to come up with a conclusion. Would be interesting to see how often called races were wrong.

Hell yeah they are, most people are calling it for Laura Kelly in Kansas. I'm pumped

Not trying to come off as pessimistic, but if you're still holding out for Beto then you're going to be disappointed. There's a reason why ABC, CNN, and ABC have called it; they have the best analysts in the business for a reason.

The dream (and that's all it really was, a dream) was to take both the House and Senate this year. That would basically lock Trump down, it wouldn't be enough to impeach him without a good enough reason for Republican senators to vote him out (a supermajority is needed), but with full control of the legislature, they could basically staunch the wounds. Just taking the House will basically shut the legislature down for two years, and I think a full-blue 2020 is pretty likely, but it's still sad that things didn't swing a bit further.

https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/251786/788c4bb6-eb74-4611-90ce-a2bb5422d062/image.png unless a miracle happens tx isnt lookin too good tbh

beto should have won so god damn hard literally EVERY SINGLE POPULATION CENTER IN TEXAS WAS FUCKING BLUE THIS IS SOME GRADE A BULLSHIT THAT JUST MAKES ME SO FUCK ASS MAD

Ok so it's not counted votes, it's a predicted win according to what's counted already Even if odds are 99% cruz win I dont care about predictions and just the result once all the votes counted, kind of misleading of them to not call it prediction

These days you could probably make a super accurate algorithm that predicts all the races based off people's social media habits

Calm down, man. Only basic human rights and the lives of our future generations are at stake, no biggie.

So I guess Texas show itself to be a disappointment yet again. kind of hard to keep up your tough-guy act when you vote Ted Cruz.

like it or not that's how the election works. Honestly be happy for TX that they even got this close to electing a Dem. I'm surprised Beto did as well as he did and it gives me hope for future elections.

They do call it a prediction. They're "calling it" after all. If presented in context they'll say 'our analysts say' or 'according to polls' or 'based on exit polling'. Usually they drop it because it's usually right much like the weather report (with good meteorologists and meteorological equipment) is usually right.

Yeah if his percentage of the vote remains stable he is doing better than polls a couple weeks ago put him at. I remember polls in early October putting him 14 points below Cruz.

Only four more seats to victory guys, we're ahead 16 right now

time to drink myself to death texas had so much fucking hope and now it's just so fucking fucked https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSarZ7g1F-g

gonna jsut keep drinking lmao, gonna be hung over in my class tommorow lmao

The hysterics are getting to be a bit much also I love Iron and Wine.

Tester is looking pretty safe and Williams might have a path to victory,

It's not the same as that.

God dammit, rural America, I'm trying not

CBS says Gillum's conceding in Florida.

Not old enough to drink so I'll probably just continue to be in mental torture.