• Russia Closes Kerch Straight; Rams Ukrainian Navy Tugboat
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Slovakia minister says too early for a debate about extending sanctions on Russia after it seized three Ukrainian ships near Crimea [1] “Before we take measures, the facts must be cleared up,”
Yeah that's pretty typical for light armored vehicles like gunboats and armored cars, they're meant to stop small arms, not heavier stuff like the Shipunov cannons.
All of this makes me wonder what will happen to the Russian Federation once Vladimir Putin finally kicks the bucket. He's spent his entire political career dismantling what's left of any democratic institutions, the prospect of free and fair elections is basically nonexistent, and the mythology he has tried to tap into basically requires immortality on his part or else the entire framework falls apart.
From what I understand he's grooming Medvedev to take his place. The thing about strong men is they're not actually strong on their own, they just know how to look the part and have a lot of disposable subordinates do the dirty work, Putin got where he is by having an army backing him up, all Medvedev needs to continue the mythos is to take up the mantle.
Oligarchs will find a new 'strongman'. Remember where Putin came from. He was literal nobody in 1999. It only makes sense for the history to repeat itself. The only difference being that the economy was on the rise in 2000, which won't be the case in '24 or whenever Putin goes away. Worth noting that Putin doesn't really have that much of a cult of personality. Not much personality there. Not many people actually go "I love Putin", and the propaganda doesn't really insist on that. There's a cult of presidency, and it's kind of impersonal, to a degree. It is our country that is great, Putin merely serves "the country" and its "interests". So if he bites it, well, someone else will be loved just as much, as long as they "keep Russia strong and great". It's kind of weird like that.
I read this bit, after the Kemerovo mall fire, about the abstraction of problems in Russia that reminded me of Brazilian politics. I remember it from 2 articles, but could only find one. It's an opinion piece, and I can't vouch for how accurately it portrays the Russian political landscape, but I think the general point here is solid. Like everyone in Kemerovo, Putin knows what caused the tragedy. "There's no way to get a single piece of paper without paying, but once you pay, you'll have everything signed, that's the trouble," he said during the meeting with officials. The Russian leader is well aware that the system over which he presides is corrupt from top to bottom. But to him, and to every official from the hapless Kemerovo mayor on up, this is just a circumstance for which he bears no responsibility. He, and everyone in his chain of command, can comment on it like any critically-minded citizen. The result is a "common tragedy" for which no one is to blame -- and a checklist of photo and video opportunities for Putin to follow. Facing an angry crowd is not on that list, nor is genuine reflection about what needs to be fixed on a systemic level.  I remembered it because of what you said about the "cult of presidency". I feel like it's easier to make an "impersonal" cult when you can make the issues impersonal as well. When you act like corruption is always there, looming, but also not really there, in a physical place or done by real individuals or even in a measurable way. It's a problem, but only when it's done by your enemies, otherwise it can't be addressed. Doing so concretizes the problem, and it is not very weaponizable that way
Exactly this, yeah. Putin and his propaganda always, always make corruption into this mystical threat and not something they can stop, let alone fight.
Here's a little update if anyone still cares. The video is all in Russian with no CC, sadly. It would explain the fuckhueg holes in the ships. Details now emerge revealing that Russian aircraft, specially an Su-30M and a Ka-52 attack helicopter fired missiles at the Ukrainian naval vessels during the Kerch Strait attack earlier this week - Deputy head of Security Service Oleh Frolov https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLRPsPbcyXo
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