Major tornado outbreak predicted to occur today in the US.
99 replies, posted
https://i.imgur.com/L64hM7A.png
A dangerous day for weather is forecast for Monday in portions of Texas and Oklahoma.
"An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening," the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) warned.
The prediction center placed parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma under a "high risk" area for severe weather, the most serious of SPC’s five risk categories.
Storm Prediction Center May 20, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective O..
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/05/20/tornado-outbreak-dangerous-violent-severe-weather-forecast-monday/3738750002/
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/206535/7240c614-6d04-4aea-886e-17415230cdb5/83hGUFI.jpg
It's a "The sky's shitting tornadoes, ya'll" day.
I mean, there's a reason that area's called "tornado alley"
This is a very rare weather event, outbreaks like this are few and far between. A bunch of meteorologists are saying this could be the one of the worst we've ever seen.
^
This last time the set up was this bad, May 3rd, 1999 happened.
I'm in one of the areas that are in the highest risk categories.
They're basically predicting a EF2-EF5, baseball sized hail, major damaging winds, and flooding.
Yeah, but it isn't very often you get a supercell that is predicted to develop a tornado EF-2 upto EF-5 rating. They're saying if one drops it is gonna be huge and travel a long distance.
Most tornadoes around here land in rural areas and don't do much damage. If they do hit anything it is smaller towns and usually it is just property damage. They only run for a few miles and go back up.
I mean, this guy was spotted in Elk City, OK, this morning
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/230446/e25c45de-5014-45d8-a725-1ba08a7f7a52/image.png
You know if this dude is around shit is gonna get real.
This season has been really bad so far, lots of tornado outbreaks. But, this is the first storm that has created this level of threat. Most of the time we expect strong storms, hail, and MAYBE a tornado. Most of the ones landed are just EF-1 or EF-2.
This is what a EF-5 looks like
https://youtu.be/O1mHLogxh94
Oh my god the TIV is back. Now I'm beyond excited.
Everyone is freaking out, I went to get a thing of milk and the store was batshit insane with people buying stacks upon stacks of water.
You're not allowed to die, just so we're clear. If you do we're impounding your soul until your zombie can pay off the necromancer's fee.
While of course it sucks that it's happening, I'm kind of impressed they're making the prediction this far ahead. I remember back when predicting tornadoes even an hour out was considered impossible. If it turns out as bad as they say, getting the warning out this early will undoubtedly save lives.
In what way does this impact his enrollment into the skeleton war?
The video posted above people were saying "it's too cold for a tornado to form" the conditions today are identical to that day so a lot of it is based off that.
Yup. Back in the early 2000s, the warning was basically "there's a tornado on the ground and it's heading your way and will be there in x minutes". The technology has remarkably improved to the point the meterologists can look at a storm and say "this one will very likely be able to produce a tornado". I've known about the potential for today being bad since Friday.
They've been updating the forecasts like crazy over the weekend, and unfortunately, it just kept getting worse.
Yep, the forecast models only get worse. They're starting to release school early, a lot of the colleges are closed today, and other activities are being postponed.
I don't like to get all dramatic for the weather, but I got a really bad feeling about today and tomorrow.
Schools here were all closed for today by the end of the day yesterday.
I'm in the 4th year of my program and the college has closed a handful of times for icy weather. Today, it closed at noon because of the weather. I've literally never seen the college close outside of winter weather. Because I live on campus, I have to keep an extra close eye on the weather so I can grab my shit and fuck off to the student union because the apartments I'm in don't have shelter.
Hopefully everyone can get to a safe place should a tornado drop. And hopefully we don't have a repeat of that nasty El Reno tornado.
Stay safe everyone. I'll be watching the radar and updates from afar. I hope you guys have storm shelters close by.
I honestly don't get why in so many instances people don't GTFO ASAP upon seeing a tornado of this magnitude. Perhaps I don't understand enough about living there, but is it either 'ah its probably not gonna do much' or 'hey let's take a photo' kind of thing?
Hell like sometimes you still see reg people driving in and not turning the other direction and getting the fuck out
Most of the people you see taking pictures, not all, but most are professional storm chasers employed by the news channels. They relay important information about the weather conditions, confirm tornadoes on the ground, direction, etc. A lot of the information we know about how tornadoes work are from people who chase tornadoes and drop probes in the path of tornadoes that record data. They do a lot of valuable work and help save lives.
Also the charts in the OP are out of date, the SPC upgraded the probably to 45%
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1probotlk_20190520_1630_torn_prt.gif
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1130539684025831425?s=19
Nope, my city doesn't have anything like that. Even though they got nearly wiped out by a EF5 about 20-30 years ago.
I got my phones charged, lights charged, water, dogs food, dogs stuff, and the weather radio sitting idle on the alert band.
If you've ever seen one or been in one it is a spectacular sight to behold. These storms are just incredible and powerful. I've watched a supercell roll in from my backyard once, turn day into night, and drop a rain wrapped tornado. It is a scary, but incredible to witness.
Videos don't do the stuff justice, you can feel the air, temperature, wind, see everything change around you in just minutes if not seconds. A tornado sounds like a fucking freight train.
For those of you in the danger zone, here are some things to keep an eye out for on the radar.
First and foremost, cyclonic (counter-clockwise) rotation. If there's a line that is simultaneously heading east-northeast and rotating in a cyclonic fashion, I would definitely start making preparations to get to safety if you're in the path of that storm. If you have a basement or a storm shelter, start making ready to transport pets and the like down there, and be sure to warn your neighbors if you can. There may not be a tornado yet, but there will be. If you can't find a basement or any other secure part of the house, then you may wish to take a trip south. Most tornadoes usually maintain an east-northeast approach, with some exceptions (see: March 2013 El Reno EF-5).
The next thing to lookout for is a hook echo. These are the most obvious sign of a tornado (apart from visual confirmation obviously) , and are pretty easy to identify on radar.
https://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/birmingham_ref.png
If you see one of these on radar and there isn't a warning, someone isn't doing their job. If you see one coming for you, get to cover immediately.
You should also keep an eye out for bow echos. These are powerful storms that will have the potential to produce tornadoes.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/radared/radarfaq2/strong.jpg
Even if they don't produce tornadoes, they can still produce damaging winds.
Lastly, be on the lookout visually for tornadoes. This one is obvious, but the tornado itself might not be. Compare what you're observing to what's on radar. If you see a hook echo, but all you see visually is rain, get to cover anyways because the tornado might be rain wrapped.
Hope this proves useful, stay safe everyone.
It is a good description for the people who don't have to deal with this type of weather. Shows them how they do radar indicated threats.
The safest place is indoors, an interior room, without windows. Or better yet a reinforced storm shelter which many people in the region have. Running from Tornados is dangerous. They are very fast and unpredictable. It's best to assume you won't outrun it. ESPECIALLY extremely dangerous, rapidly growing tornadoes like what might happen today. The extremely dangerous El Reno Tornado killed three professional and well respected chasers because they got stuck in the wrong spot and couldn't outrun it. They we're cautious, responsible professionals that got stuck.
https://youtu.be/oPrc8z4VW4w
My new camera came in today so I'll record some shit if I can.
My parents live an hour South of Tulsa. Grew up in that small town and all my life never had a tornado cause significant damage but still leaves me worried for my folks
I saw a tornado from a distance many years ago in Alberta. They're a sight to behold. They're simultaneously beautiful and terrifying. It's raw nature.
More recently I had a tornado warned cell make a direct hit on my home. I got the warning on my phone and I watched it approach on radar. I've had warnings before but this felt different. It got Erie outside and then in a matter of seconds it got extremely violent. I've never seen the wind pick up that fast. Trees were blowing sideways, branches were flying. I was looking out the window like an idiot and I saw it coming down the road. Idk if it was a tornado or a down burst or what, but I saw a mess of wind and rain coming down the street and I ran to the bathroom as fast as I could. I grabbed the dog and dragged him with me. As it passed over the house it was loud and violent. I could hear stuff hitting the roof, the lights were flickering. It was loud. They really do sound like trains. It was unbelievable
The thing is, it was nothing. A tornado never got confirmed here. If there was a tornado it was a small EF-0. I think it was likely a down burst or one of those Tornados that just kinda skip around. Either way, it wreaked our yard and broke a tree that crushed my dad's truck. A few other neighbors around here shared similar sentiment. Everyone said "it felt like a tornado came through!". some people on the same street, just about 50 yards down the road, showed no signs of a storm.
I've been fascinated with Tornados forever, but never thought it would happen to me. The odds feel so low. I remember laying in bed that night feeling like I dodged a bullet. It might have not been a tornado. But what if it was? We lucked out. What if that was a bigger Tornado? I'd be homeless right now and my pets would likely be dead. We didn't have time to get all our shit into the bathroom before it hit. We didn't have time. It was a chilling thought.
I knew what to look for on the radar. So I took this pic moments before it got bad:
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/1861/47f96c2f-9989-4502-addc-d35ea3bda072/441727946.png
Which segways me into my next point,
One of the best ways to determine a tornado on radar is with a velocity map. The map shows the velocity of precipitation in relation to the Doppler radar. So precipitation moving away from the radar is shown in red, and precip moving towards the radar is shown in green. So when you see a dot of red and green close together, it implies a tight rotation in that area which can be Tornado.
It's important to know a tornado is rarely confirmed unless there's a visual of it. And never officially confirmed until the NWS conducts a survey of the damage. So all these indicators of Tornados aren't always right. But they should be treated as serious possibilities. It's better to be safe than sorry.
A tornado watch means there's a chance Tornados might develop. A tornado warning means there is a radar indicated rotation in that area, and the box is placed to show the direction and area it might affect. Tornado warnings should always be taken seriously.
Here are some other examples of the velocity map in action in conjunction with the standard reflectivity map:
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/1861/b7d66cc3-1bbb-4c54-928c-8f8f90160a81/Screenshot_20190505-180525.png
This was a visually confirmed Tornado not long ago in Lubbock. It's textbook for identifiers. Strong echo hook and strong rotation.
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/1861/5d45e719-0070-436b-b121-ff920be398a7/206a1d77-fb26-4fcd-97b8-da03320a16ae.gif
This one is a bit more sloppy. The biggest hint is the velocity map.
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/1861/26c34ef1-8a9c-4101-bc6a-050dc683078c/812b1420-b46e-485b-8e93-64495efbacc1.gif
This one is pretty sloppy as well, but you can see the cell pass just south of Santa Fe.
Tornados can be spotted on radar if you know what to look for. If you live in a place where these things are a threat, I recommend learning how. The app I use is called RadarScope, but you need to pay for the ability to use splitscreen. There's also the ability to make gifs built into the app. It's pretty nifty. During hurricane Ike I was spotting rotations before the NWS issued warnings.
Anyway, this is getting long so I'm gonna abruptly end it here. Be safe everyone!
Here's a detailed analysis of this storm, for anyone curious:
https://youtu.be/jVTs55W3Iag
Speaking of El Reno:
https://twitter.com/seanmorrisWX/status/1130563781778694145?s=19
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